When Anyone Can Make a Movie, Netflix Still Wins
Netflix’s roughly $20 billion content budget can become an editorial advantage as generative AI cuts production costs and floods viewers with synthetic content.
Saturday, September 5, 2026
From X
David Orr on X
$GS should have ponied up the money. https://t.co/isJsSGuEzB
David Orr on X
Great companies are built by doing things differently, taking risks. $IBKR https://t.co/3sLFcI0ImD
Chris Camillo on X
@UncleAlpha007 FCL is a pretty useless valuation metric for a company deliberately reinvesting to fund explosive growth. And there’s a massive spread of outcomes on what $BE revenue even looks like in 2030.
SG on X
At one time my largest position was short $KOLD calls. Considering rebuilding this position. KOLD is the 2x natgas bear ETF. https://t.co/gEVYK0445e
Trevor Scott on X
@kashyap286 $GOOS?
SG on X
@rossiadam never thought of $TSLA FSD from the perspective of the elderly. Probably a great solution as FSD gets better but this has to be the worst demographic in terms of reaction time to grab the wheel if something goes wrong.
John_Hempton on X
@marketreformer @MetaGuyMarduk @busybrands I don't and never did have a position in $MMTLP.
Investor Letters
All letters- Crossroads Capital, LLC Q3 2026
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 DR0 $503MALM $5.1B
- Alpinum Investment Management AG Q3 2026
- Macro Ops Q3 2026
- Myrmikan Capital, LLC Q3 2026
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $82BMA $509B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $227B
- Fred Alger Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMZN $2.8TGOOGL $4.2T
The Fed Is Going to Lose the Bond Market and I Found the Asset That Gets Paid When It Does
Rayonier’s 4.0 million acres are valued at $393 an acre after other assets, versus $1,200 to $1,800 cutover-land sales, framing the timber…
Spare a Thought for Broadcom Shareholders
Broadcom’s FY2028 revenue estimate rose from $162 billion to about $270 billion and EPS from $17.60 to $30, while the stock remained flat…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Costco’s $4.99 chicken supply chain, Celsius’s 20% energy-drink share, and California utilities’ wildfire…
Broadcom: The AI Tollbooth Is Becoming An Earnings Machine
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue rose 221% year over year as custom silicon programs and VMware software cash flows fund further…
Simple Investment Ideas 4 clicks
[scuttleslops] VEEV, CRM, WDAY, SNPS, NVDA
Veeva targets CRM share gains from Salesforce migration delays while Falcon agentic labor expands its reach into life-sciences safety,…
Perpetual Futures and CME: What the Early Data Shows
CME perpetual-futures activity is tested against more than 240,000 CFTC data points on open interest and dealer positioning.
Selling Where They Ain’t
Dollar General’s Q2 FY26 comparable sales rose 3.5%, beating Walmart U.S.
Netflix: A Second Monetization Cycle Is Just Getting Started
Netflix targets $51–51.4 billion of 2026 revenue, $3 billion of advertising revenue and $12.5 billion of free cash flow as its second…
The Curious Analyst 3 clicks
A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the…
Chevron Stock Is A Bargain Amid Venezuela Deal
Chevron committed $7 billion to expand Venezuelan output as record U.S. production and elevated oil prices lifted Q2 earnings.
Bay Area Ideas 3 clicks
Under The Hood - Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.
Sprouts Farmers Market’s 483-store fresh-food format combines dedicated distribution, curated assortments and long-built site selection,…
$50M Cash, No Debt, 0.74x Book: A Deep-Value Machine Tool Setup
A debt-free machine tool company with $50 million in cash trades at 0.74 times book value and below net current asset value.
MercadoLibre: Valuation Model
MercadoLibre’s sum-of-the-parts model values commerce and payments on FCFF, credit on equity returns, producing a $1,980 base-case target…
Meta On the Offense!
Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 targets agentic enterprise work, backed by employee workflow data and 3,000 engineers building reinforcement-learning…
U-Haul Bought at the Top
U-Haul’s pandemic-era fleet purchases at inflated prices now drive higher depreciation and disposal losses as truck and van prices…
[scuttlebits] CPRT, ADBE, FIG, NVDA, QCOM, FDS, Memory chips
Copart’s returning CEO Jay Adair plans to restart European expansion and build domestic whole-car sales on its global buyer network amid…
Corporate dark arts: the strangest 8-K I've ever seen $DMRC
DMRC’s incoming CEO can earn more than $40 million if shares rise roughly fivefold, despite an 8-K warning of substantial doubt about the…
Double Down Interactive (DDI): Update
DoubleU’s $11.25-per-share bid for DoubleDown Interactive values its operating business at 0.25-0.7x EBITDA; minority holders can block it…
Deep Dive: Palantir ($PLTR)
Palantir’s forward-deployed engineering model underpins its AI software growth, but AWS, Microsoft and AI labs are copying it at scale as…
Hated Moats Brief: SAP in 10 Minutes
SAP’s deeply embedded ERP systems support its cloud transition, but slowing backlog growth and AI disruption fears drove a 33% YTD share…
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