Daily recap, Thursday, September 24

Thursday September 24th

Technology and AI

[scuttleslops] AAPL, SHOP, Databricks, Lonza

Apple has ceded frontier AI to partners like Google while planning AI-native glasses, camera-equipped AirPods and a smart-home hub over the next 12–18 months.

Capital Cycle IQ & the Forensic Files of the Big 5 Hyperscalers

Cassandra Unchained MSFT $3.7T AMZN $2.8T

Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle have $3 trillion of commitments and are driving net investment to 2.07% of GDP, reviving dot-com-era capital-cycle risks.

AMD: AI Agents Give Its Memory Advantage A Much Bigger Market

Seeking Alpha AMD $1T

AMD’s MI455X offers 432 GB of HBM4, 50% more memory than Nvidia’s Rubin, positioning it for memory-intensive enterprise AI agents.

Long Opportunities In Semiconductor Capital Equipment Part I - ASML, AMAT, LRCX

Cestrian Capital Research. ASML $671B AMAT $375B

Oracle: Hyperscaler or Neocloud? A Look into Q1 FY2027

Kakashii's Materials ORCL $437B

Oracle’s Q1 FY2027 AI infrastructure push relies on leasing, debt, customer prepayments and OpenAI’s Stargate project, resembling a neocloud more than a traditional hyperscaler.

𝕏 @P_Remarks

$orcl https://t.co/LsFi1hM04V

Prepared Remarks

ORCL $437B

𝕏 @negligible_cap

ZeroHedge when $ORCL runs into any minor inconvenience https://t.co/Y9NAZd9kSj

Negligible Capital

ORCL $437B

𝕏 @junkbondinvest

The typical argument for data center project debt is that the tenant is IG and therefore unlikely to default. That may be true...if the project is actually finished. $ORCL JUST sent a force majeure notice to Stargate campus, trying to defer payments when/if the buildout gets delayed. This is the $18bn construction loan that FT reported is offered at ~89-91. Remember, construction risk doesn't…

junkbondinvestor

ORCL $437B

𝕏 @negligible_cap

*ORACLE SENDS FORCE MAJEURE NOTICE OVER NEW MEXICO DATA CENTER $ORCL trying to put off payments on the project if it's delayed https://t.co/fTjVGMwUEH

Negligible Capital

ORCL $437B

Ciena & Fabrinet: The Road Ahead for Optics

Aurelion Research CIEN $51B FN $14B

Ciena and Fabrinet benefit as AI clusters require high-speed optics within and between data centers, through networking systems and contract manufacturing respectively.

Atlassian: A $140 Billion Market Growing At 14% Annually Creates A Massive Opportunity

Seeking Alpha TEAM $49B

Atlassian targets a $140 billion market growing 14% annually, with Rovo reaching 5 million monthly active users and assisted actions rising 50% quarter over quarter.

Celestica: 2027 Could Unlock The Next Growth Phase

Seeking Alpha CLS $45B

Celestica expects 2027 revenue growth above 65% as 1.6T, 800G and AI rack programs ramp, despite $1 billion in 2026 CapEx and 10% share dilution.

Photonics And Optics Are In Shortage, Buy Credo

Seeking Alpha CRDO $36B

Credo Technology bypasses the indium phosphide laser shortage with its optical portfolio as AI infrastructure demand shifts toward 1.6T modules.

Consumer Discretionary

𝕏 @ChrisCamillo

@RiduFly how do u follow me and not know i want $AMZN down, not up

Chris Camillo

AMZN $2.8T

𝕏 @ChrisCamillo

if u thought Zuck’s metaverse spending was insane, wait until we see $META’s $AMZN Bedrock and graviton bill to keep Muse running.

