TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)
TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com initiation.
TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com initiation.
$NX 5% of COGS/ direct input costs sourced from China. Tariffs + zero pricing power, high fixed cost structure + only 30% GMs = 25-30% hit to EBIT. Add 4x leverage, declining volumes, ambitious mgmt guidance while integrating a large acquisition is a setup for a trainwreck.
$AVO calling out the fact that they have been overearning and margins reverting. “experienced normalization of our per unit avocado margins during in Q1.” Noted weak harvest anticipated in Mexcico. $CVGW will be even more adversely impacted by these factors.
$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
Amplitude reported Q2 revenue of $100.9 million, up 21%, as agentic AI and LLM vendors challenge the moat of its product analytics software.
Kosmos Energy (KOS) is pitched as an oil stock poised to outperform if oil stays above $70-$80, supported by a claimed 2 billion-barrel…
DHT Holdings' low-leverage VLCC fleet has paid 66 consecutive dividends, with charter income covering forecast costs and spot earnings…
ContextLogic will acquire specialty-solvent maker gChem for $850 million, funded by a $650 million rights offering and $250 million of…
Tecnoglass could recover tariff- and FX-hit margins as U.S. blanket tariffs on Colombian goods lift.
National Vision Holdings' 2.2% same-store sales growth masked a 4.9% transaction decline, while inventory rose 37% and deferred marketing…
Titan Mining reported Q2 revenue of $25.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $9.6 million as zinc output rose, while advancing its Kilbourne…
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the…
Fastly's Q2 revenue rose 23%, while Security and Compute reached a $200 million run rate and drove record profitability.
EVC reported a solid second quarter and outlook.
PESI · long Perma-Fix Environmental Services (PESI) is presented as a long investment idea.
Farmland Partners trades at 70% of NAV, with farmland appreciation, commodity prices and crop insurance supporting earnings beyond AFFO.
Limbach's EBITDA fell 30% as organic revenue declined, but 1 Main Capital calls the weakness temporary and views CYMCOR as its first…
Six Flags’ attendance rose 4% while comparable crowd intensity was nearly flat, and both it and United Parks grew deferred revenue about 2%…
Waystar sells revenue-cycle software for a US claims process where roughly 18% of submitted claims are initially denied and healthcare…
Genius Sports guided for $1.005–$1.025 billion of revenue and $285–$295 million of adjusted EBITDA despite higher leverage from the Legend…
Ultragenyx targets $730-760 million of 2026 revenue after GENGLYCOS approval, with UX111’s FDA decision and GTX-102 Phase 3 data due in…
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Miami International Holdings, the No. 4 options exchange with 17% share, trades at 12x forward EBITDA despite 35% revenue growth, 54%…
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