Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and cash-flow breakeven in Q4 2026.
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $164M082920 $946M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $91MSTOR-B $1.7B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 ADMA $2.1BKD $2.7B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 AORT $1.2BCENX $3.9B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 CNX $4.9BFBIN $4.8B
- Horizon Kinetics 2nd Quarter 2026 INFL MIAX $3.8B
- Ariel Investments Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 CLB $502MHAE $4.9B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q2 2026 CALY $2.6BHCC $4.6B
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…
Entravision Q2 Notes
Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…
$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost
UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.
40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)
Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…
These Power Stocks (Not Semis) Are The Real AI Beneficiaries, Say Investing Brother Duo Up 1,300%
Pernas Research names Capstone Energy and Stabilis Solutions as AI data-center power beneficiaries, alongside Tenable, Upwork, Wise and…
My Pitch Deck Slide Show from the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference
Butler National Corporation is the subject of a stock pitch presented at the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference.
DEC-laration of independence
Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…
Perimeter Solutions: 2Q26 Business Recap
Perimeter Solutions’ 2Q26 revenue rose 31%, while operating income fell 11% as USDA pricing and DLA delivery timing hurt Fire Safety; it…
A Venezuela Lottery Ticket for 41 Cents
Lionheart Holdings’ 41-cent CUBWW warrants hinge on a SPAC merger valuing KEO Energy’s Venezuelan PetroUrdaneta stake at $1 billion, versus…
COUR · long Coursera INC
Coursera's combination with Udemy creates an online learning platform serving over 270 million learners with hundreds of thousands of…
Vistance Networks (NASDAQ: VISN)
Vistance Networks plans a large post-Ruckus-sale dividend, leaving Aurora Networks valued below 4x guided EBITDA after $1.88 billion of…
Cematrix Corp ($CEMX.TO) FINS Review
Cematrix posted record Q2 revenue of $18.7 million, up 76%, and $3.5 million of net income, while backlog fell 9% from year-end.
[OTCM] Listings for the rest of us
OTC Markets gives smaller, distressed, and lightly disclosed companies a trading venue outside NYSE and Nasdaq, with lower listing barriers…
This Stock Just Got Cheaper on Better Numbers
A debt-free American manufacturer now trades at roughly 7x annualized Q2 EBITDA, with $7.35 per share in net cash and a tender floor 18.5%…
Entravision: Another Whale Has Emerged
Entravision’s Q1 filings contain a new footnote disclosure pointing to a potential second large advertiser beyond its Hong Kong customer,…
Seer
Seer trades at $2.04 against $3.90 per share of net cash as activists press a board that rejected five buyout proposals and won reelection.
Biorem Inc. ($BRM.V) FINS Review
Biorem reported 66% revenue growth and over 260% profit growth after trading at 11.3 times earnings and 5.9 times EV/EBITDA.
Hidden in Plane Sight
An aerospace company’s profitable core is obscured by a long-running FAA development program; approval, abandonment, or shrinking losses…
AirIQ Inc. ($IQ.V) FINS Review
AirIQ’s 2025 revenue rose 17% to $6.5 million, but tax reassessments cut net income 50% and lifted its P/E to 144x.
Publications we follow
Every publication on this site, hand-picked.
Newsletters 91
- 310 Value’s Newsletter
- Absurdly Cheap Stocks
- Altay Capital - Mostly Value Investing
- AmsterdamStocks
- Aurelion Research
- Base Hit Investing
- Bearhold Research
- Bearstone
- Behind the Balance Sheet
- Best Anchor Stocks
- Bilbel's Substack
- Bison Insights
- Brevarthan Research
- Bristlemoon Capital
- Byron Street Research
- Calvin Blissett
- Cannibal Stocks
- Capital Employed
- Capitalist Letters
- Cassandra Unchained
- Citrini Research
- Cluseau Research
- D Invests
- Daniel Romero
- Deep Value Insights
- Doomberg
- Eagle Point Capital
- Easy Value
- Exploring with Alluvial Capital
- Fabricated Knowledge
- First Strike Research
- Flyover Stocks
- Global Outperformers
- Guardian Research
- Hated Moats
- Healthy Stock Picks
- HFI Research
- Hidden Gems Investing
- Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter
- Ian’s Insider Corner
- Iggy on Investing Newsletter
- Inglenook Growth
- Invariant
- Investing 501
- Irrational Analysis
- John Hempton's Newsletter
- Kairos Research
- Kakashii's Materials
- Key Context by Tae Kim
- Latticework by MOI Global
- Lewistown Capital
- Maius Partners
- MBI Deep Dives
- Mispriced Assets
- Modern Value Investing
- Monte Independent Investment Research
- Multibagger Monitor
- Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
- Net Interest
- Nongaap Investing
- Nugget Capital Partner's Substack
- Obscure Stocks
- Open Insights
- PETITION
- Phynvesting
- Raging Bull Investments
- Rebound Capital
- Rod’s Ruminations
- ROE The Boat
- scuttleblurb
- Sector Stories
- Singularity Research
- SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets
- Sleep Well Investments
- smallvalue.
