Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)
Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with under 1x leverage.
Monday, September 28, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$AVO calling out the fact that they have been overearning and margins reverting. “experienced normalization of our per unit avocado margins during in Q1.” Noted weak harvest anticipated in Mexcico. $CVGW will be even more adversely impacted by these factors.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.
catechwilliams on X
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
Voss Capital on X
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
Investor Letters
All letters- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. August 2026 VHI $332M
- Forager Funds Management August 2026 BVSFF $929MIDPUF $568M
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.5B
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 TKOMY $6.4B
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. July 2026 DR0 $445MALM $3.3B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 079940 $390MVVVNF $1.6B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 NEO $898MVNP $1.9B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.3B
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VersaBank: The Bank Behind the Bank – How a Canadian Branchless Pioneer Wants to Make Asset-Backed Securities Obsolete
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Updates
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TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)
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(Public) Mach Natural Resources - A Buying Opportunity
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Alan Galecki 6 clicks
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Birkenstock: Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation
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Roman Vitasek 4 clicks
SFIX · long Stitch Fix INC
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Warrior Met Coal: A Volume Story Still Priced Like A Coal Price Bet
Warrior Met Coal’s Blue Creek ramp lifted Q2 sales to 3.7 million tons and cut unit costs to $92.53 per ton, shifting earnings growth…
Capital Connoisseur 1 click
A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t
ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…
Turning Point Brands: The Market Is Now Overly Concerned (Rating Upgrade)
Turning Point Brands reaffirmed 2026 guidance after a CEO change, while ALP and FRE expansion has compressed margins through marketing and…
Caffital Research 2 clicks
Research Roundup Vol. LIII
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New Era Energy & Digital: 207 MW Deal Could Unlock 1.4 GW AI Giant
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Ryan Canady 1 click
$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital
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Analog Semiconductor Smorgasbord, Feat. TXN, ON, VSH
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Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXVIII
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Cellebrite (CLBT) Management Meeting: The Road Ahead
Cellebrite converts more than 110% of EBITDA into free cash flow and trades at 12.5 times free cash flow, with management targeting 15% or…
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