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Saturday, August 29, 2026

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@marginofdanger 3 clicks

marginofdanger on X

$LIEN is an interesting small cap BDC. $13.26/share NAV, stock last $10.20/share, dividend yield of 13.3%. Company is doing an all-stock deal with $REFI which will essentially double the asset base to c. $800 million. Larger asset base should help narrow NAV discount given economies of scale and better cost of capital. Portfolio is largely cannabis credit, which is high coupon / low leverage and the $LIEN mgmt team has done a good job with its credit underwriting.
@marginofdanger 2 clicks

marginofdanger on X

$LIEN is an interesting small cap BDC. $13.26/share NAV, stock last $10.20/share, dividend yield of 13.3%. Company is doing an all-stock deal with $REFI which will essentially double the asset base to over $600 million. Larger asset base should help narrow NAV discount given economies of scale and better cost of capital. Portfolio is largely cannabis credit, which is high coupon / low leverage and the $LIEN mgmt team has done a good job with its credit underwriting.
@majgeoinvesting 1 click

Maj Soueidan on X

With OCC, using historical backlog, conversion multiples, the backlog implies that they can report $.25 EPS. The wildcard here is two things. 1. Have operating expenses stabilized? 2. Will backlog remain strong so that the company can at least hold that new level of EPS if they achieve it? To be clear, a bullish EPS outlier scenario could occur because I used the historical low-end backlog to revenue multiplier. I haven’t modeled $RFIL. I’m just using their shareholder letter as a barometer, where they talk about stronger markets and more visibility. It’s worth noting that both companies are moving into their seasonally stronger quarters. They’re also both benefiting from a recovery in their legacy telecom markets. Furthermore, I don’t think either of them have seen much contribution from their data center business. So, hopefully, you have this perfect storm situation where their legacy markets, along with new markets are hitting it in stride at the same time Personally, I think RFIL is the better company, long-term, but that OCC can have the biggest wow factor for the quarter. RFIL has done a better job at addressing its entire business plan to reduce cyclicality, even within its legacy markets. I’m not convinced OCC has done that.
@ActAccordingly 3 clicks

PAA Research on X

Man in just 48 hours we went from the $DRAM bulls tap-dancing and high fiving on the "incredible" $160B Q/Q (it is crazy) increase in supply and purchase agreements from $NVDA to: "The memory names have held up well on a relative basis the past two days".... Two golden rules apply here: 1) The market will pick the path of the most pain 2) Karma has everyone's address so please stop with your victory laps, lectures, and bear trouncing. This game is hard and unforgiving.

Investor Letters

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The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb

Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.

STRR $37MHHS $35M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 8 clicks

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks
HGV · long

Hilton Grand Vacations

Hilton Grand Vacations faces an inflection point in profitability growth and free cash flow generation.

HGV $2.8B
Value Investors Club

Vidrala

Vidrala has grown from a Spanish glass-container maker into a multi-country packaging platform with expanding Latin American exposure.

VDRFF $3.6B
smallvalue. 6 clicks

ROAS to Riches

Entravision’s Smadex AdTech segment grew Q1 2026 revenue 204% and generated over $34 million of EBIT, becoming 78% of sales and the core…

EVC $727M
The Mikro Kap 3 clicks

Forgive me Father, I have Sabled.

Sable Offshore restarted Santa Ynez oil flows under a Defense Production Act order, targeting 50,000 barrels daily and a path to 60,000…

SOC $835M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 3 clicks

NFE Bond Update

New Fortress Energy’s restructuring cancels its 12% 2029 notes for 94.3% of BrazilCo, $974 million of New NFE preferred and 25.8% of New…

NFE $72M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

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