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Monday, September 14, 2026

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Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether ALRM’s decline is a false alarm.

ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

From X

@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$BSP lockup comes right at the end of the year....might want to file that date away, and go read the S1. Difficult to find a more flawed business model and aggregios valuation then this. It is Upland reincarnated and perhaps Valeant if they start getting dodgy on their receivables as financing starts drying up. BSP business is simply a game of removing almost all costs of broken, zombie software companies (bring r&d to near zero, remove a bulk of the employees, jack the price to any residual customers, report improved metrics, do not report the metrics you do not want to show (stopped reporting NRR, other metrics post IPO). An Italian based rollup of a collection of 2012 point solutions (Vimeo, Brightcove, Eventbrite, AOL (yes that AOL), and a bunch of others that were failed investments on their own right and in decline. Very little in shared synergies. The cadence of deals and size of deals has been dramatically increasing since 2003 (as you would expect). sub 300m in 2023, 800m in 2024, 2B in 2025, and already at 4B for 2026. This law of large numbers will continue to have to scale to continue to be able to show the financial wizardly of improved adjusted profits. Because as the cohorts exhaust the initial boost from price increases and cost cuts the businesses start more aggressively shedding their customer base (increasing the melt of the ice cube), so before these metrics infect their financials they need new deals to over run the melt (not a coincidence deal flow is faster and bigger). And thats the game, the equity price (and future dilution a certainty) (as they are around 6-7B net debt once they close their recent acquisition, this is post the ipo raise too). Once/if the story, law of numbers cannot run anymore to the right with financing, the gig will be up. Plenty of prior versions of this exact model as predecessors just go look at Upland software $UPLD. Won't end well but weird float dynamics with the A shares, IPO, lockup (12/28) and the aggressiveness of software/semi currently that is squeezing lots of more obvious AI disrupted software vendors, so its obvious where their ends up ultimately but might be treacherous on its path there, certainly tough until the float increases to short. Should be fun to watch, and an opportunity once liquidity opens up
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

Workiva $WK came through our monitor when Meditation Capital @timothyhliu5 ran a deep dive on it. The Fund has been buying application software at 2–3x sales after 105 expert calls, arguing infrastructure and cybersecurity have already repriced as AI winners while application names have not. It describes Workiva as the near-monopoly platform for SEC reporting: 95% of the Fortune 100, 89% of the S&P 500, an estimated ~50% of US filers and ~85% of filer market capitalization.

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Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B
Sylence Capital 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)

TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…

PTON $2.1B
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks

NET Power (NPWR):

NET Power’s $1.80 shares are paired with January $2 covered calls for 40 cents as the company pivots from carbon capture to Permian…

NPWR $161M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private

Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…

PRTH $479M
Yet Another Value Podcast 3 clicks
HWKN · short

Hawkins INC

Hawkins (HWKN) faces margin pressure as cost increases and municipal budget constraints weigh on its water-chemical distribution business.

HWKN $2.6B
Value Investors Club 1 click

XPEL's Manufacturing Build-Out

XPEL plans to spend $75 million to $150 million on manufacturing, targeting 52-54% gross margins and high-20s EBIT margins by 2028.

XPEL $1.2B
Hidden Gems Investing

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