Chris Camillo

AMZN $2.8T

𝕏 @ChrisCamillo

He who doesn’t take risks doesn’t drink champagne. $META $AMZN

Chris Camillo

AMZN $2.8T

𝕏 @kab604

"[Biggest] divergence [in decades] between survey data and [consumer behaviour]. This has been going on for a couple of years ... A lot of success in our full-size trucks and SUVs. And no sign of that abating ... The consumer has maintained a strong level of resiliency" - $GM CFO https://t.co/QYQaIS0a6l

kab60

GM $74B

Birkenstock: Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation

Seeking Alpha BIRK $5.2B

Birkenstock targets 13–15% annual revenue growth through FY2028, driven by APAC expansion and closed-toe footwear, while trading at 13.44 times earnings.

Financials

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

BlackRock Investment Portfolios Debut on the Blockchain as Digital Tokens $BLk https://t.co/5XHSFbk9HR

Barbarian Capital

BLK $164B

𝕏 @ActAccordingly

This is one of my favorite charts. It's amazing how small caps went from modestly overbought to NEARLY VIOLENTLY oversold. The picture below tells the story. In general buying when the percentage of Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average drops below 20 has been a massive driver of returns. Conversely selling when the percentage exceeds 70% has preserved capital. The…

PAA Research

IWM $83B

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

“Force majeure” doing a lot of work in that headline when the operative words are “if delayed.” Fully convinced @Bloomberg News is short private credit / $OWL at this point… https://t.co/Uxq4OB0e7w

A Capital

OWL $6.6B

𝕏 @Adam_Wyden

King William as my son likes to refer to him out with his first public position. Don’t sleep on him. $LIFE https://t.co/598FwOWcDh

Adam D. Wyden

LIFE $2.3B

BURFORD CAPITAL LIMITED (BUR): Long

Value Investors Club written June 26th BUR $794M

Burford Capital is presented as a long investment idea.

Healthcare

𝕏 @stockgutter

$NKTR $90m verdict per Law360. Will likely disappoint bulls. https://t.co/vMP6m69Eqk

NKTR $2B

Nutex Health: The Stock Has Had A Great Run, But New Guidance Justifies A Higher Target Price (Rating Upgrade)

Seeking Alpha NUTX $1.4B

Nutex Health raises its target price to $290.43 as FY2026 EPS consensus reaches $27.79, leaving NUTX at 10.5 times forward earnings.

𝕏 @Fierce__beast

I am short $INMD. The stock will go lower i think if the business continues to deteriorate. Unfortunately, the guidance changes and results have caused me to essentially lose a lot of trust in anything the management says. I have been following this company for years. Sparing you the details, my view is not that I think fair value is significantly lower, but rather that there is just very small…

Fierce_beast

INMD $816M

Communication Services

𝕏 @finphysnerd

$META is going to be a killer short soon. Not because I think it's overvalued, I don't. But because the new ownership base is a bunch of paper handed hype followers that will drop it at the first crack.

Myles

META $1.9T

𝕏 @leevalueroach

Disclosing a large short position in $META. Thesis: Muse is offered free of charge with no meaningful cap on inference consumption. Meta is absorbing the full cost of compute, memory, and power on every query in pursuit of user growth. We believe this subsidy is unsustainable under adversarial usage. Position: We have deployed 10,000 endpoints running maximally compute-intensive workloads on a…

Lee Roach

META $1.9T

𝕏 @pitdesi

I built a trading bot that buys the “most hated” Mag 7 stock each month. Ranks by 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns, buys the worst average rank, reruns monthly. Last month: $META This month: $TSLA Since 5/23 (Mag7 coined): +347% HatedM7 +162% Mag 7 +90% S&P 500 https://t.co/lp1CwoCTGu

Sheel Mohnot

META $1.9T

𝕏 @LaughingH20Cap

@darkstarsats 3/x $NN) so while you are calling $NN's 15 MHz of low a "small slice" in reality it is not much smaller than what $T bought, and it could be multiples of what they have AVAILABLE

Laughing Water Capital

T $172B

Formula 1: Liberty Media’s Drive for Success

Open Insights FWONK $24B

Liberty Media bought Formula 1 for $4.4 billion in 2017 and monetizes its exclusive commercial rights through racing, media and sponsorship.

