Daily recap, Wednesday, September 30

Wednesday September 30th

Most viewed

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets NVDA $5.6T META $2T

Meta’s Muse illustrates how persistent AI agents shift compute from per-query to per-user, driving heavier GPU, CPU and memory demand.

Micron (NASDAQ: MU) Stock Rating: Hold After Q4 FY8/26 Earnings - No Change To Rating

Cestrian Capital Research MU $1.2T

Micron reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $54.2 billion, up 379%, and guided Q1 revenue to $61.5 billion. The Hold rating remains while MU trades above its roughly $960 50-day moving average.

Technology and AI

Why AMD Is the Most Overhyped Chip Stock | Ben Pouladian on Meta’s Muse, Anthropic IPO, & Semis

The Monetary Matters Network NVDA $5.6T AMD $992B

Ben Pouladian argues AMD’s Helios racks cannot match NVIDIA GPUs’ fungibility and financing appeal as agentic AI shifts the bottleneck to token costs, power and permitted data-center land.

𝕏 @negligible_cap

I’m not saying I think $AAPL is worth 35x earnings but I do think Ternus is going to go on a generational heater. Hardware guy that wants more product releases and wants to cut fat https://t.co/8nGQpm9GgP

Negligible Capital

AAPL $4.9T

Microsoft: The Xbox Segment Revamp

Seeking Alpha MSFT $3.8T

Microsoft plans to rebuild Xbox after FY2026 through studio cuts, higher hardware prices, Game Pass growth, exclusive releases and the 2028 Xbox Helix launch.

𝕏 @convequity

Judging Tower Semiconductor ($TSEM) by how advanced its chip process is misses what its chips are for. Skeptics often set Tower's older 65 nm process against the more advanced processes at TSMC ($TSM). That yardstick suits logic chips, which are judged on transistor density. It does not suit the analog chips Tower makes for optics. 1. In an optical engine, the analog front-end is the circuitry…

Convequity

TSM $2.4T

𝕏 @negligible_cap

Aterio flagging that they see a material risk that $ORCL misses their 2H 2027 delivery guidance on their 1.3 GW Wisco datacenter, with meaningful load now unlikely before mid-2028 https://t.co/Rywn1UhoOC https://t.co/zmgGeRZ7eR

Negligible Capital

ORCL $401B

𝕏 @convequity

$PANW and $DDOG both put something real inside the customer's systems that an AI lab cannot recreate by calling SaaS APIs. Palo Alto's install is still harder to replace with AI. 1. Datadog's agents mostly sit outside the traffic and watch production. A bad agent version rarely takes the business down the way a bad firewall rule can. 2. Palo Alto's firewalls and SASE cloud gateways sit inside the…

Convequity

PANW $311B

Undercovered Dozen: Vicor, Rayonier, Accenture And More

Seeking Alpha VICR $13B RYN $5.6B

Vicor, Rayonier, Accenture and nine other lesser-covered stocks make up Seeking Alpha’s Undercovered Dozen.

Consumer Discretionary

Amazon: AI Growth Story Looks Great Until You Ask Who's Paying

Seeking Alpha AMZN $2.7T

Amazon expects $220 billion of capex against over $25 billion of AWS AI ARR, with Anthropic and OpenAI projected to supply 73% of AI revenue through 2027.

𝕏 @junkbondinvest

Fitch just assigned Tesla a 1st-time BBB rating and people are already speculating about a big inaugural IG bond deal Remember when they had JUNK bonds? The coupon on the 2017 deal was 5.3% (not a typo). In retrospect, that's cheaper than what they'd pay for IG money today $TSLA

junkbondinvestor

TSLA $1.4T

𝕏 @leevalueroach

Institutional money is now coming to the card market. How much cards do you think Coinbase and all of the institutional pigs need to buy to create this demand? There is a reason why Ryan Cohen is buying $GME in the open market in size. Card prices about to go limit up. https://t.co/4QOjJa96Wc

Lee Roach

GME $12B

𝕏 @finphysnerd

@ArgonathCapital Yeah Nice Info services and Misto (paired with a $GOLF short) are large positions for me.

Myles

GOLF $4.8B

𝕏 @leevalueroach

Pretty good thesis on $MNRO here. I think it gets sold soon. https://t.co/nx6knvA1Ng

Lee Roach

MNRO $437M

Financials

𝕏 @KEDM_COM

Both Up Fintech $TIGR and Futu $FUTU benefited from Asians YOLO-ing into 3x levered long MU and SPCX ETFs, with FUTU now up significantly since the regulatory crackdown in May. They only started throttling Mainland accounts in mid-June so the real impact won't be visible until next quarter. ~12x P/E ex-Mainland if you annualize Q2, although Q3 is bound to be a little weaker.