- Speedwell Memos
- Stock Thoughts
- Substack von Philipp
- Sunday's Idea Brunch
- Sylence Capital
- The Curious Compounder
- The Mikro Kap
- The Oak Bloke
- The Value Road
- Treasure Hunting
- Triple S Special Situations Investing
- TSOH Investment Research
- Underlying Value
- Value Don't Lie
- XIX Value
- Yet Another Value Blog
Blogs 12
Seeking Alpha 30 of 165
Andres Veurink
Bay Area Ideas
Capital Connoisseur
Dhierin Bechai
Equity Eagle
Eudaemon Research
Henrik Alex
High Alpha Professor
Investor Overview
IWA Research
Jaden Mealy
LL Insights
Marc Gerstein
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT
Miletus Research
Myriam Alvarez
Petri Dish Reports
Philip Wang
Prakhar Agarwal, CFA
PV Research
Robert J. Lake
Sam Mancini
Sharon McArd
SiliconBytes Insights
Simple Investment Ideas
Steven Fiorillo
The Bullionaire
The Curious Analyst
The Undercovered Dozen
Value Capital Research
X accounts we follow
Every account on this site, hand-picked.
⚽️📡
💥PETITION💥
A Capital
AltayCap
Bank Reg Blog
Barbarian Capital
BDC
Bill Ackman
Broken Moats
BuccoCapital Bloke
catechwilliams
Charles Frischer
Chris Camillo
Clark Square Capital
Cluseau Investments
Colin King
Connor Haley
Conor Maguire | Value Situations
Convequity
David Orr
Deep Sail Capital
Devin LaSarre
DOMO Capital Management, LLC
Edwin Dorsey
Evan Tindell
Farmer
Fierce_beast
Fred Liu
Gavin Baker
Ian Bezek
Idea Brunch
JabroniCoin.USD
John_Hempton
junkbondinvestor
kab60
KEDM.com
Laughing Water Capital
Lee Roach
Little Owl Research
Maius
Maj Soueidan
marginofdanger
mavix
Mike
Mikro Kap David
Multiples Capital
Myles
Nat Stewart
Negligible Capital
Odd Diligence
Odd Lot Arbitrageur
PAA Research
Pernas Research
Porter Collins
Prepared Remarks
Psyop Capital
Raging Capital Ventures
Red Dog Capital
RiverRoadPartners
Rusholme Capital
Sahil Khetpal
SG
Tim Eriksen
Timyan Bank Alert
Todd Wenning
ToffCap
Trevor Scott
Voss Capital
Yaron Naymark
Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
- Aikya Investment Management
- Akre Capital Management, LLC
- Alluvial Capital Management
- Alpinum Investment Management AG
- Ariel Investments
- Artisan Partners
- Askeladden Capital
- Asset Value Investors Ltd
- Baron Funds
- Berkshire Hathaway
- Biglari Holdings
- Bireme Capital
- Bristlemoon Capital
- Broyhill Asset Management
- Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management
- Cedar Creek Partners
- Choice Equities
- Confluence Investment Management
- CrossingBridge Advisors
- Crossroads Capital, LLC
- Distillate Capital
- Dodge & Cox Stock Fund
- Donville Kent Asset Management Inc.
- FPA Crescent Fund
- First Eagle Investments
- Forager Funds Management
- Fred Alger Management, LLC
- Giverny Capital
- Grandeur Peak Global Advisors
- Greenhaven Road Capital
- GreensKeeper Asset Management
- Grey Owl Capital Management
- Halvio Capital
- Hayden Capital
- Heartland Advisors
- Hoisington Investment Management
- Horizon Kinetics
- Intrepid Capital
- Invenomic Capital Management
- Janus Henderson Investors
- Kaydan Wealth Management
- Kernow Asset Management
- LVS Advisory
- Laughing Water Capital
- Lindsell Train Limited
- Macro Ops
- Maran Capital Management
- Markel Group
- Massif Capital
- McIntyre Partnerships
- Merion Road Capital
- Myrmikan Capital, LLC
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory
- Oakmark Funds
- Palm Harbour Capital
- Palm Valley Capital
- Patient Capital Management
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V.
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd.
- Pershing Square Holdings
- Polaris Capital Management
- Polen Capital 5Perspectives Growth Opportunities
- Polen Capital U.S. Opportunistic High Yield
- Praetorian Capital
- Protean Funds
- RGA Investment Advisors
- Rowan Street Capital
- Royce Investment Partners
- Sequoia Fund
- Southeastern Asset Management
- Third Avenue Management
- Tweedy, Browne
- Upslope Capital Management
- Vulcan Value Partners
- Wedgewood Partners
- Weitz Investment Management
- White Falcon Capital Management
Sectors
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
