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Nvidia’s earnings report follows Danny’s pre-results long NVDA call and prompts a review of his “Bullmonia.
Thursday, August 27
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Nvidia’s earnings report follows Danny’s pre-results long NVDA call and prompts a review of his “Bullmonia.
@unknowncapital1 Well, no restatement costs/charge for agn… comps for take 5/ new store growth and tailwind from higher pricing and lower input costs in 27… I’m at 550 of ebitda but honestly could be higher if stars align…$drvn
$DRVN So, $VVV will generate $130 mm FCF on a 4.2bn cap in '27 and $DRVN will generate $285 mm FCF (our estimate) in 27 and is a 2.2bn cap. Please explain?
Seadrill's board abruptly fired CEO Simon Johnson after its recovery, while insiders have never bought shares and executives sold stock…
Mean reversion idea: $CALM 1) consistently trades at ~2x BV vs. ~1.5x today 2) consistent BV compounding (~18% CAGR since '06) 3) mid-teens ROEs justify 2x BV 4) net cash >30% BV / >20% market cap (fortress B/S) Cyclical but very short cycle time (supply driven) I own some
Ondas reported $83 million in Q2 2026 revenue and seven acquisitions year-to-date, building its Ondas One autonomous drone platform around…
Great things happen when strong tailwinds coincide with event-driven change. We shared our thesis on select payment companies back in November, while flagging Remitly $RELY's CEO change and aggressive RSU package for the incoming CEO. RELY continues to execute, and CEO S. Gunningham clearly sees an opportunity to keep costs flat while continuing their 20%+ growth
Versant $VSNT, a recent Comcast spin now seems to have found its way up. Weak price action though since the spin on classic spin dynamics, a ‘melting ice-cube’ narrative, and (we think) mainly index selling (it isn’t in the S&P500). A reminder that Versant owns CNBC and some other networks. With a $5.3bn market cap, roughly $2bn net debt, and $1.0-1.5bn free cash flow generation per year, the ‘bet’ here is that you will get your money back in 5-6 years. Imagine if FCF stabilizes. And Versant seems confident, launching a $1bn share buyback, almost 20% of the current market cap.
Buy a a temporarily execution-dislocated AI cooling business at $186 before the mediocre automotive business disappears and the RemainCo gets a clean public valuation? $MOD 🤷♂️ https://t.co/oUeZanrue7
$TLN getting close to the $300 mark. https://t.co/mQH5tWlfY5
Miami International Holdings, the No. 4 options exchange with 17% share, trades at 12x forward EBITDA despite 35% revenue growth, 54%…
UK equities trade at decades-wide discounts to developed-market peers as improving sentiment, capital reform and foreign M&A support a…
$CWST seems like a pretty straightforward short, anything I'm missing? Trades at around 55x underlying earnings despite high single digit organic growth. Acquisition track record is decent but not spectacular. FCF/share has CAGR'd at only 10% over the last decade. Seems expensive
@ArgonathCapital Yeah the problem is crowd strike has a really narrative behind it. $ASAN is my largest single stock short atm.
$IGV up 7% today. My short book (which as of the last couple weeks has become reasonably software heavy) is in painnnn. Hate that these things all just trade as a basket now.
@AMCOracle I get it. Apes think I am stupid. Buy more $AMC. It is good to trade against stupid people.
*ADVENT, STRIPE CONSORTIUM IS SAID TO DROP PURSUIT OF PAYPAL RIP $PYPL
The GTA 6 trailer is insane. Could genuinely cause a boom in strip clubs, guns, drugs and alcohol GTA IV Basket: $RICK likely gets slammed $SWBI $RGR $MSOS $TAP $DEO Etc.
