$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Sunday, August 16, 2026
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From X
catechwilliams on X
$LYTS Very attractive acq of EMI following successful prior M&A blueprint--significant cross-selling op, cost reduction, expands product set which further solidifies dominant national position. Seeing +50% upside to shares from here.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT. Over the last 3 weeks have won several large upgrades—Colorado, UVa football stadiums. Each $15M projects to boost backlog and revenue >10% in the next quarter, further solidifying dominant market position. https://t.co/JFou9jCYxr
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Est $50-70M revenue project. 4 jumbotrons, 5 ribbons + software contract for 2 stadiums. https://t.co/ANVOiAiZHn
catechwilliams on X
$OXM Very strong holiday selling season based on credit card data & other trackers for core Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands w very minimal promotion or discounts vs modest consensus growth expectations. Stock at 9x EPS, will be providing prelim numbers at ICR in 2 weeks.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just announced a substantial new project win. Estimated to be $25M in revenue to Daktronics. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs are among those exploring potential upgrades for next season, all of which are exisiting customers. https://t.co/dcn6TcQNr4
catechwilliams on X
$DCGO NYC Controller revokes Mayor Adams' authority to grant emergency order contracts (backdoor, no-bid). The order specifically focuses on DCGO's lucrative "asylum seeker services." NYC = 50% of DCGO revenue. https://t.co/7NUJ0i28Ry
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Another strong result: sales grew 6%, $0.27 EPS (ex non-cash convert expense) brings LTM to nearly $1.40 or 8x EPS. Don't see a lot of growing, industry leaders w strong FCF profiles at that multiple. No banks cover it, that will change soon. CFO at 2 conferences this week.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Perhaps the most attractive long I’ve seen in years. Dominant \position in a category growing >20%. Major business overhaul taking hold after years of underperformance. Stock trades at 7x EPS/ 13% FCF yield due to low awareness of these structural improvements (see below)..
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $164M082920 $946M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $91MSTOR-B $1.7B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q2 2026 CALY $2.6BHCC $4.6B
- Cedar Creek Partners Q2 ‘26 ENDI $132MEXCE $1.3B
- LVS Advisory first half of 2026 VISN $1.5B
- Palm Harbour Capital second quarter ALHG $2B082920 $946M
- Third Avenue Management three months ended June 30, 2026 6951 $2.3BTDW $4.3B
- Patient Capital Management second quarter of 2026 GENI $1.6BPGEN $2.8B
$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost
UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.
40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)
Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…
These Power Stocks (Not Semis) Are The Real AI Beneficiaries, Say Investing Brother Duo Up 1,300%
Pernas Research names Capstone Energy and Stabilis Solutions as AI data-center power beneficiaries, alongside Tenable, Upwork, Wise and…
My Pitch Deck Slide Show from the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference
Butler National Corporation is the subject of a stock pitch presented at the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference.
DEC-laration of independence
Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…
Perimeter Solutions: 2Q26 Business Recap
Perimeter Solutions’ 2Q26 revenue rose 31%, while operating income fell 11% as USDA pricing and DLA delivery timing hurt Fire Safety; it…
A Venezuela Lottery Ticket for 41 Cents
Lionheart Holdings’ 41-cent CUBWW warrants hinge on a SPAC merger valuing KEO Energy’s Venezuelan PetroUrdaneta stake at $1 billion, versus…
Vistance Networks (NASDAQ: VISN)
Vistance Networks plans a large post-Ruckus-sale dividend, leaving Aurora Networks valued below 4x guided EBITDA after $1.88 billion of…
Cematrix Corp ($CEMX.TO) FINS Review
Cematrix posted record Q2 revenue of $18.7 million, up 76%, and $3.5 million of net income, while backlog fell 9% from year-end.
[OTCM] Listings for the rest of us
OTC Markets gives smaller, distressed, and lightly disclosed companies a trading venue outside NYSE and Nasdaq, with lower listing barriers…
HRBR · long Harbor Diversified INC
Harbor Diversified trades at about $0.65 per $1.00 of cash, with at least $150 million in cash as its sole asset.
This Stock Just Got Cheaper on Better Numbers
A debt-free American manufacturer now trades at roughly 7x annualized Q2 EBITDA, with $7.35 per share in net cash and a tender floor 18.5%…
Entravision: Another Whale Has Emerged
Entravision’s Q1 filings contain a new footnote disclosure pointing to a potential second large advertiser beyond its Hong Kong customer,…
Seer
Seer trades at $2.04 against $3.90 per share of net cash as activists press a board that rejected five buyout proposals and won reelection.
Biorem Inc. ($BRM.V) FINS Review
Biorem reported 66% revenue growth and over 260% profit growth after trading at 11.3 times earnings and 5.9 times EV/EBITDA.
Hidden in Plane Sight
An aerospace company’s profitable core is obscured by a long-running FAA development program; approval, abandonment, or shrinking losses…
AirIQ Inc. ($IQ.V) FINS Review
AirIQ’s 2025 revenue rose 17% to $6.5 million, but tax reassessments cut net income 50% and lifted its P/E to 144x.
Gatekeeper Systems ($GSI.V) FINS Review
Gatekeeper Systems’ revenue rebound is overshadowed by $19.3 million in nine-month operating cash burn, swelling inventory and overdue…
RI(N)sing higher
RIN prices near all-time highs reflect tighter renewable-fuel mandates, a shrinking credit bank, and biodiesel production shortfalls.
$PRKS: SeaWorld, an 8% cash yield, and a possible 80% short squeeze | Hawkins Entrekin
United Parks trades at 8x EBITDA with an 8%+ unlevered cash yield, aggressive buybacks and roughly 80% effective short interest, while…
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Conor Maguire | Value Situations
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DOMO Capital Management, LLC
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Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
- Aikya Investment Management
- Akre Capital Management, LLC
- Alluvial Capital Management
- Alpinum Investment Management AG
- Ariel Investments
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- Sequoia Fund
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