Copart 4Q26 Business Update: Thesis Shift?
Copart’s 4Q26 revenue grew 2.4% as U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5%, while a customer loss and higher yard costs pressured profits despite international growth.
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW USDA crackdown on Mexican avocado corruption significantly erroding import vols (region where $CVGW sources all product). S. America taking share at accelerating rate as customers (ie. $CMG, grocers) shift suppliers. $CVGW sales vol -13% MRQ. Current Q could be a disaster. https://t.co/KJgK8fXbM4
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 ALM $4BJXN $9B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $78B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6B
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 NXT $12B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 9301 $3.4B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.3B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.5B
- Forager Funds Management July 2026 4733 $4BSGE $12B
Adobe 3Q26 Update
Adobe’s fiscal 3Q26 revenue grew 13%, while ARR growth slowed to 9.3% excluding Semrush.
[scuttleslops] Amazon grocery, John Deere and AI, picks and pans in P&C Insurance, Copart earnings and the ACV acquisition
Amazon’s refrigerated same-day network has lifted monthly perishable customers roughly 50%, using grocery frequency to deepen loyalty and…
Cestrian Rating Actions - Week Ending 11 September 2026
Cestrian initiated Joby Aviation at Accumulate and upgraded Applied Materials and Broadcom to Accumulate for the week ended 11 September…
MKS Instruments: Penang Expansion Boosts WFE Outlook Despite Margin Pressure
MKS Instruments posted $1.25 billion in Q2 revenue and is expanding Penang capacity for a $200 billion to $250 billion wafer-fab-equipment…
The Straits Strategist 
Adobe 3Q26 Update: Nothing Broken, Nothing Explained
Adobe’s fiscal 3Q26 revenue grew 13%, while ARR growth was about 9.3% excluding Semrush.
Enel Chile S.A.: Cheap, Profitable, And Operating In Chile's Next Great Energy Revolution
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Ryan Canady 4 clicks
Alarm.com: False Alarm?
Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…
Oak Bloke Bonkers Conkers 13th September 2026
Oak Bloke’s 2026 picks have returned 37% in GBP, with AltynGold, Geiger Counter, Silvercorp and China-focused trusts still rated buys…
Nintendo: The Software Payoff Is Still Ahead
Nintendo expects software, digital sales and character licensing to drive growth, with FY2027 revenue forecast at ¥2.05 trillion and…
LL Insights 
Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis
Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…
GTLB · long Gitlab INC
Undercovered Dozen: Ares Capital, Grab, Lenovo, Rigetti And More
Undercovered Dozen profiles 12 lesser-covered stocks, including Ares Capital, Grab, Lenovo and Rigetti.
Why “Affordable Luxury” Doesn't Compound
Lululemon’s growth stalled as affordable-luxury apparel brands face fading post-Covid demand, cheap social-media influence and China…
The Five Deals That Made Apollo
Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)
TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage
Joby Aviation is initiated at Accumulate after booking $116m of trailing revenue, forming a Toyota manufacturing venture and agreeing to…
The Williams Companies: A Tough Competitor Tackles The Northeast
Williams Companies faces a revoked Northeast pipeline permit while pursuing growth through Momentum Midstream, Gulf export access and…
Long Player 
TransDigm is still in it for the money
TransDigm’s sole-source aerospace parts generate roughly 70% aftermarket margins, with 90% of revenue tied to owned IP and 80% from…
Gaming And Leisure Properties: Guilty By Association With VICI
Gaming and Leisure Properties raised AFFO guidance and dividends after Q2, trading at 10.2 times forward AFFO with an 80% payout ratio and…
This Company Multi-bags Every Time El Niño Hits. No One Is Talking About It.
Owens Corning's roofing business has historically posted sharp EBITDA and share-price gains during El Niño storm years, as severe weather…
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