KEDM.com

FUTU $16B

Annaly Capital Management: Rate Swaps Doing The Heavy Lifting For This REIT

Seeking Alpha NLY $15B

Annaly Capital Management’s rate swaps and MBS expansion lifted earnings available for distribution 28% year over year, supporting its 14.5% dividend yield.

𝕏 @SowingAlphaSeed

@svrnco @ASchulz888 @irbezek Hmm... $TLT implied vol is <15% for the January '29 expiry. Looks like an ATM straddle pays off if rates move by at least 1.5 percentage points in either direction. Probably not a bad trade.

Farmer

TLT $10B

Victory Capital Holdings: Multiple Pillars Of Growth

Seeking Alpha VCTR $6.8B

Victory Capital’s First Eagle acquisition is expected to lift 2027 EPS 35%, taking pro forma AUM to $570 billion and annual revenue to $3.2 billion.

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

@P_Remarks $THEON $DLO $TOI.NE

Deep Sail Capital

DLO $4.1B

Sezzle: Why I Think The Sell-Off Is An Opportunity

Seeking Alpha SEZL $3.6B

Sezzle reports subscribers up 76.4%, transactions up 32% and quarterly GMV up 38%, with expanding margins supporting improved profitability and outlook.

Sezzle: The Market Does Not See The Next Growth Phase

Seeking Alpha SEZL $3.6B

Sezzle’s Q2 revenue rose 51.7% as subscribers grew 76.4%, while SezzleCash and Sezzle Send add growth potential and greater underwriting risk.

𝕏 @stockgutter

Happy $MKTW dividend day for those who celebrate ( $PAGS $EVC too)

PAGS $2.6B

NASDAQ:YB 10% dividend, 2x P/E, 30% growth, AI beneficiary, secular tailwinds, founder CEO I think is as good as Bezos/Walton

Calvin Blissett YB $553M

Yuanbao pairs a 10.2% dividend and cash exceeding its market value with 33.5% first-half profit growth from AI-enabled Chinese insurance distribution.

3 Mergers and 1 Liquidation in the Danger Zone

Triple S Special Situations Investing IMXI $349M STRS $145M

Stratus Properties liquidates Austin real estate below projected distributions, while Atlantic Lithium and Intermex await approvals for cash mergers.

Energy

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) Stock Rating: Move To Distribute After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings - Near-Peak Margins And The Iran War

Cestrian Capital Research CVX $407B

Chevron moved to Distribute at $204 after Q2 free cash flow reached $18.1 billion on $104 Brent, with near-peak margins driving supernormal cash flow.

Occidental Petroleum: Great Inventories To Ride Lower Structural Capex In The Industry

Seeking Alpha OXY $57B

Occidental Petroleum could benefit as declining shale inventories and high rates curb industry capex, tightening oil supply against demand through 2028.

EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) Stock Rating: Hold After Q2 FY12/26 - Why Europe's Gas Shortage Has Not Lifted The Stock

Cestrian Capital Research EQT $30B

EQT remains tied to roughly $3 Henry Hub gas despite European prices near $23 per MMBtu, with US LNG export capacity limiting overseas demand until new projects start through 2027.

𝕏 @DOMOCAPITAL

Not good for corn / corn basis. Good for $ALTO $GPRE https://t.co/Vv0h05uhzy

DOMO Capital Management, LLC

GPRE $1B

Healthcare

𝕏 @leevalueroach

@InsiderHawk Why is $SYK selling off?

Lee Roach

SYK $104B

𝕏 @BrokenMoats

Someone really should investigate the price action into some of these ancillary biotech stocks.....very reminiscent of a certain Situational Awareness with chip stocks earlier in the year. No one is filing ownership and yet these stocks push higher regardless of macro, or geopolitical news or the overall index moves. Someone with swaps? or options likely at play then using the momentum pf retail…

Broken Moats

TWST $12B

Precigen: The FDA's Platform Technology Designation And The Institutional Crossover Effect

Seeking Alpha PGEN $2.8B

Precigen’s FDA platform technology designation for AdenoVerse supports PAPZIMEOS uptake in recurrent respiratory papillomatosis and expands PGEN’s HPV-disorder pipeline.

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Is The Bond Market Running On Empty?

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” GLAS $466M

U.S. Treasury yields are testing credit and equity markets, while the discussion also targets recent changes at Glass House (GLAS).

𝕏 @valuedontlie

$LFCR finally getting bought out... $6.28 cash + CVR with potential for another $3.39 per share based on post-close revenue performance Stock trading around $6.60 so paying ~30c for the optionality today https://t.co/wnVDBD8jXK

Colin King

LFCR $247M

SEER INC (SEER): Long

Value Investors Club written July 2nd SEER $115M

SEER Inc became a founder-offer special situation just before publication.

