Daily recap, Tuesday, October 13

Tuesday October 13th, 64 stock ideas

Most viewed

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications outlook through 2030.

Rollins (ROL), Verisure (VSURE), and the cost of standing still (Part 2, Verisure)

Best Anchor Stocks ROL $16B

Verisure’s 6.38 million monitored-alarm subscribers generate 90% recurring revenue, while its disclosed acquisition costs and 6%-8% churn quantify the cost of replacing customers.

Technology and AI

𝕏  @aleabitoreddit

@AllTheWayRay8 I have positions in Agility! I do want to see US humanoid programs succeed, even if they’re behind Unitree and others now. So I have a personal preference in funding US players over foreign programs. But $NVDA and $AMZN are heavily backing Agility so that’s always positive

Serenity

NVDA $5.5T

Nvidia’s Investor Meeting

P Equity Research NVDA $5.5T

Nvidia’s investor meeting features CFO Colette Kress and IR and Strategic Finance VP Toshiya Hari.

𝕏  @ParadisLabs

Memory fundamentals are still very strong (stronger than Q1). $MU CEO: - "We expect memory and storage supply demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026." - "We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance." Back in July, $NVDA supply commitments rocketed from $119B -> $279B which was "primarily related to the procurement of…

Paradis

NVDA $5.5T

𝕏  @negligible_cap

$MU and $NVDA are expected to contribute 36% of total Q3 EPS growth for the S&P500 per CitSec https://t.co/RoSBtF6bMH

Negligible Capital

NVDA $5.5T

𝕏  @aleabitoreddit

Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI. $NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up. New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that: - In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a…

Serenity

NVDA $5.5T

Apple and LG, The House For Everyone Else, Agent Standards and Amazon

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. AAPL $5T AMZN $2.7T

Apple is leaning on partner integration for the smart home, while Amazon faces strategic choices around AI agents.

Broadcom: The More Google Designs, The More It May Need Hock Tan

Seeking Alpha AVGO $1.7T

Broadcom's AI semiconductor growth rests on custom-chip partnerships and advanced packaging as Google, OpenAI and Meta demand larger silicon. AVGO targets 66% operating margins despite higher memory content.

Micron: My DCF And Valuation Multiple Analysis Confirm It Is Still Cheap

Seeking Alpha MU $1.2T

Expert Call | Memory Research — DRAM/NAND Supply Contraction and Price Increases, HBM Capacity Crowding-Out, LTA Upgrades, and Supplier Customer-Tiering Strategies

P Equity Research MU $1.2T SNDK $233B

DRAM and NAND supply cuts, HBM capacity expansion and revamped LTAs are reshaping memory pricing, customer allocation and Chinese cloud demand through 2026.

OCP Day One: AMD CEO Sees Strong Demand for AI Inference and CPUs

Key Context by Tae Kim AMD $959B

AMD CEO Lisa Su says demand for AI inference and CPUs continues to rise as computing capacity becomes more valuable.

🎙️ The Compute 100: Startups vs. Incumbents in Semis, Intel Foundry, Physical AI, and more

Chipstrat INTC $536B

Austin Lyons discusses Intel Foundry, advanced packaging, AI inference, physical AI and data center architecture on The Compute 100.

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Lam Research Corporation: Strong FY27 Setup Makes It A Solid Bet Ahead Of Q1

Seeking Alpha LRCX $371B

Lam Research posted record Q4 FY26 revenue of $6.72 billion, up nearly 30%, as AI chip investment and process complexity lift demand for etch and deposition equipment.

Dell's Tailwinds

Chipstrat DELL $367B

Dell booked $131.7B of AI server orders in four quarters and held a $95B backlog as enterprise AI demand accelerates.

Expert Call | HBF Architecture, Applications and Technical Milestones

P Equity Research SNDK $233B

HBF is being positioned as a high-capacity inference-memory tier alongside HBM, with SanDisk, SK Hynix, Kioxia and Samsung pursuing architectures for data centers and edge AI.

