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Thursday, September 3, 2026

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@ToffCap 1 click

ToffCap on X

Every now and then I read write-ups where I agree on the thesis but think it would be insane to act on it. Like $ASTS 's recent short pitch on VIC. Sure execution is important, but 90% of the 'valuation' here is storytelling. So what if they'll miss a quarter or two. Look at the projections. The base for valuation here is not fundamentals, it's faith. Missing a few quarters is not going to break the thesis at all. That won't be enough to break believers' faith. Because that's what is needed to break such stories. Faith needs to be crushed. And that can take a long ass time. And what if in the meantime they'll beat a quarter?
@ToffCap 2 clicks

ToffCap on X

Whenever there's a very strong move on earnings, I always check it out and almost always add / buy. From experience I know that the market generally doesn't price strong news properly. At best, most often the share price will only reflect the earnings dynamics, but not any multiple rerating. And in case of VERY strong earnings (such as $EVC) the market will not even price those properly, leaving plenty to go for the price on both earnings and multiple rerating. People in it for a trade will sell down on the massive move. Those that made a bundle might also, as the position becomes too large. And others who missed it are biased in buying something that already ran so much. This often leads to a few days of 'pressure', and a good moment to add. And then the market does its work.

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EVC Update

EVC reported a solid second quarter and outlook.

EVC $772M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 25 clicks
ENS · short

Enersys

EnerSys faces a short thesis as data-center and warehouse vehicle customers shift from lead-acid batteries to lithium-ion.

ENS $6.5B
Value Investors Club

Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive

Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…

MSFT $3.6T
Bearhold Research 18 clicks
BE 2026-08-29

Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break

Bloom Energy’s 80x forward earnings valuation relies on concentrated megaprojects, sustained AI data-center power demand and continued…

BE $74B
Valuation Rewind 6 clicks

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