Communication Services

𝕏 @pitdesi

These benchmarks are great, but I'm waiting to see how it does in the bridge benchmark :) also - probably should be long $GOOG https://t.co/5hdtMmiq4H https://t.co/4B1R4VX3J5

Sheel Mohnot

GOOGL $4.3T

𝕏 @negligible_cap

Gemini 4 - "Across most benchmarks, Gemini 4 Argon beats OpenAI’s and Anthropic’s top models by a wide margin, and when it doesn’t, it is generally within striking distance of its competition." - New Stack $GOOG ripping. So back https://t.co/3mF0pFC7WN https://t.co/hybzgxCRRC

Negligible Capital

GOOGL $4.3T

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

@alexandr_wang This kids meme game is strong. Might have to look at $META from a special situations angle now.

A Capital

META $2T

𝕏 @KEDM_COM

TIM Brazil $TIMS3.BZ / $TIMB will be buying back ~55m shares over the next 18 months. Not a huge buyback (2.3% of s/o), but this one is notable because s/o have been roughly stable since, what, 2014? Also, the stock is down 40% from ATH over the past few months while TIM keeps growing. We saw something very similar in 2024 (the price action, not the buyback), with the shares moving +100% the…

KEDM.com

TIMB $8.7B

Consumer Staples

𝕏 @valuedontlie

$CALM down ~8% pre-market on 1Q27 results Likely another few quarters til cycle turn (?), balance sheet still rock solid, minimal buybacks, dividend is variable so no payout when losing money $55/sh BV (~$50 TBV) vs. $63 pre-market = 1.15x P/B https://t.co/Xx0kmu7j66

Colin King

CALM $3.2B

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

$MAMA is probably at the most attractive valuation since 3 years ago. And right as they are executing super well. This will be a couple billon dollar company in a few years.

Deep Sail Capital

MAMA $608M

𝕏 @DOMOCAPITAL

$ALTO StoneX initiates with a Buy rating and $7 price target: https://t.co/AnUoeGvT6X

DOMO Capital Management, LLC

ALTO $289M

💥Yield!💥

PETITION BYND $146M

Beyond Meat’s Q2 2026 revenue fell 8.2% as U.S. retail and foodservice volumes declined, while a flatter, not inverted, Treasury curve weakens the recession signal.

Industrials

𝕏 @convequity

Anthropic's biggest near-term threat isn't the S-1 or AI-safety language. It's competition, especially an OpenAI price war. The S-1 is public, and the timing lines up with OpenAI DevDay. My read is that it isn't a coincidence. That's my read, not something either company has said. What surprised me more came out of DevDay: OpenAI is ending its price war. Here's what that means in practice. OpenAI…

Convequity

SPCX $2T

𝕏 @convequity

$SPCX's Starship reached orbit and delivered cargo. The gigawatts still depend on how often it flies. We have been building the orbital-compute case with three key inputs: kilowatts per ton, tons per flight, and flights per year. 1) Ship 41 reached orbit, about 275 km, and released all 26 Starlink V3 satellites. They are in service. Until this flight Starship had only made short hops and come…

Convequity

SPCX $2T

Research Roundup Vol. LIV

Monte Independent Investment Research AAON $7B KNF $2.9B

Research Roundup covers AAON's data-center cooling ramp, Knife River's margin recovery, ChronoScale's Microsoft-backed neocloud buildout and Bitdeer's shift from bitcoin mining to AI hosting.

𝕏 @irbezek

Since multiple people have pinged me this. Cancun is not Tulum. They are 100km apart. The prior socialist government built the Tulum airport in part to screw with us $ASR Cancun concession holders. We want Tulum to fail. Cancun hotel occupancy remains in the mid-50s. https://t.co/4hb7GRGGZO

Ian Bezek

ASR $6.7B

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

Short Report Review: $EQPT - Blue Orca @blueorcainvest https://t.co/YigE14K6Rw

Deep Sail Capital

EQPT $4.7B

Materials

POSCO Holdings: A Resource Conglomerate Still Priced Like A Distressed Steel Mill

Seeking Alpha PKX $17B

POSCO Holdings trades at a 78.6% P/B discount as lithium, gas and trading profits reshape the steelmaker, while capex and lithium prices remain risks.

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

Obvious shitcos: $RR $ASPI $TMC $GLND $ALOY $EOSE

A Capital

ASPI $389M

Real Estate

𝕏 @KEDM_COM

American Assets Trust’s $AAT Chairman Rady continues to buy shares, now already owning 38% of s/o. The 13D also mentions that he may ‘discuss or encourage extraordinary transactions - including mergers, take‑private deals, asset sales, recapitalizations or board/management changes.’

KEDM.com

AAT $1.3B

Investor letters

QuantStreet Capital · July 2026

August 2026 Update