Daily recap, Wednesday, September 23

Wednesday September 23rd

Technology and AI

Monte Independent Investment Research MU $1.2T ADI $189B

Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI infrastructure demand.

Intel: The Party Is Only Getting Started

Seeking Alpha INTC $644B

Intel reported Q2 2026 revenue of $16.13 billion, up 25.4%, as AI PCs and data-center CPUs lifted margins and narrowed foundry losses.

𝕏 @junkbondinvest

Anyone underwriting software credit should have a look at this When software buyers adopt frontier models, incumbent vendors see lower spend 43% of the time and flat spend 41%. Only 17% churn... This report (Qualitate) suggests FLAT spending is the stage BEFORE displacement. Buyers pause first w/o ripping out systems that are embedded in a company's ops. Look at $NOW...the AI-related pressure is…

junkbondinvestor

NOW $145B

Nebius Raised Prices Again - Now $7.8 Billion Has To Earn Its Keep

Seeking Alpha NBIS $64B

Cognizant: Rogue AI Agents Need Guardrails

Seeking Alpha CTSH $27B

Cognizant trades at 10.65 times forward earnings as its AI agent integration and safety tools target enterprise demand for human controls over autonomous systems.

𝕏 @red_dog_capital

$BSP a Muse short? Hey Muse, cancel all these consumer app subscriptions after they price gouged me and migrate to an open source or cheaper alternative? @Musecases

Red Dog Capital

BSP $22B

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

This non-circumvent is very good for $FSLR which is now < $200… https://t.co/Tc3GXdZRLk

A Capital

FSLR $22B

SiTime: Wall Street May Be Underestimating Its Growth

Seeking Alpha SITM $19B

SiTime’s MEMS timing portfolio, Renesas acquisition and 1.6T transition are positioned to drive growth and margin expansion as supply constraints ease.

𝕏 @OddDiligence

Interesting $FSLY finding from testing Meta Muse. Through a series of hundreds of tests, it appears that the $FSLY role with Meta Muse is greater than analysts have noted Over the past week, I created several test websites and ran 738 controlled tests to send traffic from Muse agents to my websites I set up analytics on my website, and I was able to track things like IP address, user agent,…

Odd Diligence

FSLY $4.1B

Consumer Discretionary

𝕏 @red_dog_capital

@dalibali2 Same for $AMZN. Controlling the front end isn’t going to replace low prices (scale) and fast delivery speeds (unmatched physical network).

Red Dog Capital

AMZN $2.8T

𝕏 @SowingAlphaSeed

I'm not very interested in buying $MCD because I think they've lost their core competency, which is being efficient. Their product now costs a lot and isn't delivered nearly as quickly as Chick-fil-A.

Farmer

MCD $169B

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

McDonald's CEO expects high inflation, flat traffic are not going away for restaurant industry $MCD https://t.co/ZIgM3fUPpK

Barbarian Capital

MCD $169B

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

"displaying advertising for other companies on its digital drive-thru order boards as part of a pilot" Why McDonald's is following Walmart and Amazon into the advertising business $MCD https://t.co/eW0y5UCUnw

Barbarian Capital

MCD $169B

MOBILITY GLOBAL INC -SPN (MBGL): Long

Value Investors Club written June 25th MBGL $5.6B

Mobility Global Inc. will become a standalone public company through S&P Global’s spin-off of its Mobility division.

NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS INC (EYE): Long

Value Investors Club written June 25th EYE $1.3B

National Vision Holdings, EYE, is pitched long as one of the largest optical retailers.

Financials

Mastercard (MA): Long

Value Investors Club written June 25th MA $487B

Mastercard trades near $495, about 18% below its $602 52-week high, framing a favorable long risk-reward case.

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

$LPLA’s customer is the independent financial advisor, not the end investor. Advisors own the client relationship. LPL provides the custody, compliance and infrastructure. The idea that Muse justifies a 7.5% selloff is perception <> reality… https://t.co/VA013VwL2T

A Capital

LPLA $26B

𝕏 @junkbondinvest

Update on Loparex, the loan Blue Owl marked from 88 to 5 cents in just 8 months. The restructuring is now set. $OWL's entire ~$160mm 2L gets wiped out for a small piece of equity. Monarch and General Atlantic take control after buying the 1L at distressed prices earlier this year. Looks like the 5 cent mark in June was close to right. The question was always why it was 88 six months earlier...

junkbondinvestor

OWL $6.7B

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

Perception <> Reality $OWL selling off on a $1bn Loparex restructuring headline, despite having already marked its second-lien exposure to 5 cents on the dollar at June 30, down from 63 cents in March. That excludes any potential equity recovery… Thx for the “gift” Bloomberg… https://t.co/5p1wrv5PzL

A Capital

OWL $6.7B

𝕏 @SowingAlphaSeed

@AltayCapital I've started buying TIPs. I'm also very tax inefficient. Might starting buying more $BOXA.

Farmer

BOXA

Energy

𝕏 @irbezek

@caseyjdonaldson @lhamtil I made 6-8x on $CNQ calls from that time period. I expect to make 3x on my long duration U.S. gov bonds ($EDV specifically). Could do better with calls but I don't have a strong view on exact timeline it plays out.

