A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the category has reached a cyclical bottom.
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
From X
catechwilliams on X
$EXLS Highly innovative founder-CEO rapidly taking share w AI-based services. High-teens topline growth w expanding margins, higher value-add mix to attractive end-markets. 17x P/E yet to reflect business transformation. 100% FCF to buybacks. Winning customers from $ACN $DXC $WIT
Little Owl Research on X
8/ There is a lot more to talk about (24% sequential increase in new home sales, ward village condo sales etc.) but I am hungry. So to wrap up, if you're selling $HHH on this quarterly report you do not understand what you own and I will be buying your shares at tomorrow's open.
Little Owl Research on X
1/ So first things first, $HHH missed on top and bottom line. Am I concerned? Absolutely not. Value was created for shareholders and I'll briefly explain why...
catechwilliams on X
$OII Niche leader in subsea robotics at 12x P/E. Offshore rig count accelerating (70% share), A&D growing DD, new autonomous tech a major growth driver in other end markets (lifts, etc). Investor day next week will showcase products and new LT targets. >50% NTM upside, IMO.
catechwilliams on X
@TheMuffinMan28 SRS is a PE rollout, bit of a hodgepodge of assets. Concentration in landscaping, pool and roofing. No exclusive relationships (GMS is for $AWI, regional duopoly across most categories). End customers are small homebuilders (more competitive, less scale benefit for distributors).
catechwilliams on X
$GMS Underfollowed building products distributor, HSD growth, favorable mix shift/ margin, tracking to beat estimates, trading at 10x EPS, 7x EBITDA. Peers at >50% higher multiples. $HD just acquired lower quality peer SRS for 17x EBITDA. GMS = $240 or +150% at that multiple.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Situation getting : 1) being investigated by SEC, DOJ for bribery, cartel dealings, 2) intensely competitive biz, losing customers/ share w zero earnings; 3) sale of struggling prepared segment faltering. None of this is priced-in yet. Next 2 quarters likely a disaster.
catechwilliams on X
$LYTS Very attractive acq of EMI following successful prior M&A blueprint--significant cross-selling op, cost reduction, expands product set which further solidifies dominant national position. Seeing +50% upside to shares from here.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $141M082920 $999M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $106MEVGGF $17B
- Royce Investment Partners year-to-date period ended 6/30/26 BLBD $2BMMS $3B
- Palm Valley Capital Q2 2026
- Protean Funds June 2026 CINT $224MIDDWF $9.5B
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5BDGXX $406M
- Sequoia Fund First Half of 2026
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8TGOOGL $4.2T
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Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
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catechwilliams
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Fierce_beast
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