Daily recap, Tuesday, September 22

Tuesday September 22nd

Technology and AI

𝕏 @convequity

Three planar generations of Kirin added 150 MHz in total. The first folded one added 350 MHz in a single step, on the same non-EUV process. How Huawei did it, and why it matters for $NVDA, $AVGO and the Western toolmakers. https://t.co/pzpPjCUIJ7

Convequity

NVDA $5.5T

𝕏 @partners_road

Some huge options trades (tech, naturally) today. Over a billion of premium paid and a lot of vega as well ($20M+). $AMD, $AAPL, $AVGO and $DELL. All January ‘28.

RiverRoadPartners

AAPL $5T

𝕏 @TheBenSchmark

Stacy Rasgon: no sign of AI demand slowdown. $AVGO line of sight for strong growth even in constrained environment and “extremely cheap” https://t.co/PEa2PqhXFP

JabroniCoin.USD

AVGO $1.7T

Applied Materials: Opportunity Is Brewing Again (Rating Upgrade)

Seeking Alpha AMAT $375B

Applied Materials' AI-driven demand lifted Q3 revenue 25%, with Q4 guidance implying 51% growth and further margin expansion.

Analog Semiconductor Smorgasbord, Feat. TXN, ON, VSH

Cestrian Capital Research. TXN $246B ON $27B

Texas Instruments, ON Semiconductor and Vishay are rated Accumulate on rising robotics demand for analog, power and discrete chips after a sector selloff.

CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets CRWV $47B

CoreWeave funds GPU data-center expansion with debt backed by $104 billion in contracted revenue, while GPU cloud rentals generate roughly 99% of sales.

Microchip: Growth Accelerates, Margins Soar

Seeking Alpha MCHP $40B

Microchip’s data-center revenue surged 97.8% year over year as Q1 FY2027 gross margin reached 63.2%, with Q2 guidance of 66% to 67%.

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

I echo these thoughts on $CRDO. https://t.co/GUUJOngRvK

Deep Sail Capital

CRDO $33B

Credo Technology: New Position in My Private Portfolio

Hated Moats CRDO $33B

Credo Technology was added at $170.54 after a 40% selloff, backed by its high-speed AECs and optical connectivity for AI data centers.

Cellebrite (CLBT) Management Meeting: The Road Ahead

Aurelion Research CLBT $2.9B

Cellebrite converts more than 110% of EBITDA into free cash flow and trades at 12.5 times free cash flow, with management targeting 15% or more annual earnings growth.

Consumer Discretionary

𝕏 @MaiusPartners

Love it or hate it, but the $GNRC / $AMZN deal is an extremely bearish read-through for the legacy backup power suppliers $CMI / $CAT. The equivalent would be $GM coming to China and taking 20% of the market overnight from BYD. https://t.co/loOU0ZaB7V

Maius

AMZN $2.7T

McDonald's Stock Selloff Is Hiding An Even Better Setup

Seeking Alpha MCD $176B

McDonald’s trades at $248 versus a $309.29 intrinsic-value estimate as its U.S. value-strategy reset targets traffic, digital offers and franchisee alignment.

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

AutoZone Expects Growth to Accelerate This Fiscal Year $AZO https://t.co/FYkgVNrID5

Barbarian Capital

AZO $47B

𝕏 @leevalueroach

This is why I think Ryan Cohen put up $46 million dollars into $GME over the past few weeks along with other large insider buys. Pokemon card sales reached an all time high in August. Then in September it was Pokemon's 30th anniversary. It was the biggest coordinated event for Pokemon cards in history. Stores were sold out. Lines all over. GameStop probably made a killing. And this anniversary…

Lee Roach

GME $12B

𝕏 @leevalueroach

What do you think the unit economics to make a magic the gathering card is and what the markup is? What happens when you capture the entire retail margin by in housing. What happens when you sell the dumb toy biz? What happens when you stop allocations of MTG from everyone else and funnel to $GME shelves? How does store traffic improve?

Lee Roach

GME $12B

I Tested Three Cannibals Against Dillard’s. I Bought Two. (CROX, CNX, GPI)

Cannibal Stocks CROX $5.9B CNX $4.9B

Crocs, CNX and Group 1 are tested against Dillard’s buyback-driven share-count reduction, with Group 1 leading and CNX’s convertible notes reversing part of its progress.

Who Really Runs Crocs? The Autopsy.

Cannibal Stocks CROX $5.9B

Crocs CEO Andrew Rees turned around the core brand, then borrowed $2 billion for HEYDUDE, whose $737 million write-down followed wholesale overstocking and missed revenue targets.

Li Lu Bought Crocs. Follow the Free Cash Flow (CROX)

Cannibal Stocks CROX $5.9B

Crocs drew Li Lu’s investment after generating $660 million of 2025 free cash flow, despite the HEYDUDE write-off, tariff pressure and declining sales at the acquired brand.