$META has been pulling back on their Anthropic spending a bit this summer but is still spending hundreds of millions per month "Nat Friedman, Meta’s head of A.I. product, has told some employees that if Meta uses only its own coding tools or ones from OpenAI, it could lower Anthropic’s revenue before its public offering, the people said." -- NYT Curious what the S-1 will have to say about this
$IGV +7% $CSU.to $TOI.v $LMN.V +1% TSX operates on a delay
*META COULD SPEND UP TO $10B/YEAR ON ANTHROPIC AI: NYT So $META is like 15%+ of Anthropic's ARR? "At one point this year, Meta internally projected that it could spend as much as $10 billion annually on Anthropic’s A.I. models, said two of the people, who declined to be identified discussing private information. That would have formed a major chunk of Anthropic’s yearly revenue, which the start-up estimated in July would pass $65 billion." - NYT
Not only are $IGV and $SOXX both green today, but $IGV just flipped positive YTD, led higher by $CRM up 20%, and cybersecurity names ripping after $CRWD and $OKTA Software and Semis are friends again https://t.co/pYgkP9Rtsw
70% FY28 revenue growth is incredible, but if you were an $NVDA bear before that call, it’s very unlikely that view has changed (sure maybe funding shorts get covered) The bear argument is more intact than ever. Nvidia’s demand, while very robust, still comes in part from largely unprofitable companies/labs which are of course dependent on Nvidia for financing Jensen addressed these concerns directly, saying "frontier labs sales are skyrocketing, their margins are fantastic…they're generating profitable tokens…they're only limited by the amount of compute” The bear argument isn't going to be solved by fantastic numbers in any given quarter, it will take lots of time to be proven right or wrong
@LownTrevor if you believe that’s the consensus then $TTWO not for you
Please let $TTWO open flat tomorrow because tonight’s GTA VI reaction is “priced in” test me
Mutual Federal Bancorp, $MFDB Announces Adoption of Plan of Conversion and Reorganization to Undertake Second Step ... https://t.co/BkyVGHPxWU
We currently have only one real datapoint to work off from today’s gameplay reveal: depth of player interest in the gameplay. The better the gameplay, the greater the long-term monetization opportunity for $TTWO. That’s the variable I don’t think is priced in yet, and it’s what gives this trade meaningful upside and downside.
Ran dozens of social arb probability scenarios for how the world would react to today’s GTA VI gameplay reveal. This is playing out like a top 5% outcome. Did not expect this. Feels like the market came into today anchored to last week’s hacker leaks and primed for disappointment. It may take a minute to process what just happened. $TTWO
What's the one stock you hope falls due to a "blip" quarter that is likely temporary due to unusual circumstances or investor misinterpretation? Two of my wishes already came true with $SIF and $KLNG. Could throw $FSI into the mix. Next on this early Christmas wish list? $PPIH
@StableBread Nice summary. Thanks for sharing. I’m somewhat excited about the new CEO hire from the competitor, $CECO, who has actually been winning data center contracts.
Anyone have a direct line to $MG, call them now. We have a code red!!! https://t.co/zgvG6Ik5vi
I agree there are differences in HBM vs. NAND. I said we are “around” the peak of the cycle, with $SNDK much more at risk. Memory is an intensely cyclical business with a long history of booms and busts. Cyclical peaks are typically associated with double and triple+ ordering, as we are seeing today. Paybacks on new capacity are 1 year or less; capacity will come. $ASML is the primary limiter of capacity growth for DRAM/HBM, which is bullish for limiting supply growth in those markets. NAND is far less defensible. Memory is the biggest pain point in the ecosystem today and many entrepreneurs and engineers are intensively focused on solving this problem with innovation and other adjustments. De-speccing is already commonplace and memory pooling is coming. Finally, I am not saying it is time to short these stocks (although I am short some $SNDK). What I am saying is it is very poor capital allocation for $MU, $SNDK, etc. to be buying back stock at these multiples of invested capital.
