[scuttleslops] VEEV, CRM, WDAY, SNPS, NVDA
Veeva targets CRM share gains from Salesforce migration delays while Falcon agentic labor expands its reach into life-sciences safety, clinical and regulatory work.
Thursday, September 3, 2026
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catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Mexico tariffs likely a negotiating tactic but if enacted would be catastrophic for $CVGW which sources >90% of its avocados from MX. A 25% premium would render MX avocados uncompetitive, drive sourcing of the commodity to South American producers. $CVGW has 0 SA presence.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW. Another red flag. CFO departing after just 2 years w CEO's old buddy as replacement. Massively over-earnings w volumes continuing to decline from lost customers and margins reverting lower.
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.4BSUSRF $272M
- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $152M082920 $925M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $98MEVGGF $17B
- Royce Investment Partners year-to-date period ended 6/30/26 BLBD $2BMMS $3B
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5.2BDGXX $375M
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.7TGOOGL $4T
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4T
ENS · short Enersys
EnerSys faces a short thesis as data-center and warehouse vehicle customers shift from lead-acid batteries to lithium-ion.
CDNL · short Cardinal Infrastru Group INC
Cardinal Infrastructure Group faces an IPO lockup expiration amid stretched valuation and reported metrics, with an Up-C structure…
A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the…
Chevron Stock Is A Bargain Amid Venezuela Deal
Chevron committed $7 billion to expand Venezuelan output as record U.S. production and elevated oil prices lifted Q2 earnings.
Bay Area Ideas 6 clicks
Notes from a Dasher Shift, and the Drone Delivery Future
DoorDash’s delivery economics rely on customer tips and flexible labor, while rising courier costs make autonomous delivery central to…
IREN's Customers Are Starting To Fund The Build
IREN’s AI contracts now include customer prepayments covering 45% to 55% of GPU CapEx, while three-year pricing has risen 125% since…
Quantryon Capital 10 clicks
Sangamo Bankruptcy (SGMOQ)
Sangamo Therapeutics’ Chapter 11 asset sales leave common equity tied to $100 million in PTC Fabry therapy approval milestones and a…
Amazon $AMZN: The Company That Became Impossible to Ignore — and Finally Possible to Model
Amazon reported $200.6 billion in quarterly revenue and $27.5 billion in operating income as AWS grew 36.7% and advertising 26%, making its…
An ATM that starts to spit out cash
Andrada Mining’s Uis ore sorter targets higher tin grades and lower unit costs after FY26 operating cash flow reached £4.7 million, but…
Tectonic Therapeutic: Competitor Data Strengthens The TX45 Bull Case
Tectonic Therapeutic's TX45 CpcPH-HFpEF program gains support from Merck's CADENCE data; Phase 1b hemodynamics and cash through Q1 2029 set…
Equity Eagle 4 clicks
QTWO · long Q2 Holdings INC (qtwo)
Q2 Holdings sells banking software to more than 1,200 financial institutions and 27.8 million registered users, after selling off with…
OKLO · short Oklo INC
Oklo is framed as a portfolio basket short and a concept company that could become a compounding short.
LULU · long Lululemon Athletica INC
Lululemon Athletica, a high-end women’s sportswear retailer, is presented as a long investment.
EVC Update
EVC reported a solid second quarter and outlook.
$LMB: Limbach missed the data center boom. Is that the opportunity? | 1 Main Capital
Limbach's EBITDA fell 30% as organic revenue declined, but 1 Main Capital calls the weakness temporary and views CYMCOR as its first…
MDA Space: Houston, We Have a New Position
MDA Space is added to the Aurelion Index after hiring engineers, signing large contracts and expanding facilities; the thesis cites…
The Bid Shading Threat to Amazon Advertising
Amazon’s $69 billion advertising business faces an FTC lawsuit over alleged bid shading, threatening a revenue stream that grew roughly…
GoPro sold itself at 9:20 AM to get ahead of a meme stock
GoPro rushed out its Starman Optical merger after Markiplier-driven buying sent GPRO up roughly 90% premarket, offering shareholders $1.14…
[WAY – Waystar] Healthcare is a very complicated invoice
Waystar sells revenue-cycle software for a US claims process where roughly 18% of submitted claims are initially denied and healthcare…
Here's Why You Should Buy Genius Sports Despite Rising Leverage
Genius Sports guided for $1.005–$1.025 billion of revenue and $285–$295 million of adjusted EBITDA despite higher leverage from the Legend…
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catechwilliams
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