Sector
Everything our editor has picked under this sector, best first.
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@theotheraharon But i'm looking for ideas that have been specifically impacted by the degrossing event. Not sure $MXCT or $RARE are correlated to that. The idea is find stocks that are irrationally selling off or getting bid due to the degrossing, then pick your spots from the list you find.
@SolutionOrganic There are other reasons, beyond the return to buy it. But my base case is closer to 8% here. But there are reasons for instance that if inflation rise or rates increase, i think bonds would suffer more than $MCD and $otis at this valuation if you look out 1 year
I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.
i went long $otis and $MCD this week. i'm not really expecting anything spectacular, maybe 6% returns from these ideas, hoping for 8%+. but i think after this drawdown they present decent risk/rewards in a case where interest rates and or inflation continue to worsen. $OTIS did well during the great recession 08/09. -6% organic sales drop, op profit down only 1.2%. Valuable asset in that sense, even though the upside is capped a bit here as things are slowing down for it globally. This is not a bullet proof scenario that they do well in the next recession, stock could still drop 40%.
Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Meta and Alphabet face another two years of record AI data-center investment amid $3 trillion in commitments,…
Ngl I'm the most bulled up I've been in a while here. Not bullish the entire market and $SPY, but bullish stuff like breadth, $RSP, low vol stuff. Breadth has crashed, sentiment is in the toilet, and October is historically pretty strong seasonality wise. https://t.co/Q3nWJ8IpAN
Steve Eisman says AI companies are reviving Enron-era off-balance-sheet and circular financing, alongside concerns around Oracle and Blue…
U.S. Treasury yields are testing credit and equity markets, while the discussion also targets recent changes at Glass House (GLAS).
Long Treasury yields hit 2007 highs after a weak $70 billion five-year auction, even as the Nasdaq set records and Meta detailed its Muse…
There was a small part of me that thought $CROX was going to rip yesterday after Alex Wang wore them at Meta Connect. Didn't happen. Makes me feel a little better about market froth levels https://t.co/YicRcUsEcM
@Biohazard3737 Don't forget to include the very relevant index constituent $PURR to the tally.
JPMorgan says oil prices are increasingly hard to model as market buffers weaken, prompting a scorecard ranking energy stocks by upside…
Dilantha De Silva People really need to stop thinking about 5% yields over 10 years or 30 years. Even the inflation of my $SUBWAY sandwich has gone up like 12% a year. Today it was like $20 after tax, when it used to be like $5… 12 years ago. The best way to keep up with inflation of the things that matter, like Sandwiches, is equities like $SPY.
@AncientSion Rates bro, rates. The irony is that $FSLR gets lumped into the generic “rates up = solar down” trade, even though $FSLR itself is not a levered solar-project owner/developer...
All trading below their 200-day moving averages right now: - Dow transports ($DJT) - Industrials $XLI - Retail $XRT - $GS Right at the 200-day MA - $KRE. $RUT seems destined to test the 200-day. Normal late September action, but it doesn't feel good. I guess we're setting the state for some golden crosses come late October/November or we're going lower. $MAGS carrying the day like 2024 when we dreamed of lower deficits and lower rates....
Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle have $3 trillion of commitments and are driving net investment to 2.07% of GDP, reviving…
If you're curious about the random $SPY / $QQQ candle: Just now, “US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade" - Reuters - "A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain oil prices and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices." - "Trump has said he thinks the US and Iran could reach a deal after midterm elections to Congress on November.” Would make sense for Trump to want markets as strong as possible during Midterms elections…
This is one of my favorite charts. It's amazing how small caps went from modestly overbought to NEARLY VIOLENTLY oversold. The picture below tells the story. In general buying when the percentage of Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average drops below 20 has been a massive driver of returns. Conversely selling when the percentage exceeds 70% has preserved capital. The headline here: We're oversold in small caps following the spike in interest rates and crude oil prices. We're not at a clear buy signal yet, but it's close. $IWM
"[Biggest] divergence [in decades] between survey data and [consumer behaviour]. This has been going on for a couple of years ... A lot of success in our full-size trucks and SUVs. And no sign of that abating ... The consumer has maintained a strong level of resiliency" - $GM CFO https://t.co/QYQaIS0a6l
McDonald's CEO expects high inflation, flat traffic are not going away for restaurant industry $MCD https://t.co/ZIgM3fUPpK
@AltayCapital I've started buying TIPs. I'm also very tax inefficient. Might starting buying more $BOXA.
I ran some analysis on collectibles for $GME. When M2 money supply increases, spending on things like Pokemon cards increases. More money in circulation means more demand for collectibles. When money is cheap and plentiful, people bid up hard assets and speculative collectibles. https://t.co/h7Mvb6zrNx https://t.co/urTnqJzzOU
@caseyjdonaldson @lhamtil I made 6-8x on $CNQ calls from that time period. I expect to make 3x on my long duration U.S. gov bonds ($EDV specifically). Could do better with calls but I don't have a strong view on exact timeline it plays out.
Wow Bitcoin + Ethereum pulled pretty extreme recoveries. Looks like $HOOD / $COIN / Crypto is back? On-chain equities trading + regulator exemptions probably put a lot of fuel into the fire for the sector. That aside... crypto is usually a great indicator for high-beta AI equities believe it or not (they tend to frontrun broader market drops or rallies). So overall market risk appetite might be coming back despite the rate hikes.