TRIPADVISOR INC (TRIP): Long

Value Investors Club written June 24th TRIP $1B

Tripadvisor (TRIP) is presented as a long idea.

Financials

𝕏 @TheBenSchmark

SocGen really seems like the Citi of Europe. $GLE $C AI-driven cost reduction, and ROTE acceleration? Or is the CH Robinson of banks? https://t.co/gNqcJVvRFc https://t.co/ui4wQ2uf8Z

JabroniCoin.USD

C $222B

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

mentioned: $SCHW $LPLA $RJF $AMP $JPM $BAC $BKNG Meta’s Muse Comes for Financial Stocks https://t.co/dqxVL8KJ2U

Barbarian Capital

SCHW $182B

𝕏 @negligible_cap

Lots of financials like insurance brokers, banks, retail brokerages getting smoked on Muse / agentic concerns / cash sweeps / wealth mgmt? $SCHW, $LPLA, $RJF all getting crushed along with all of insurance Looks like sell first, think later is back https://t.co/pvWN2aytg3

Negligible Capital

SCHW $182B

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

Know fins are selling off today, but the $JEF underperformance since Radiant World feels like perception <> reality. We literally just saw this movie with First Brands: scary headline, fears of a much bigger balance-sheet problem, then the actual exposure comes into focus. Fool me once…

A Capital

JEF $11B

$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital

Yet Another Value Podcast FOUR $3.3B

Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant additions.

Emeth Value Capital’s Andrew Carreon on Shift4 ($FOUR)

Yet Another Value Blog FOUR $3.3B

Shift4 trades at 6.5 times EBITDA despite 11% organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases reaching a $400 million run rate as restaurant deployments expand.

Energy

The Offshore Message From Oslo

Cannibal Stocks RIG $6.2B

Offshore drillers have secured 105 rig-years by September, 42% above all of 2025, as national oil companies lock up long-term capacity.

Atlas Energy Solutions: The Frac Sand Cycle Is Turning, And Power Is In Tow

Seeking Alpha AESI $1.7B

Atlas Energy Solutions expects proppant price recovery and a 2GW power business by 2030 to lift EBITDA, alongside low-cost Permian sand, logistics and autonomous trucking.

Healthcare

UnitedHealth: Margin Recovery And Earnings Growth Support Further Upside

Seeking Alpha UNH $338B

UnitedHealth’s Q2 revenue reached $112 billion and adjusted EPS $6.38 as UnitedHealthcare and Optum Health margins recovered through cost controls and contract resets.

Abbott: Quality Remains, But Exact Sciences Has Raised The Bar For Buy

Seeking Alpha ABT $177B

Abbott’s Exact Sciences acquisition raises leverage, leaving Medical Devices’ 8% growth and 33.9% margin to carry cash flow until meaningful deleveraging arrives.

𝕏 @valuedontlie

$MDT $MMED exchange offer an interesting special sit… Own shares of MDT and swap for MMED at 7% discount Odd lot provision for 99 shares held too High enough share price to be worthwhile ($90+ MDT price works out to $600+ profit in a few weeks time)

Colin King

MDT $119B

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Communication Services

Meta's Muse Could be Big Win for Innodata

Hunterbrook META $1.7T INOD $2.1B

Innodata's new Meta contract for long-horizon agent personalization ties the data company to Meta's Muse AI assistant, despite Meta's Scale AI investment.

𝕏 @negligible_cap

One of the better parts about Muse taking off like this for $META is that Watermelon can now be a total flop and no one will care. The bar has now been essentially removed. Who cares if $META can’t make a frontier coding model anymore if they win consumer? If Watermelon does exceed expectations, that’s pretty much just house money

Negligible Capital

META $1.7T

Meta’s Muse Is No Sure Thing

Key Context by Tae Kim META $1.7T

Meta’s Muse AI agent drove an 11% share surge, but OpenAI, Google and Apple could erode its early consumer lead. Morgan Stanley estimates every 100 million users adds $1 billion in revenue.

𝕏 @BlueDuckCap

$DIS should be down more, imho. "Then, the AI agent is supposed to help execute those tasks in the background, à la haggling over the phone with insurance companies for better deals, unsubscribing from that streaming service you never use, and sifting through the web for discounts."

BDC

DIS $177B

Reddit's Valuation Is A Compelling Opportunity: Upgrading To Strong Buy

Seeking Alpha RDDT $29B

Reddit’s subreddit-driven communities support targeted advertising, and its 0.3 PEG ratio makes RDDT undervalued, according to the upgrade to Strong Buy.

𝕏 @TidefallCapital

@KoyfinCharts $CHTR buybacks

Trevor Scott

CHTR $15B

𝕏 @valuedontlie

$ZD doing well lately, been thinking about closing out my position but wondering if something’s up… Hmm… https://t.co/ytvQSD6x7y

Colin King

ZD $2B

Bumble, 2x Owner’s Earnings. Sentiment is abysmal, the founder is back. The stock could easily be a multibagger.

