TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)
TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com initiation.
Saturday, September 12, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating decline: Networking -37% (largest category), Product sales -18%, zero margin/ low quality Professional services now 15% of sales. Cut FY2026 top and bottom-line guide by 7% w further cuts almost certain to come. Trading at 14x 2026 guidance vs peers at 6-8x.
catechwilliams on X
$ACA Levered roll-up (4x levered) hodgepodge of low-quality cap intensive commodity businesses w struggling end-markets (sub-scale aggregates, building products, ag). Negative organic growth w unrealistic guidance. Forced to sell an asset to avoid covenant breach. 30x P/E
catechwilliams on X
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
Voss Capital on X
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 ALM $4.2BJXN $8.8B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.4B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 9301 $3.3B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.5B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.6B
- Forager Funds Management July 2026 4733 $4BTTEK $9.1B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 AUTO $5BKXS $3.4B
On Holding $ONON: I Bought the Shoes First, Then the Stock
On Holding $ONON combines a high-margin direct-to-consumer footwear model with replacement-driven demand, after Q2 2026 sales rose 21.6%…
X-Energy Could Be Building One Of Nuclear Energy's Most Valuable Platforms
X-energy targets $1.8 billion in annual revenue and more than 42% gross margins by 2032 through reactor IP, project services and…
Simple Investment Ideas 2 clicks
The Fed Is Going to Lose the Bond Market and I Found the Asset That Gets Paid When It Does
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TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)
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Oklo Inc.: The AI Power Trade Is Getting More Tangible
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The Curious Analyst 1 click
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Lumen is shedding consumer lines for data-center services; $9.2 billion of deferred revenue, up 72%, supports its enterprise order book…
MDA Space: Houston, We Have a New Position
MDA Space is added to the Aurelion Index after hiring engineers, signing large contracts and expanding facilities; the thesis cites…
Cleveland-Cliffs: 2027 Could Be A Very Big Year
Cleveland-Cliffs' 2027 upside depends on contract resets and Stelco earnings, while management directs free cash flow to deleveraging…
The Bullionaire 1 click
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Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
MGRC · long Mcgrath Rentcorp
McGrath RentCorp's conservatively financed hard assets, pricing growth and a struggling competitor, WSC, underpin the long thesis.
Scholar Rock: Manufacturing Noise Obscures A Muscle-Targeted Franchise
Scholar Rock’s apitegromab could become the first muscle-targeted SMA therapy by September 2026, but manufacturing setbacks and a…
Equity Eagle 
Miami International Holdings (MIAX)
Miami International Holdings, the No. 4 options exchange with 17% share, trades at 12x forward EBITDA despite 35% revenue growth, 54%…
Quick Value #328 - Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)
Cal-Maine, the largest U.S. egg producer, trades at 1.6x book versus a 2.1x 20-year median, with net cash and investments equal to 23% of…
STNE 2026-08-25 StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
StoneCo's buybacks and special dividend produced roughly 39% H1 shareholder yield as Brazil's rate cuts slow and competition persists.
IWA Research 3 clicks
Planet Fitness: The $10 Gym That Grew Into a Franchise Machine
Planet Fitness runs 2,930 clubs and 21.5 million memberships through an asset-light franchise model funded by $15 monthly dues, royalties…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
What Top Funds are Buying & Selling
June 2026 13F filings show Baupost doubling Genuine Parts ahead of its 2027 split and Ratan Capital making Silicon Motion its largest…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
SA 2026-08-20 Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside
Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…
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Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
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