EVC Update
EVC reported a solid second quarter and outlook.
Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Mexico tariffs likely a negotiating tactic but if enacted would be catastrophic for $CVGW which sources >90% of its avocados from MX. A 25% premium would render MX avocados uncompetitive, drive sourcing of the commodity to South American producers. $CVGW has 0 SA presence.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW. Another red flag. CFO departing after just 2 years w CEO's old buddy as replacement. Massively over-earnings w volumes continuing to decline from lost customers and margins reverting lower.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $141M082920 $947M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $104MEVGGF $17B
- Royce Investment Partners year-to-date period ended 6/30/26 AAP $2.7BAGO $3.2B
- Protean Funds June 2026 CINT $224MIDDWF $9.4B
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $4.9BDGXX $406M
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.7TGOOGL $4T
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $84BHDIH
GoPro sold itself at 9:20 AM to get ahead of a meme stock
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Cleveland-Cliffs: 2027 Could Be A Very Big Year
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The Bullionaire 2 clicks
KRYS · short Krystal Biotech INC
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LWAY · long Lifeway Foods INC
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YOU · short Clear Secure INC
Clear Secure's Clear Plus subscription business is nearing maturity despite recent bookings strength, supporting a short thesis on YOU.
[WAY – Waystar] Healthcare is a very complicated invoice
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Here's Why You Should Buy Genius Sports Despite Rising Leverage
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Mayank Marwah 5 clicks
Veeva 2Q’26: “SaaSpocalypse” Cancelled
Veeva beat its $905 million revenue guide with $928 million, up 17.6%, while subscription growth accelerated and GAAP EBIT margin reached…
Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive
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BE 2026-08-29 Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break
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Valuation Rewind 6 clicks
GRLRF · long Greenland Resources INC
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Aurora Innovation: Built To Win With Less Than 1% Of The Market
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Andras Tory 1 click
COCO · short Vita Coco Company INC
Vita Coco, COCO, is pitched short after a 45% monthly rally, arguing investors are overextrapolating coconut water category growth.
SIRI · long Sirius Xm Holdings INC
SiriusXM, SIRI, combines a 32% EBITDA margin with 3.6x net leverage and a 16% free-cash-flow margin despite elevated capex.
FTRE 2026-08-30 Fortrea Holdings: The Turnaround Is Showing Up In Earnings Before Revenue
Fortrea’s adjusted EBITDA rose 24% in H1 as cost cuts outpaced a 3.4% revenue decline, while new business awards increased 19%.
Manimala Misra 5 clicks
Meta Buys Away its Distraction at Minimal Cost
Meta’s $18 billion teen-addiction settlement makes $5.3 billion contingent on YouTube and TikTok adopting matching restrictions, while…
MU 2026-08-28 SK Hynix: Higher Revenue Than Micron, Cheaper Than Micron (Initiating Buy)
SK Hynix posted record quarterly revenue of 79.32 trillion won and a 76% operating margin, while trading below Micron on forward sales and…
Prakhar Agarwal, CFA 6 clicks
Making sense of Sandisk’s long-term financial model
Sandisk’s FY28-FY30 model relies on long-term NAND agreements holding near-80% gross-margin floors despite pricing 26-28% below current…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Publications we follow
Every publication on this site, hand-picked.
Newsletters 53
- 310 Value’s Newsletter
- Altay Capital - Mostly Value Investing
- Aurelion Research
- Base Hit Investing
- Bearhold Research
- Bristlemoon Capital
- Byron Street Research
- Capital Employed
- Capitalist Letters
- Citrini Research
- Cluseau Research
- Deep Value Insights
- Exploring with Alluvial Capital
- First Strike Research
- Guardian Research
- Hated Moats
- Healthy Stock Picks
- Hidden Gems Investing
- Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter
- Ian’s Insider Corner
- John Hempton's Newsletter
- Kairos Research
- Lewistown Capital
- Maius Partners
- MBI Deep Dives
- Modern Value Investing
- Multibagger Monitor
- Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
- Net Interest
- Nugget Capital Partner's Substack
- Open Insights
- Raging Bull Investments
- Rebound Capital
- Rod’s Ruminations
- scuttleblurb
- SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets
- smallvalue.
- Speedwell Memos
- Stock Thoughts
- Substack von Philipp
- Sunday's Idea Brunch
- Sylence Capital
- The Curious Compounder
- The Mikro Kap
- The Oak Bloke
- The Value Road
- Treasure Hunting
- Triple S Special Situations Investing
- TSOH Investment Research
- Underlying Value
- Value Don't Lie
- XIX Value
- Yet Another Value Blog
Blogs 11
X accounts we follow
Every account on this site, hand-picked.
⚽️📡
A Capital
AltayCap
Bank Reg Blog
BDC
Bill Ackman
Broken Moats
BuccoCapital Bloke
catechwilliams
Charles Frischer
Chris Camillo
Clark Square Capital
Cluseau Investments
Connor Haley
David Orr
Deep Sail Capital
DOMO Capital Management, LLC
Edwin Dorsey
Evan Tindell
Farmer
Fierce_beast
Fred Liu
Gavin Baker
Ian Bezek
JabroniCoin.USD
John_Hempton
junkbondinvestor
kab60
KEDM.com
Laughing Water Capital
Lee Roach
Little Owl Research
Maj Soueidan
marginofdanger
mavix
Mike
Mikro Kap David
Multiples Capital
Myles
Nat Stewart
Negligible Capital
PAA Research
Pernas Research
Porter Collins
Prepared Remarks
Psyop Capital
Raging Capital Ventures
Rusholme Capital
Sahil Khetpal
SG
Tim Eriksen
Timyan Bank Alert
ToffCap
Trevor Scott
Voss Capital
Yaron Naymark
Sectors
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