Expert Call | HDDs - Supply, LTAs, Toshiba Expansion

P Equity Research STX $178B WDC $142B

Toshiba’s planned fiscal 2027 HDD capacity doubling tests supply, hyperscaler LTAs and AI data-center storage demand against Seagate and Western Digital.

Expert Call | Nebius

P Equity Research NBIS $60B

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers taking one to two years and cloud margins exceeding bare metal.

Consumer Discretionary

𝕏  @convequity

We think Amazon ($AMZN) blocks Meta's ($META) Muse shopping agent partly to protect its advertising business, while Shopify ($SHOP) welcomes it to earn payment fees. Amazon cites authorization and security concerns. We also see an advertising business to protect. Amazon earned $68.6 billion in advertising revenue in 2025, including payments from sellers to place their products prominently in…

Convequity

AMZN $2.7T

𝕏  @HaydenCapital

On Shopee VIP. Once customers sign up, they stop comparison shopping + avg spend increases 5x (granted, there's bias, as power users sign up first). VIP members already make up >25% of GMV - think it's a good ROI on capital, by locking up their customer base / reducing churn, and in turn increasing customer LTV. h/t @farrer36am. $SE https://t.co/CHf0V47EjJ

Fred Liu

SE $59B

𝕏  @HaydenCapital

On Shopee VIP. Once customers sign up, they stop comparison shopping + spend increases 5x. VIP members already make up >25% of GMV - think it's a good ROI on capital, by locking up their customer base / reducing churn, and in turn increasing customer LTV. h/t @farrer36am. $SE https://t.co/CHf0V47EjJ

Fred Liu

SE $59B

𝕏  @AsifSuria

Looks like Nike $NKE isn't able to just do it anymore. It will need a significant amount of energy and work to regain its place in stores. I remember reading in Phil Knight's Shoe Dog book that his coach Bill Bowerman felt that runners only had a limited number of all-out races in their legs. I think they were referring to the legendary runner Prefontaine who unfortunately died in a car crash…

Asif Suria

NKE $51B

PATTERN GROUP INC (PTRN): Short

Value Investors Club written July 15th PTRN $3B

Pattern Group is a fragile consumer business targeted on the short side.

Financials

𝕏  @BrokenMoats

Interesting to see $V up 9 days in a row (nearly funtrun the Chinese announcement). While a positive, it will be years before it plays out (if China follows through down the line, and gets them in the same place AXP and MA already were + the domestic competition). But thats incremental and down the road at best the focus though should be the support the administration (trump recently, and JD…

Broken Moats

V $731B

𝕏  @AsifSuria

@TSOH_Investing Part of that was providing exit liquidity to Blackstone $BX But yes, as is often the case, the buybacks were ill-timed and a use of precious capital.

Asif Suria

BX $86B

𝕏  @AsifSuria

Here is what I wrote about Blackstone's $BX involvement with Bumble $BMBL, the potential deal situation and their recent debt refinancing: https://t.co/wVQYKuaBtx

Asif Suria

BX $86B

Virtu Financial: A Buy The Dip Moment For Market Maker With Proven Durability (Rating Upgrade)

Seeking Alpha VIRT $8.7B

Virtu Financial’s resilient trading income, double-digit EPS growth forecasts and forward-earnings valuation support an upgrade despite leverage and a BB- credit rating.

𝕏  @DOMOCAPITAL

I'm not publicly telling people that $FNMA and $FMCC are safe investments and then telling them I sold after the fact. I'm not charging people for ideas like the above. Any prospective client can request my audited performance and it'll be provided with the interaction memorialized for request and review by auditors.