Calvin Blissett BMBL $376M

Bumble trades at roughly 2x owner’s earnings and 4.76x enterprise value, with Whitney Wolfe Herd’s return central to a rerating case.

A special situation bet on the power of incentives with 10x upside in a mandated year timeframe.

Calvin Blissett BBGI $33M

Beasley Broadcast Group's equity hinges on repaying or arranging sales for roughly $115.5 million of debt by September 2027, before PIK notes can dilute common shareholders.

Consumer Staples

𝕏 @valuedontlie

$TPB starting to round trip here... way off its early 2026 highs haven't been following this since mid-2025, help me catch up on what's happening lately? https://t.co/HcsiMJXkuq

Colin King

TPB $1.2B

𝕏 @IdeaBrunchEmail

Idea Brunch with David Polansky and Tim Delaney of Immersion Investments David and Tim break down their small-cap-focused research process and share commentary on $MAMA $SRTA and $RDVT Enjoy! https://t.co/zWh7qAOCoO

Idea Brunch

MAMA $636M

ARKO. 3x Owner’s Earnings multiple, 21% ROCE, Founders involved and large shareholders, Stake in a public company>market cap. Superb Capital Allocators

Calvin Blissett ARKO $482M

ARKO trades at 3 times estimated 2025 owner’s earnings, while its 73.6% APC stake exceeds its $473 million market cap. Dealerization shifts 500-plus convenience stores to wholesale fuel supply.

𝕏 @KEDM_COM

Fitlife $FTLF insiders are buying the dip. The shares are down over 50% over the past few months, mainly on poor earnings. But taking a step back, Fitlife has been executing on its strategy. Good, accretive acquisitions, decent organic growth, and a continued push to online. https://t.co/NeblRc2KhF

KEDM.com

FTLF $90M

Industrials

Copart's Return To Growth Starts Now: Adair's $1.9B Bet On ACV Auctions

Seeking Alpha CPRT $27B ACVA $1.8B

Copart’s $1.9 billion ACV Auctions acquisition targets renewed growth, with EPS accretion expected by fiscal 2028 as insurance normalization and total-loss frequency support salvage auctions.

Southwest Airlines: A $900 Million Fuel Bill Is Hiding A Different Company

Seeking Alpha LUV $20B

Southwest Airlines grew adjusted unit revenue 20% on flat capacity and operating income 27% despite a $900 million fuel headwind, driven by fare ladders and ancillary products.

𝕏 @finphysnerd

$LDOS looks interesting to me. They provide a variety of government services including healthcare, intelligence, defence and homeland security stuff. Currently overearning due to a VA healthcare contract that will be renegotiated lower going into 2027. The market has sold them

Myles

LDOS $16B

𝕏 @LaughingH20Cap

@310Value reminder that $APG pfd A stock, by which the holders get paid hedge fund-like incentive comp based on year end share price, will be converted at year end. Management/board are well incentivized to do everything they can to juice the stock price into year end.

Laughing Water Capital

APG $16B

Undercovered Dozen: Rithm Capital, Sterling Infrastructure, Corning And More

Seeking Alpha STRL $16B RITM $5.3B

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXVIII

Monte Independent Investment Research FLY $3.6B

Firefly Aerospace grew backlog to $1.5 billion, won two 2028 lunar missions and acquired Space-ng for autonomous navigation across its Blue Ghost and Elytra spacecraft.

𝕏 @finphysnerd

@HatfieldCapital @RealHerbHoover From what I've read $MMS has some exposure to va healthcare repricing as well. More importantly the rest of the business is lower quality. No defence/intelligence exposure, some segments overearning (natural disaster work and soft services volumes). Still looks cheap.

Myles

MMS $3B

𝕏 @majgeoinvesting

Here’s a video from $RFIL website on how their DAC (direct air cooling) product works in large enclosures. In theory, $PSIX might be an interesting channel partner if they have an “at the edge” enclosure presence. DAC is not a hyperscaler solution, but the “edge”is heating up. https://t.co/h8EScDrBlo

Maj Soueidan

PSIX $1.1B

Materials

𝕏 @valuedontlie

Imminent spin-off activity coming: • $CTVA → $VYLR set for Oct 1 • $MOD → $THRM (RMT) set for Oct 1 Behind that we have: • $KBR investor day Nov '26 → spin early '27 • $FLEX investor day Nov '26 → spin early '27 • $GPC investor day Dec '26 → spin early '27

Colin King

CTVA $54B

A2Gold: Research Note

Atrium Research - Equity Research KGC $34B

A2Gold’s first Taylor drill holes returned 20.96 g/t AuEq over 1.5m and 209.4 g/t silver over 10.7m, alongside 141.10 g/t gold at Eastside’s Castle target.

𝕏 @stockgutter

@1035_Capital appreciate the response. I am long $LODE rn but think the company needs to prove it will not continue to dilute.