A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the category has reached a cyclical bottom.
Friday, September 4, 2026
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From X
catechwilliams on X
$CRCT Covid fad DIY crafting printers—accelerating unit sales decline, cutting prices. High margin subscription rev (online templates library free elsewhere) now churning off. Set for Q2 miss/ guide down on 8/5. 18-20x P/E. Massive CEO selling. https://t.co/V86UTJv2Np
catechwilliams on X
Sponsor Bain (50% shareholder) will likely be looking to unload shares as we approach the lock-up expiration date later this summer. $KMTS could be a zero.
catechwilliams on X
$KMTS Recent IPO. Makes $20k bras w defib (not a joke). Impractical product w very low efficacy (per clinical trials). Insurance won’t cover. Burning cash, no valuation support. Zoll has 80% share, $KMTS distant #2. 6/1 FDA approved a much better alternative by Element Sciences.
catechwilliams on X
$PRIM $500M new project broke ground. Not deep on the name but this is a pretty massive program for $PRIM and does not appear anyone noticed. "430-megawatt development from Arevon Energy, an offshoot of utility and energy contractor Primoris Services Corp" https://t.co/1egNflZ1X8
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating decline: Networking -37% (largest category), Product sales -18%, zero margin/ low quality Professional services now 15% of sales. Cut FY2026 top and bottom-line guide by 7% w further cuts almost certain to come. Trading at 14x 2026 guidance vs peers at 6-8x.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just won the massive jumbotron project for the new Titans stadium. Estimated to be $180M. Will be the largest set of displays in the NFL. Bills, Browns stadiums to be announced soon. Wouldn’t be surprised if Mitsubishi acquires them given interest in the category.
Little Owl Research on X
With contract disputes and litigation set to surge, I believe Burford is well positioned to benefit. Struggling firms will increasingly look to shore up capital—Many cannot afford to wait 2+ years to see the case through. $BUR
Little Owl Research on X
Burford’s value prop is high to these firms, and the significant supply spike puts them in a fantastic position to capitalize on the demand for cash. Additionally settlement with Argentine government seems highly likely at this point. Long $BUR
Investor Letters
All letters
Six Flags And United Parks: Two Different Answers To The Same Demand Problem
Six Flags’ attendance rose 4% while comparable crowd intensity was nearly flat, and both it and United Parks grew deferred revenue about 2%…
Sanjay Swamy 1 click
[WAY – Waystar] Healthcare is a very complicated invoice
Waystar sells revenue-cycle software for a US claims process where roughly 18% of submitted claims are initially denied and healthcare…
Ultragenyx ($RARE): A Catalyst-Driven Thesis With Asymmetric Upside
Ultragenyx targets $730-760 million of 2026 revenue after GENGLYCOS approval, with UX111’s FDA decision and GTX-102 Phase 3 data due in…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Miami International Holdings (MIAX)
Miami International Holdings, the No. 4 options exchange with 17% share, trades at 12x forward EBITDA despite 35% revenue growth, 54%…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
TPC 2026-08-27 Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger
Tutor Perini’s Q2 revenue rose 19% to $1.64 billion as higher-margin megaprojects lifted construction income 54%, prompting higher 2026 EPS…
The Curious Analyst 
Quick Value #328 - Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)
Cal-Maine, the largest U.S. egg producer, trades at 1.6x book versus a 2.1x 20-year median, with net cash and investments equal to 23% of…
STNE 2026-08-25 StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
StoneCo's buybacks and special dividend produced roughly 39% H1 shareholder yield as Brazil's rate cuts slow and competition persists.
IWA Research 3 clicks
CDNL · short Cardinal Infrastru Group INC
Cardinal Infrastructure Group faces an IPO lockup expiration amid stretched valuation and reported metrics, with an Up-C structure…
US-Canada Tariffs: Finding Investment Opportunities
US-Canada tariffs impose 50% duties on $20 billion of Canadian goods, lifting US steel makers while pressuring Canadian exporters and…
NRIX 2026-08-24 Nurix Therapeutics: Roche Has Changed The Economics Of The Bull Case
Nurix Therapeutics gained $700 million upfront from Roche, a 50% U.S. profit share and Roche-funded global bexobrutideg development,…
Equity Eagle 3 clicks
Planet Fitness: The $10 Gym That Grew Into a Franchise Machine
Planet Fitness runs 2,930 clubs and 21.5 million memberships through an asset-light franchise model funded by $15 monthly dues, royalties…
SEZL 2026-08-23 Sezzle: The Numbers Don't Support The Selloff
Sezzle fell 20% after Q2 despite a revenue and EPS beat and higher guidance, as marketing spending and seasonality drove a sequential…
Daniel James 3 clicks
WD #355: AUNA/CAAP Earnings, Brazil, USMCA Trade Situation
CAAP reported decent second-quarter earnings and its first dividend, while Brazil rose on an election poll and USMCA trade developments…
Guest Post: Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON)
Eton Pharmaceuticals licensed rare-disease medicines, raised revenue guidance twice and climbed more than fourfold from its February 2026…
OPLN 2026-08-22 Private Equity Exit Offers Opportunity At Openlane
OPENLANE trades near $34 after Apax Partners’ exit, with a $25 million buyback and FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $385–$400…
Mike Arnold 1 click
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
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