Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and cash-flow breakeven in Q4 2026.
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
catechwilliams on X
$OXM Very strong holiday selling season based on credit card data & other trackers for core Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands w very minimal promotion or discounts vs modest consensus growth expectations. Stock at 9x EPS, will be providing prelim numbers at ICR in 2 weeks.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just announced a substantial new project win. Estimated to be $25M in revenue to Daktronics. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs are among those exploring potential upgrades for next season, all of which are exisiting customers. https://t.co/dcn6TcQNr4
catechwilliams on X
$DCGO NYC Controller revokes Mayor Adams' authority to grant emergency order contracts (backdoor, no-bid). The order specifically focuses on DCGO's lucrative "asylum seeker services." NYC = 50% of DCGO revenue. https://t.co/7NUJ0i28Ry
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Another strong result: sales grew 6%, $0.27 EPS (ex non-cash convert expense) brings LTM to nearly $1.40 or 8x EPS. Don't see a lot of growing, industry leaders w strong FCF profiles at that multiple. No banks cover it, that will change soon. CFO at 2 conferences this week.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Perhaps the most attractive long I’ve seen in years. Dominant \position in a category growing >20%. Major business overhaul taking hold after years of underperformance. Stock trades at 7x EPS/ 13% FCF yield due to low awareness of these structural improvements (see below)..
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $164M082920 $946M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $91MSTOR-B $1.7B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 ACA $7.2BADMA $2.1B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 BTG $9.9B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 ACI $5.9BCNX $4.9B
- Horizon Kinetics 2nd Quarter 2026 INFL LB $6.8B
- Ariel Investments Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 CLB $502MHAE $4.9B
- White Falcon Capital Management Q2 2026 EPAM $5.8BTOI $5.3B
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…
Entravision Q2 Notes
Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…
$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost
UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.
40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)
Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…
$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove
Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…
These Power Stocks (Not Semis) Are The Real AI Beneficiaries, Say Investing Brother Duo Up 1,300%
Pernas Research names Capstone Energy and Stabilis Solutions as AI data-center power beneficiaries, alongside Tenable, Upwork, Wise and…
My Pitch Deck Slide Show from the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference
Butler National Corporation is the subject of a stock pitch presented at the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference.
DEC-laration of independence
Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…
Perimeter Solutions: 2Q26 Business Recap
Perimeter Solutions’ 2Q26 revenue rose 31%, while operating income fell 11% as USDA pricing and DLA delivery timing hurt Fire Safety; it…
COUR · long Coursera INC
Coursera's combination with Udemy creates an online learning platform serving over 270 million learners with hundreds of thousands of…
Floor & Decor: 2Q26 Business Update
Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…
A Venezuela Lottery Ticket for 41 Cents
Lionheart Holdings’ 41-cent CUBWW warrants hinge on a SPAC merger valuing KEO Energy’s Venezuelan PetroUrdaneta stake at $1 billion, versus…
[scuttleslops] BLDR, RYAN, APG, GFL, FND
Builders FirstSource reported Q2 2026 sales down 9% to $3.9 billion as weak housing demand and aggressive competitor pricing cut EBITDA…
Floor & Decor 2Q'26: Tentative Green Shoots
Floor & Decor held 2026 guidance after a 2Q beat, with comps improving through June; tariff refunds lifted margins and may fund pricing…
Vistance Networks (NASDAQ: VISN)
Vistance Networks plans a large post-Ruckus-sale dividend, leaving Aurora Networks valued below 4x guided EBITDA after $1.88 billion of…
Cematrix Corp ($CEMX.TO) FINS Review
Cematrix posted record Q2 revenue of $18.7 million, up 76%, and $3.5 million of net income, while backlog fell 9% from year-end.
[OTCM] Listings for the rest of us
OTC Markets gives smaller, distressed, and lightly disclosed companies a trading venue outside NYSE and Nasdaq, with lower listing barriers…
This Stock Just Got Cheaper on Better Numbers
A debt-free American manufacturer now trades at roughly 7x annualized Q2 EBITDA, with $7.35 per share in net cash and a tender floor 18.5%…
Entravision: Another Whale Has Emerged
Entravision’s Q1 filings contain a new footnote disclosure pointing to a potential second large advertiser beyond its Hong Kong customer,…
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