Friday, September 4, 2026

A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?

Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the category has reached a cyclical bottom.

SMPL $848MBRBR $1B

The Value Road Sep 2 12 clicks

Sep 1 EVC $727M

EVC Update

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 15 clicks

Sep 1 LMB $623M

$LMB: Limbach missed the data center boom. Is that the opportunity? | 1 Main Capital

Yet Another Value Podcast 9 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats Jul 9

Broken Moats on X

$WDFC results are staggering when you read through them....then you get to the guidance and it does not reflect the monstrous quarter they just posted (relatively the same as the guide from Q1)....something is off with this company, they are either one of the worst non micro cap companies at forecasting their business (not a great endorsement of management and their processes). AND/OR they are playing games with inventory to influence the stock. I will reserve my own comments for private, but if you look back in recent years there are some odd swings in Asian /Chinese inventories in given quarters. Fascinated how a product that has been around forever with wide distribution posts a +30% print in Americas, 24% company wide. And the guide moves from 5-9% to 6-9% growth for the year?? What is going on?

@RagingVentures Jul 9

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Excited to see Elroy Air going public via SPAC with $CMII / $IPXG… Elroy has developed a hybrid-electric, autonomous VTOL aircraft called Chaparral that has both military and defense applications. We have invested in multiple rounds at Elroy, starting with their seed in 2018. Here’s the deck on Elroy: https://t.co/iRRILU5JFk https://t.co/dUaH1EKf4K

@RagingVentures Jul 9

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Kalshi looking at rolling out perpetual futures…. Perps are super interesting, à la Hyperliquid / $PURR, and have the potential to be very disruptive across the capital markets ecosystem https://t.co/L0JHZdJu4O

@david_katunaric Jul 9

Mikro Kap David on X

$NRP reminded me why they call us Europoors... Remind me when this wonderful asset becomes a C-corp. https://t.co/8odW8oDuwA https://t.co/9FBlAHmFoA

@natstewart5 Jul 7 1 click

Nat Stewart on X

@GardinerIsland $BSM has kinda muffled volatility relatively speaking if you don't mind a K-1, have a pretty good plan to grow production on their land next ~5 yrs (they own royalty interests), systematically hedge ~75% of production.

@Mike10947310 Jul 7

Mike on X

If you’ve been following the $PESI situation, this is important reading. Especially regarding grouting 200E waste. https://t.co/bsf03iTPKg

@natstewart5 Jul 4 1 click

Nat Stewart on X

@orrdavid I don't own $WEN but I do see a powerful upside potential. Perhaps I am biased as it has been my favorite burger fast food restaurant for 35+ years (the only one my parents let us go to when I was a kid😂).

@marginofdanger Jul 4 2 clicks

marginofdanger on X

Is anyone looking at these busted digital treasury companies? A quick glance suggests a bunch of them are trading at 50%+ discounts to NAV with otherwise clean balance sheets. Will they all merge in stock for stock deals? Or convert into ETFs? $BRR $XXI $BMNR

Investor Letters

All letters

Six Flags And United Parks: Two Different Answers To The Same Demand Problem

Six Flags’ attendance rose 4% while comparable crowd intensity was nearly flat, and both it and United Parks grew deferred revenue about 2%…

FUN $1.2BPRKS $1.6B

Sanjay Swamy Sep 1 1 click

[WAY – Waystar] Healthcare is a very complicated invoice

Waystar sells revenue-cycle software for a US claims process where roughly 18% of submitted claims are initially denied and healthcare…

WAY $4.9B

scuttleblurb Aug 31 5 clicks

Ultragenyx ($RARE): A Catalyst-Driven Thesis With Asymmetric Upside

Ultragenyx targets $730-760 million of 2026 revenue after GENGLYCOS approval, with UX111’s FDA decision and GTX-102 Phase 3 data due in…

RARE $1.4B

Hated Moats Aug 30

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…

UWMC $2BCCOI $476M

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 27 13 clicks

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $536M

The Oak Bloke Aug 27 6 clicks

Miami International Holdings (MIAX)

Miami International Holdings, the No. 4 options exchange with 17% share, trades at 12x forward EBITDA despite 35% revenue growth, 54%…

MIAX $3.8B

Sylence Capital Aug 27 1 click

Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade

Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.

PRGS $1.9B

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 27 3 clicks

TPC 2026-08-27

Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger

Tutor Perini’s Q2 revenue rose 19% to $1.64 billion as higher-margin megaprojects lifted construction income 54%, prompting higher 2026 EPS…

TPC $4.5B

The Curious Analyst Aug 27

Quick Value #328 - Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

Cal-Maine, the largest U.S. egg producer, trades at 1.6x book versus a 2.1x 20-year median, with net cash and investments equal to 23% of…

CALM $3.4B

Value Don't Lie Aug 25

STNE 2026-08-25

StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now

StoneCo's buybacks and special dividend produced roughly 39% H1 shareholder yield as Brazil's rate cuts slow and competition persists.

STNE $2.3B

IWA Research Aug 25 3 clicks

CDNL · short

Cardinal Infrastru Group INC

Cardinal Infrastructure Group faces an IPO lockup expiration amid stretched valuation and reported metrics, with an Up-C structure…

CDNL $1.4B

Value Investors Club Jun 5

US-Canada Tariffs: Finding Investment Opportunities

US-Canada tariffs impose 50% duties on $20 billion of Canadian goods, lifting US steel makers while pressuring Canadian exporters and…

ASTL $451M

Aurelion Research Aug 24

NRIX 2026-08-24

Nurix Therapeutics: Roche Has Changed The Economics Of The Bull Case

Nurix Therapeutics gained $700 million upfront from Roche, a 50% U.S. profit share and Roche-funded global bexobrutideg development,…

NRIX $2.7B

Equity Eagle Aug 24 3 clicks

Planet Fitness: The $10 Gym That Grew Into a Franchise Machine

Planet Fitness runs 2,930 clubs and 21.5 million memberships through an asset-light franchise model funded by $15 monthly dues, royalties…

PLNT $3.2B

Open Insights Aug 23

SEZL 2026-08-23

Sezzle: The Numbers Don't Support The Selloff

Sezzle fell 20% after Q2 despite a revenue and EPS beat and higher guidance, as marketing spending and seasonality drove a sequential…

SEZL $3.9B

Daniel James Aug 23 3 clicks

WD #355: AUNA/CAAP Earnings, Brazil, USMCA Trade Situation

CAAP reported decent second-quarter earnings and its first dividend, while Brazil rose on an election poll and USMCA trade developments…

AUNA $383M

Ian’s Insider Corner Aug 22

Guest Post: Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON)

Eton Pharmaceuticals licensed rare-disease medicines, raised revenue guidance twice and climbed more than fourfold from its February 2026…

ETON $1.6B

Rebound Capital Aug 22

OPLN 2026-08-22

Private Equity Exit Offers Opportunity At Openlane

OPENLANE trades near $34 after Apax Partners’ exit, with a $25 million buyback and FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $385–$400…

OPLN $4.2B

Mike Arnold Aug 22 1 click

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…

ELALF $3.2B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 20 12 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $3.9B

scuttleblurb Aug 20 17 clicks

Friday, September 4, 2026

Broken Moats on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Mikro Kap David on X

Nat Stewart on X

Mike on X

Nat Stewart on X

marginofdanger on X

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