DOMO Capital Management, LLC

FNMA $4B

Energy

𝕏  @BarbarianCap

BP to set out new strategy after windfall year $BP https://t.co/rcdaTDuGAB

Barbarian Capital

BP $123B

𝕏  @AsifSuria

The situation reminds me of Tidewater $TDW (without the flip-flopper angle). I recently exited Tidewater from the model portfolio and my personal portfolio: https://t.co/6wmo91Ep9E

Asif Suria

TDW $4.2B

𝕏  @AsifSuria

The CEO was also buying shares last month but we prefer buying by directors and that is why Tor Olav Troim's purchases were more interesting. From our Insider Weekends article about $BORR: https://t.co/RQlcc0qJqa

Asif Suria

BORR $1.4B

𝕏  @AsifSuria

Another large insider purchase by a director of Borr Drilling $BORR filed today (yesterday was a holiday for the SEC and so no Form 4 filings). This is his largest single day insider purchase coming in at $11.84 million. We had been watching him buy consistently for several weeks and decided to dive into the company in an Insider Weekends article last Sunday. As we did our research, we realized…

Asif Suria

BORR $1.4B

SED Energy: The 40% Dividend. Signal or Noise?

Cannibal Stocks SBDXF $497M

SED Energy's proposed Ventura merger projects a 22% to 40% dividend yield, but idle tender barges, debt and repayments materially reduce distributable cash flow.

Healthcare

𝕏  @BarbarianCap

J&J Is Leaning Toward Spinning Out Its Hips-And-Knees Business $JNJ https://t.co/hWRgg4CbBg

Barbarian Capital

JNJ $600B

𝕏  @InvestSpecial

Another odd-lot split-off worked out for SSI subs. $MDT offer expired at the max exchange ratio, with MMED shares expected this week. Hedged odd lots from write-up levels should net ~$600 after borrow fees and dividends. Full pitch below 👇 https://t.co/obUHH77Ddq

Dalius - Special Sits

MDT $112B

𝕏  @stockgutter

let's see how much this reads through to $MRNA. Unfortunately, its yet another confirmation that while mRNA cancer vax is promising the path will be choppy and we have many years if not decades to go. https://t.co/UW3f5YtHWW

MRNA $79B

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Trade Ideas Flow UTHR $24B LQDA $2.4B

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a royalty remedy in play.

BridgeBio: Maintaining 'Strong Buy' Additional Encaleret Data ADH1 And Three Expected FDA Reviews

Seeking Alpha BBIO $13B

BridgeBio Pharma reported Q2 revenue of $243.7 million and has three Priority Review NDAs, while $1 billion in convertible preferred financing funds planned launches.

𝕏  @kevin__mak

$ABVX Interesting data coming from S&P Markit* (daily short interest based on institutional lending data). Looks like someone established a large position over the past 10 days or so, about 2mm shares or $200M. Given people generally don't like to have single name short exposure over 1-2% of their book (often people size shorts as like ~50 bps), this would be part of a really big book or a really…

Kevin Mak

ABVX $7.6B

Cabaletta Bio: 40% Sell-Off Creates An Opportunity Despite Cash Concerns

Seeking Alpha CABA $303M

Cabaletta Bio's 40% sell-off leaves CABA below its $2.41 pipeline value ahead of pivotal rese-cel autoimmune data in 2027, despite dilution and single-asset risk.

Communication Services

𝕏  @blondesnmoney

The reason crypto is dead is because multiple $4 Trillion US-listed equities exhibit the intraday tendencies of a crypto rug $GOOGL https://t.co/LUo0SvAsgV

Cluseau Investments

GOOGL $4.3T

𝕏  @convequity

$AVGO's Hock Tan is right that capital is now the constraint on AI, and that is healthy. The $60bn banks are placing for Anthropic's lease of $GOOGL's TPUs shows how it gets eased: by moving risk, not reducing it. We read his two remarks as cause and effect: tokens are not yet earning a return, so capital is expensive. That brake stops a buildout outrunning its returns. The $42bn senior slice…

Convequity

GOOGL $4.3T

𝕏  @OddDiligence

$META $GOOGL pretty funny to see $2T company talk trash and then delete their post after proven wrong - very bubbly behavior Imagine Lisa Su talking shit on X to Jensen about GPUs And @alexandr_wang account is 100% run by Meta's marketing team https://t.co/7ao8ilXLEa

Odd Diligence

GOOGL $4.3T

𝕏  @aleabitoreddit

Hyperscalers are the ones ultimately funding the AI buildout. As seen with $AMZN to $GOOGL earnings commentary, the ROI is seen as wildly attractive. Even $MSFT said they’d be FCF positive during the buildout period. I was more worried about counterparty risk until OpenAI went out and raised like $168B recently.