13 years of hype should have made today almost impossible to live up to. Somehow for most GTA fans Rockstar delivered. $TTWO https://t.co/Uh56v646rL
GTA VI gameplay reveal reactions coming in 10/10. You know what I did. $TTWO
$CLST 13d amendment by Stilwell https://t.co/lfqEymJzDt
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
SILC is the only pure play hardware pics and shovels for cybersecurity with $FTNT $NTSK $AVGO $CSCO $DELL etc, etc, as customers With a edge ai CustomNIC biz deals w/ hyperscalers just starting to grow Very uniquely positioned and favorable evaluation building upon multiple Qs of growth
Victory Capital $VCTR is a traditional asset manager that has crushed traditional and alternative asset managers over the last 8 years. Despite being in a “melting ice-cube” industry and not having that much multiple expansion… https://t.co/4uzVT9gRJl https://t.co/rrHsOqxTvM
@1991Wolfpack Glad to hear you avoided that shitshow. I don't know what is more amazing: - Geert still being CEO - $CVM still being listed - Multikine still being "investigational" (I recall reading Asensio reports on it more than 2 decades ago)
A concept I've thought about for awhile w/o making any real progress is running quant strategies with expert human judgements as an input. e.g. a human proclaims that $IGV will mostly trade on vibes for the next 2-3 years, so you start running a quant strategy on it that's purpose built for things that trade on vibes
Geert is one of the sleaziest ceos out there imo, but he does buy the stock from time to time. $CVM https://t.co/6a3DrvDyjj
@BoxLongs They wont close it down. But they could structure something so that $SNAP shareholders no longer footing the bill directly
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
Specs - we are coming to a tipping point one way or the other. Will it be a disaster despite 7k patents filed and $3.5B of sunk cost over a decade and some really cool cutting edge functionality? Probably. That's because there's a limited TAM at the $2.1k price point and given that the specs look absurd. So what will Evan do if sales are horrible? $SNAP
Biohaven’s $795 million global opakalim licensing deal with SK Biopharmaceuticals boosts cash, lowers R&D spending and extends its funding…
Always fascinating people willing to pay over 2x multiple for a company like $TEAM which at current levels hard to argue is pricing in much disruption threat v. an $AMZN which has a higher growth rate too
Subs are the $SNAP inflection nobody has cared about, yet: H/T @Jack64128896 for the find on memories https://t.co/c5FVBZfK4c
Kraneshares China Semiconductor ETF, KSTR, is the only U.S.-listed ETF holding CXMT, giving investors direct exposure to China’s leading…
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
Higher rates threaten equity multiples and AI data-center economics, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital…
ACI Worldwide’s payment software segment grew 9% with a 48% adjusted EBITDA margin, while the company targets 50-60% of operating cash flow…
$MRNA offering $2B of Rule 144 convertible notes but says conversion price tbd. No 8-K so far. Great governance, guys. Keep up the insider sales. https://t.co/JK9PyjstS4
$SRAD already has deep partnership with Kalshi now adds poly Every other competitor will likely have to follow suit to keep up https://t.co/4zOwxX7fKZ
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Hey @elonmusk. Can you DM me $SPCX next quarter EPS? I’m trying to forecast the company in my DCF model. I promise to not trade on this information.
ArcelorMittal’s regional steel franchises, integrated mining and India expansion are lifting EBITDA per ton and supporting per-share…
Vertiv targets 20–22% organic sales CAGR through 2030 as AI data-center power, cooling and services raise content per megawatt and…
BitFuFu’s $93.4 million unexplained long-term payable equals 57% of liabilities, overshadowing sharply higher self-mining and hosting…
General Motors trades at 8.2 times forward earnings as it targets $25 billion of software revenue by 2030 through OnStar, Super Cruise and…
Kinross Gold’s Great Bear and Lobo-Marte projects target 850,000 ounces annually at $800–$1,000 per ounce, underpinning margin expansion,…
Tutor Perini’s Q2 revenue rose 19% to $1.64 billion as higher-margin megaprojects lifted construction income 54%, prompting higher 2026 EPS…