$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
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Laughing Water Capital on X
@yummyCenturyEgg @MGardnerDA1235 @dylan55917 thank you for the work you did on $NN. I can see why you reached the conclusion you did when only looking at the trees you wanted to see. However, industry pros will tell you that the forest is very different, and that this spectrum is likely to be quite valuable. We will see.
Rusholme Capital on X
How ironic is it that $DAVE, a multi-billion fintech, relies on tips from its payday borrowers for its revenue. Capitalism at its finest!
catechwilliams on X
$PRIM $500M new project broke ground. Not deep on the name but this is a pretty massive program for $PRIM and does not appear anyone noticed. "430-megawatt development from Arevon Energy, an offshoot of utility and energy contractor Primoris Services Corp" https://t.co/1egNflZ1X8
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating decline: Networking -37% (largest category), Product sales -18%, zero margin/ low quality Professional services now 15% of sales. Cut FY2026 top and bottom-line guide by 7% w further cuts almost certain to come. Trading at 14x 2026 guidance vs peers at 6-8x.
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
catechwilliams on X
Meanwhile disintermediation by OEMs going direct is accelerating. See recent commentary from partners $CSCO, $PANW $DELL, etc. $PLUS has zero discernable benefit from $NVDA and AI.
Investor Letters
All letters- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 ADMA $2.1BKD $2.7B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 CENX $3.9BCOHU $2.7B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 CNX $4.9BFBIN $4.8B
- Horizon Kinetics 2nd Quarter 2026 MIAX $3.8B
- Ariel Investments Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 HAE $4.9BMSGE $3.7B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q2 2026 CALY $2.6BHCC $4.6B
- Palm Harbour Capital second quarter ALHG $2B111770 $2.3B
- Third Avenue Management three months ended June 30, 2026 6951 $2.3BTDW $4.4B
$VEON: a busted EM telecom hiding a 4x? | Samit Umatiya, UIG Funds
VEON’s 84% Kyivstar stake and JazzCash underpin a sum-of-the-parts case for 4x upside, despite its sanctioned shareholder, capital…
Under The Hood, Wingstop Inc. ($WING)
Wingstop generates most of its $697 million revenue from franchise royalties across a 3,153-restaurant, 98%-franchised system while…
A Hardware Multiple on a Software Powerhouse
A software powerhouse posts a record quarter while trading at a 52-week low, raising a valuation disconnect between its business model and…
Vidrala
Vidrala has grown from a Spanish glass-container maker into a multi-country packaging platform with expanding Latin American exposure.
AXT’s Tongmei Problem: Great Asset, Fragile Economics
AXT’s 85.5%-owned Tongmei depends on offshore pricing, export approvals and transfer-pricing economics despite AI-optics demand.
Shift4 Company Podcast Episode Released!
Shift4 built its payments business by acquiring gateway nodes and migrating merchants to its processing platform; revenue has compounded…
My Biggest Position: A Monopoly Priced for Failure
A former value-investor darling, down 50%, pairs a monopoly with a recurring-revenue razor-and-blade business; debt paydown, margin…
Haw Par Corporation Limited
Haw Par combines Tiger Balm’s stable cash flows with property, leisure and healthcare operations plus stakes in UOB and UOL.
National Beverage Update
National Beverage’s rare share repurchase is framed as a buy signal, with 50% upside projected.
Tis The (Earnings) Season
Argentine banks, tariff-exposed stocks and Customer’s Bancorp anchor an earnings-season watchlist after Milei’s election victory,…
TDC · short Teradata CORP
Teradata is a short as its on-premises analytics business declines while enterprises shift workloads to cloud-native platforms.
When extend and pretend is a virtue
Upstart says longer repayment terms lifted Q1 debt-settlement acceptances 50%, but does not disclose delinquency changes or the number of…
Sarepta Risk and the FDA
Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.
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catechwilliams
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Conor Maguire | Value Situations
Convequity
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Deep Sail Capital
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DOMO Capital Management, LLC
Edwin Dorsey
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Fierce_beast
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Idea Brunch
JabroniCoin.USD
John_Hempton
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KEDM.com
Laughing Water Capital
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marginofdanger
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Mike
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SG
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Timyan Bank Alert
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ToffCap
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Voss Capital
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Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
- Aikya Investment Management
- Akre Capital Management, LLC
- Alluvial Capital Management
- Alpinum Investment Management AG
- Ariel Investments
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- Sequoia Fund
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