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Saturday, August 29, 2026

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@marginofdanger 2 clicks

marginofdanger on X

I don't know if I fully agree with that. $CBBI trades at 0.4x for two reasons: 1) OTC listing and 2) no buyback. If there was a company sponsored buyback, it would probably trade at 0.6-0.7x and therefore the buybacks would be less accretive. Also if you look at my numbers you'll see that the projected share price in the non-buyback scenario is $16.16 in five years plus $2.50 in dividends vs. $19.10 in the buyback scenario. Pretty close. If you're a short-term holder, you want the buyback to re-rate this to 0.6-0.7x. If you want to long-term compound, it's not clear the buyback is that much better to me.
@marginofdanger 1 click

marginofdanger on X

$CBBI followers- the tables below show two scenarios assuming a sale in 5 years at 100% of TBV: 1) Investor reinvests the .50/yr dividend into more shares 2) CBBI suspends dividend and instead does a share repurchase The analysis shows that the results are roughly the same (BEFORE TAXES). The point here is to show that if you reinvest your dividend you can somewhat replicate the economics of a buyback. One assumption that is likely optimistic in the company buyback scenario is that they'd continue to be able to buy back at 0.4x TBV. If you tinker with that, the buyback is less valuable. cc: @mwphnh

Investor Letters

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The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb

Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.

STRR $37MHHS $34M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 8 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $4B
scuttleblurb 17 clicks

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks
GPK · long

Graphic Packaging Holding CO

Graphic Packaging (GPK) is pitched as a long with $22 fair value, implying roughly 100% upside, based on its low-cost paper-based packaging…

GPK $2.8B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

SSP $292MMNRO $422M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 9 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $725M
The Value Road 13 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $855M
Capital Employed 9 clicks

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