Is OpenAI the Achilles’ Heel of the US Economy? | The Weekly Wrap
OpenAI's potential failure could expose the US economy's growing dependence on AI capital spending, according to Steve Eisman.
Friday, September 4, 2026
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catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW RFG sale is delayed again (latest 10-Q stated will close end of July). This is the 3rd delay. Now unlikely to close at all. Will require a restatement of the last 2 quarters, revealing much lower earnings (likely negative EPS, negative FCF). https://t.co/lVsZZT37Cf
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW USDA crackdown on Mexican avocado corruption significantly erroding import vols (region where $CVGW sources all product). S. America taking share at accelerating rate as customers (ie. $CMG, grocers) shift suppliers. $CVGW sales vol -13% MRQ. Current Q could be a disaster. https://t.co/KJgK8fXbM4
Investor Letters
All letters- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $82BMA $497B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $258B
- Fred Alger Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMZN $2.7TGOOGL $4T
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.4BSUSRF $272M
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.4BSAGI delisted
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.8B
- Forager Funds Management July 2026 4733 $3.9BSGE $12B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 4549 $472M8011 $224M
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Zoltan Ban 10 clicks
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)
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Selling Where They Ain’t
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TOYO · short Toyo CO LTD
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Chevron Stock Is A Bargain Amid Venezuela Deal
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Bay Area Ideas 6 clicks
AVGO US - Do Nothing Pending The Close On Thursday 3 September - Q3 FY10/26 Earnings Review.
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Tariq Dennison 6 clicks
Notes from a Dasher Shift, and the Drone Delivery Future
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Quantryon Capital 11 clicks
Top 8 Rebound Stocks for Sep’26
Genuine Parts Company is one of eight potential rebound stocks on RC’s September 2026 watchlist.
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