Serenity

GOOGL $4.3T

CarGurus ($CARG): The Auto Trader of America, Priced Like a Used Car

Substack von Philipp CARG $2.6B

CarGurus, the largest U.S. auto-shopping marketplace, trades near $29 despite roughly $1 billion in expected revenue, $300 million in free cash flow and 30% share repurchases since 2022.

An Interview with Katie Harbath About Disrupting Politics at Facebook

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. FB

Katie Harbath discusses Facebook’s role in elections and political disruption during the 2010s, drawing on her book Disrupting Politics.

Consumer Staples

Altria: The Rally Looks Ahead Of Underlying Earnings Growth

Seeking Alpha MO $119B

Altria’s EPS gains rely on tax refunds and discount brands while Marlboro growth lags. Strong free cash flow supports the dividend, but weak underlying profits leave shares above $63.80 fair value.

𝕏  @BarbarianCap

Kimberly-Clark, Kenvue Win Conditional EU Approval for $40 Billion Tie-Up $KMB $KVUE https://t.co/oN9tXYAkTE

Barbarian Capital

KVUE $34B

𝕏  @BarbarianCap

Albertsons Pulls Full-Year Guidance, Plans Business Review $ACI https://t.co/FkxxQbgEQt

Barbarian Capital

ACI $6.3B

𝕏  @finphysnerd

$FIZZ seems like an attractive short. Classic staple juicing price into slowing volumes, meanwhile they're getting attacked by competition. They trade at around 17x earnings for some reason when a lot of better looking staples trade at low teens.

Myles

FIZZ $2.9B

Greencore Group PLC (GNC LN): Long

Value Investors Club written July 15th GNCGF $2.8B

Greencore is the UK’s leading fresh prepared food producer, pitched as undervalued with potential to nearly double within 12–24 months.

𝕏  @valuedontlie

$NOMD held their first investor day in ~6 years... dedicated an entire slide to the insane amount of recent insider buying + incentive comp upside https://t.co/B3mpLfE9Q9

Colin King

NOMD $1.6B

MGP Ingredients (MGPI) - The Hangover After the Whiskey Boom

Dismissed & Asset-Backed MGPI $293M

MGP Ingredients trades at 0.74 times tangible book after whiskey oversupply drove sales declines and more than $400 million of impairments.

Industrials

𝕏  @BarbarianCap

United Airlines is making it harder to reach its top frequent flyer status in 2027 $UAL https://t.co/l8mOORDQMu

Barbarian Capital

UAL $34B

𝕏  @StableBread

See the 10-Q’s explanation of the cash flow increase here: https://t.co/vF0KmSu93K Continue reading here for how $BWXT’s $1.25B convertible note affects dilution: https://t.co/bPIYua98gd

Fajasy

BWXT $13B

𝕏  @StableBread

How much of the $8.4B backlog at BWX Technologies $BWXT turns into revenue by the end of 2027? $BWXT expects to recognize 55% of the $8.4B backlog, or ~$4.6B, by the end of 2027. Another $1.4B of unexercised contract options sit outside the backlog, with $900M expected to be awarded in 2030 and $500M in 2035. Three items drive $BWXT’s quarterly FCF swings: 1) Payables: Higher accounts payable…

Fajasy

BWXT $13B

𝕏  @irbezek

@POVMexico Tulum Airport was only built in 2024 as an AMLO pet project, minimal market demand. The hippies can go back to flying through Cancun Airport as they should. $asr

Ian Bezek

ASR $6.6B

Babcock & Wilcox (BW): Short

Value Investors Club written July 15th BW $748M

Babcock & Wilcox is priced for AI power demand despite a one-time related-party project, with FY2028 EBITDA 35% below consensus implying 45% downside.