Emerge Commerce ($ECOM.V) FINS Review
Emerge Commerce's $44 million COVID-era acquisitions produced losses and impairments, while modestly improved Q2 liquidity leaves its balance sheet and capital needs under scrutiny.
Sunday, August 30, 2026
Aug 30 FTRE $1.8B Fortrea Holdings: The Turnaround Is Showing Up In Earnings Before Revenue
Manimala Misra 5 clicks Aug 30 MSFT $3.8T Microsoft: A High-Quality AI Name That Is No Longer Misunderstood
Vinay Utham, CFA 4 clicksFrom X
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Mexico tariffs likely a negotiating tactic but if enacted would be catastrophic for $CVGW which sources >90% of its avocados from MX. A 25% premium would render MX avocados uncompetitive, drive sourcing of the commodity to South American producers. $CVGW has 0 SA presence.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW. Another red flag. CFO departing after just 2 years w CEO's old buddy as replacement. Massively over-earnings w volumes continuing to decline from lost customers and margins reverting lower.
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
Little Owl Research on X
*THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE* 1/6 I’ve been slowly building a position in $RAVE since December of 2023 but since their most recent annual report I’ve been buying much more aggressively…
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $131M082920 $890M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $103MEVGGF $17B
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5BDGXX $372M
- Sequoia Fund First Half of 2026
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8TGOOGL $4.1T
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6BBRSL $2B
- Maran Capital Management second quarter SPCX
- Intrepid Capital 2Q 2026
PAHC 2026-08-30 Phibro Animal Health: Zoetis Integrated And Better Cash Flow Ahead
Myriam Alvarez 5 clicks
Veeva 2Q’26: “SaaSpocalypse” Cancelled
Veeva beat its $905 million revenue guide with $928 million, up 17.6%, while subscription growth accelerated and GAAP EBIT margin reached…
Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive
Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…
NTG Clarity Networks ($NCI.V) FINS Review
NTG Clarity’s $18.6M of Q2 service revenue sat in contract assets, while $4.6M cash burn cut cash to $2.85M and raises liquidity concerns.
Meta Buys Away its Distraction at Minimal Cost
Meta’s $18 billion teen-addiction settlement makes $5.3 billion contingent on YouTube and TikTok adopting matching restrictions, while…
Making sense of Sandisk’s long-term financial model
Sandisk’s FY28-FY30 model relies on long-term NAND agreements holding near-80% gross-margin floors despite pricing 26-28% below current…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
DMLP 2026-08-30 Dorchester Minerals: Still Attractive - Despite Oil Price Headwinds
IWA Research 4 clicks SBAC 2026-08-29 SBA Communications Corporation: Fast-Growing Dividend, Undervalued
Philip Wang 4 clicks BE 2026-08-29 Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break
Valuation Rewind 5 clicks
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
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