LIBERTY CAPITAL CORP (GLIBA): Long

Value Investors Club written June 26th GLIBA $936M

Liberty Capital Corp, GLIBA, is pitched long following its July 2025 spinoff from Liberty Broadband.

‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌

Consumer Staples

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

Costco Reports Higher Fourth-Quarter Profit as Sales, Membership Fees Rise https://t.co/tRQ28bqJ2p $COST

Barbarian Capital

COST $398B

Industrials

𝕏 @negligible_cap

*BLUE ORIGIN RAISES $10B AT $140B VALUATION: WSJ Blue Origin’s first ever outside capital raise. Per WSJ they’re expecting to do $1.4B in revenue this year, and over $30B by 2030. That puts their valuation at 100x this year’s sales. $SPCX is valued at only around 45x FY26 sales estimate. SPCX looking like a steal

Negligible Capital

SPCX $2T

Honeywell: Post-Spin Growth Story Is Just Getting Started

Seeking Alpha HON $67B

Honeywell is refocusing on automation after its Aerospace and Advanced Materials spinoffs, with a 1.1x book-to-bill ratio, raised guidance and data center opportunities supporting growth.

𝕏 @ActAccordingly

All trading below their 200-day moving averages right now: - Dow transports ($DJT) - Industrials $XLI - Retail $XRT - $GS Right at the 200-day MA - $KRE. $RUT seems destined to test the 200-day. Normal late September action, but it doesn't feel good. I guess we're setting the state for some golden crosses come late October/November or we're going lower. $MAGS carrying the day like 2024 when we…

PAA Research

XLI $23B

Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste: Quant Ratings Say Sell, But The Underlying Moat Says Strong Buy

Seeking Alpha ASR $6.6B

ASR’s $992 million Motiva acquisition broadens its South American airport network after a 25% YTD decline, while its 8.5% FCF yield and 7.5–8x EV/EBITDA support a strong-buy case.

Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update

Monte Independent Investment Research FLY $3.9B

Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for Blue Ghost, Elytra and Eclipse.

BW LPG: A 10-12 Month Buy Before New Supply Catches Up

Seeking Alpha BWLP $3.7B

BW LPG has Q3 VLGC rates mostly fixed at $88,000 a day against a $24,900 breakeven, supporting elevated earnings and dividends before new vessel supply arrives.

Maximus: A Discount To Peers, Even If The Recent Contract Change Is Permanent

Seeking Alpha MMS $2.9B

Maximus trades at 6.9x fiscal 2026 EPS guidance after the VA paused medical-exam incentives, below Leidos and Booz Allen despite lower leverage.

Navios Maritime Partners: Significant Upside Still Ahead

Seeking Alpha NMM $2.5B

Navios Maritime Partners targets $150-plus per unit by late 2027 as dry-bulk cargo demand, fleet scarcity and $200 million of buybacks support earnings and NAV.

EuroDry: Strong Prospects But Downgrading On Valuation Concerns - Hold

Seeking Alpha EDRY $157M

EuroDry shares rose more than 300% year to date as dry bulk markets strengthened, but an aging fleet, no dividend and a $20 million equity program raise valuation concerns.

Materials

𝕏 @valuedontlie

Just covered the $CTVA $VYLR spin-off... could be interesting, but not likely pre-spin... Going to unpack the THRM/MOD spin/RMT next week https://t.co/8w2zrsxlNd https://t.co/bxh5z5LpNc

Colin King

CTVA $54B

TMC the metals company: A Speculative Bet On U.S. Seabed Mineral Independence

Seeking Alpha TMCR $282M

The Metals Company’s U.S. commercial permit pursuit makes it a first mover in deep-sea mineral extraction, with regulatory progress central to starting operations.

Read the whole day

Get this by email every morning at 6am.

Always stay up to date