Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sector

Macro

Everything our editor has picked under this sector, best first.

197 stories

@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

“Hey honey, Trump signed a deal with Greenland. I’m going to get ahead of everyone by buying Greenland Energy stock on my Robinhood account. It’s a sure thing!” You absolutely fade this. $GLND is so far from commercial production it’s a joke. Retail will pump it because it has “Greenland” in the name. This isn’t anything like the situation with $KYIV, an established business that has generated hundreds of millions of dollars of FCF, with a potential Ukraine peace deal as additional upside optionality…

The Week That Was

Federal Reserve’s quarter-point hike failed to contain 10-year yields above 5%, while rising legacy-chip rentals and AI safety compute…

NVDA $5.2TNBIS $56B
CV's Substack
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Could see $JACK, $WEN, $PZZA all go bankrupt. Probably others across the QSR space (subway, Pizza Hut some of the more challenged private operators) -- to be fair some of these could get acquired too but interesting how that would play through commercial real estate and impact the non distressed survivors -- very challenging space with prices having soared (affordability) and consumers pushing back or finding better/comparable value at a Chili's etc. Freight costs (diesel and trucker shortage from policy moves) and food costs that are/will escalate (freight and commodities) is going to bring new challenges to margins. Menu prices likely need to reset lower across many of these chains but that is a very difficult process for owners and franchises to accomplish especially while input costs continue to rise. GLP1s hurt overall volume trends as well but......look out to automation/robotics in store and how trends tend to switch back to QSR/fast food in a more stressed economic condition there might be select opportunities in the coming months for a few players as prices have/are resetting fast across tis space
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

One of the many ways how the new market structure is so frustrating at times..... $EXPE moves higher both days this week despite a significant increase in both rates (credit cards) and oil (jet fuel) that directly makes their business more challenged moving forward (weakened consumer + high airfares), but the power of sector buying Software/ai disruption (where an its sits) as people push out of semi and forced to cover their paired shorts overwhelms the fundamentals. Headless flows dominate the market
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

$BKD - accelerating occupancy on operational improvements. Red-hot August making up for a softer than expected June. New chief sales officer seems to be doing a solid job. Renovations also helping. Like this management team. It might be an obvious play on Boomers aging but just because its obvious doesn't mean it won't work. The supply/demand mismatch is just econ 101. Lots of room to go if they keep up this solid execution under new management. Higher rates for longer keeps deters new supply too.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Rate sensitive / consumer spending names starting to really take on water with rates and oil up....Game theory probably suggests the administration is likely to pull more tricks out of their sleeves leading into the midterms to try and increase affability and control rates (at least for talking points). --- Already witnessing a vert activist treasury secretary that (at least so far) did not succeed with his 6B buyback (but next month when the TGA refunding comes out I imagine he will use a much bigger mechanism to manipulate rates through the election) --- I also think the fed is much less likely to raise rates then the market is pricing (the committee members even beyond Warsh do not have the will to raise (Powell, Williams, etc) --- I also believe they will announce some sort of housing plan to have as a talking point for the closing stretch of these raises (down payment assistance, rate support, mass housing supply push on federal lands, etc). Does not matter if they never follow through, but something to come in mind as we play out the coming months I think some select housing plays that are blown out on weak starts, high rates, poor affordability, high commodity prices, etc. could be putting in attractive setups to go the other way for the coming months to election ($QXO, $LOW, $BLDR, $SSD)