Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)
Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with under 1x leverage.
Monday, September 28, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Delta just significantly expanded its Digital ID program. This service is free, more efficient than Clear and now available in Clear's core markets. Other majors will have to follow in order to compete on service. Seems like this could kill $YOU in pretty short order. https://t.co/tgfebZZCWK
catechwilliams on X
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
catechwilliams on X
$OXM Very strong holiday selling season based on credit card data & other trackers for core Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands w very minimal promotion or discounts vs modest consensus growth expectations. Stock at 9x EPS, will be providing prelim numbers at ICR in 2 weeks.
Idea Brunch on X
Brian Bellinger is one of the best small-cap investors you've never heard of. His Idea Brunch pick from 2021 has more than tripled and his new interview is one of our favorites Read the full interview with Idea Pitches below $JAKK $INSP https://t.co/HKpmjqWyic
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just announced a substantial new project win. Estimated to be $25M in revenue to Daktronics. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs are among those exploring potential upgrades for next season, all of which are exisiting customers. https://t.co/dcn6TcQNr4
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Another strong result: sales grew 6%, $0.27 EPS (ex non-cash convert expense) brings LTM to nearly $1.40 or 8x EPS. Don't see a lot of growing, industry leaders w strong FCF profiles at that multiple. No banks cover it, that will change soon. CFO at 2 conferences this week.
catechwilliams on X
$DKNG Basically just said at the Craig Hallum Conference they are going to miss Q4 guidance. CEO: "literally had the worst stretch of the year, the last few weeks...sometimes that happens where you issue your guidance...So we'll see."
Investor Letters
All letters- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. August 2026 VHI $332M
- Forager Funds Management August 2026 BVSFF $929MIDPUF $568M
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.5B
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 TKOMY $6.4B
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. July 2026 DR0 $445MALM $3.3B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 079940 $390MVVVNF $1.6B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 NEO $898MVNP $1.9B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.3B
Sezzle: The Market Is Underestimating This High-Growth Fintech
Sezzle’s Q2 2026 revenue rose 51.7% and adjusted net income 58.4%, while revenue per GMV reached 11.7% as Premium subscriptions lifted…
Blake Winiecki 1 click
VersaBank: The Bank Behind the Bank – How a Canadian Branchless Pioneer Wants to Make Asset-Backed Securities Obsolete
VersaBank uses cash holdbacks and put-backs to buy point-of-sale loan cash flows, with C$7 billion in assets and AI-enabled real-time…
Updates
FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million…
(Public) Mach Natural Resources - A Buying Opportunity
Mach Natural Resources' Q2 distributable cash fell to $60.1 million as development spending rose, prompting a distribution cut; its units…
Ouster (NASDAQ: OUST) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage
Ouster began coverage at Accumulate as lidar revenue rose 56% in Q2, while annual cash burn near $80 million has driven an 86% share-count…
Research & Analysis: The Aaon Group (NASDAQ: AAON)
AAON's BASX data-center cooling business targets $1 million to $1.5 million per megawatt, with new capacity and backlog conversion expected…
Vista Energy: The Cash Engine Is On
Vista Energy's Q2 2026 production rose 32% and revenue 89% as Vaca Muerta acquisitions expand its Argentine export platform and cash…
Alan Galecki 6 clicks
Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update
Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for…
Birkenstock: Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation
Birkenstock targets 13–15% annual revenue growth through FY2028, driven by APAC expansion and closed-toe footwear, while trading at 13.44…
Roman Vitasek 4 clicks
SFIX · long Stitch Fix INC
Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.
Warrior Met Coal: A Volume Story Still Priced Like A Coal Price Bet
Warrior Met Coal’s Blue Creek ramp lifted Q2 sales to 3.7 million tons and cut unit costs to $92.53 per ton, shifting earnings growth…
Capital Connoisseur 1 click
A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t
ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…
Turning Point Brands: The Market Is Now Overly Concerned (Rating Upgrade)
Turning Point Brands reaffirmed 2026 guidance after a CEO change, while ALP and FRE expansion has compressed margins through marketing and…
Caffital Research 2 clicks
Research Roundup Vol. LIII
Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…
New Era Energy & Digital: 207 MW Deal Could Unlock 1.4 GW AI Giant
New Era Energy & Digital secured a 20-year Vistra power deal for 200 to 207 MW, reducing Phase 1 risk for its planned 1.4 GW West Texas AI…
Ryan Canady 1 click
$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital
Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant…
Analog Semiconductor Smorgasbord, Feat. TXN, ON, VSH
Texas Instruments, ON Semiconductor and Vishay are rated Accumulate on rising robotics demand for analog, power and discrete chips after a…
Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXVIII
Firefly Aerospace grew backlog to $1.5 billion, won two 2028 lunar missions and acquired Space-ng for autonomous navigation across its Blue…
Cellebrite (CLBT) Management Meeting: The Road Ahead
Cellebrite converts more than 110% of EBITDA into free cash flow and trades at 12.5 times free cash flow, with management targeting 15% or…
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