Ian Bezek

CNQ $98B

New Era Energy & Digital: 207 MW Deal Could Unlock 1.4 GW AI Giant

Seeking Alpha NUAI $808M

New Era Energy & Digital secured a 20-year Vistra power deal for 200 to 207 MW, reducing Phase 1 risk for its planned 1.4 GW West Texas AI data center campus.

Healthcare

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated: Testing Growth Keeps Me Bullish Despite Medicare Headwinds

Seeking Alpha DGX $26B

Quest Diagnostics, DGX, is expanding through hospital partnerships, dialysis services and advanced diagnostics while Medicare reimbursement pressure and goodwill write-down risk remain.

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

Event-driven 🤮 We saw this last week w/ $COO Good entry point? 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/5eZ8Fpxj2w

A Capital

COO $10B

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

Grail’s Multi-Cancer Blood Test Gets FDA Committee Vote for Premarket Approval $GRAL https://t.co/bdcNEQtgT5

Barbarian Capital

GRAL $4.3B

𝕏 @BlueDuckCap

Recommend Banyan's substack for anyone researching $STLN, the MASSIVE opportunity for the company, and their ideal position within Oncology today. If you want to skip the industry jargon and go straight to the MEAT just read the summary of the CEO quotes from recent conferences. These guys are crushing it, and it will be a much bigger company imho.

BDC

STLN $696M

𝕏 @majgeoinvesting

So, you wanna be a microcap day trader? $IMCC just body slammed early A.M. traders: Step 1: Announce acquisition with vagueish details Step 2: Pump the bitch 145% Step 3: Whoopsy! BTW, we're doing an offering below yesterday close Step 4: Stock roundtrips Step 5: Class Dismissed https://t.co/tPCwgXHwgP

Maj Soueidan

IMCC $2.6M

Communication Services

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

When $META convert?

A Capital

META $1.7T

𝕏 @TidefallCapital

What a glow up. $META 2026: Grant permission to all data for Muse $META 2020: https://t.co/iHZizTpG85

Trevor Scott

META $1.7T

𝕏 @negligible_cap

It still amazes me how long it often takes the markets to react to something like Muse META released Muse on September 8th, right around 2 weeks ago (Instinct was even earlier, at the end of August and had similar implications) You had over a full week where nothing really happened besides $META slowly moving higher. That is until Monday, where META shot up 11% and all the Muse winners…

Negligible Capital

META $1.7T

𝕏 @OddDiligence

$SRAD is explicitly mentioned in $META Muse source code & technical documentation - although functionality does not appear to have been turned on yet I believe Meta will expand their relationship with Sportradar https://t.co/OS10T9268i https://t.co/MzTsyf3WV0

Odd Diligence

META $1.7T

COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HLDGS (CCOI): Long

Value Investors Club written June 25th CCOI $476M

Cogent Communications (CCOI) is presented as a long investment idea, revisiting prior bull cases from 2022 and 2025.

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Consumer Staples

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

$PM $BTI $MO U.S. Regulators Plan Major Move to Speed Authorizations of Vapes, Tobacco Pouches https://t.co/aaQ7DSzIvP

Barbarian Capital

PM $296B

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

General Mills Profit, Sales Slip as Turnaround Continues $GIS https://t.co/hCadtnVNZ8

Barbarian Capital

GIS $19B

Turning Point Brands: The Market Is Now Overly Concerned (Rating Upgrade)

Seeking Alpha TPB $1.2B

Turning Point Brands reaffirmed 2026 guidance after a CEO change, while ALP and FRE expansion has compressed margins through marketing and sales investment.

Industrials

𝕏 @OddDiligence

$CCXI $GNRC mY Llm SeYs sO ShiTTy tO giVe AmAzoN WaRranTs MuSt bE ShiTcO https://t.co/qB8BwzvlHZ

Odd Diligence

GNRC $12B

𝕏 @KEDM_COM

StandardAero $SARO announced that Paul McElhinney will be its new CEO, effective Oct 1st. While the reasons behind Ford's retirement after 13 years as CEO are unknown, having a CEO with strong ties to GE is helpful, given that SARO makes its money repairing GE engines. SARO is the value investor's play on the aerospace aftermarket.

KEDM.com

SARO $7.5B

A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t

Calvin Blissett ZIM $3.7B

ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing is delayed or rejected.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: Strategic Crossroads - Acquisition Or Dividend Bonanza Ahead

Seeking Alpha ZIM $3.7B

ZIM faces Israeli review of Hapag-Lloyd’s $35-per-share bid, with $2.46 billion cash and elevated transpacific rates supporting potential dividends if the deal fails.

𝕏 @BlueDuckCap

Security was a breeze at Sofi thanks to $evlv https://t.co/J0TVDC7F8Q

BDC

EVLV $880M

𝕏 @Mike10947310

$ESP - solid earnings. Numbers were record high, but main negative is book-to-bill sub 1. However, that's expected as funding will flow in '27. One interesting thing - they added language about positive revenue growth into '27. Normally they haven't provided any sort of guidance.

Mike

ESP $193M

Materials

B2Gold: Mali Said Yes, And The Buybacks Can Now Do The Heavy Lifting

Seeking Alpha BTG $9.9B

B2Gold targets output growth from 870,000 ounces in 2024 to about 1.04 million by 2028 as Fekola’s permit and Goose’s ramp lift margins and support buybacks.

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

Activist Starboard Urges Construction Company to Explore Sale $KNF https://t.co/SaDmClimTV

Barbarian Capital

KNF $3.2B