Laughing Water Capital on X
@snack8812 @CalgaryLeveen Hi - could you explain why you think the "admin in office" is against $NN? Is this just because of the OIRA delay? Or are there other reasons? TYIA
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Broken Moats on X
Intensity and rapidness of recent moves is worth acknowledging. Not sure what to make of it. I understand the concept of oil/rates lower improving the backdrop for consumer discretionary but its not as if oil had not been trending lower for weeks, the deal always seemed more priced in versus priced out of markets *and china and us, Japan heavily released reserves to temper oil - so outside front month price movement - oil has been massaged lower for quite some time* Trying to understand what sets off names besides the incremental delta of lower rates.oil to send retail oriented names up 30-50% in a week or two? $ELF $CAVA $SHAK etc and some of these reported weak sales with lowered outlooks. Shak as recently as <2 weeks ago $MGNI - heavy insider selling past few days, stock is 30%+ in short time frame ELF $48-$70 in basically a week CAVA - $70-$92 in a few days -- $bros, shak similar moves $BIRK - pure short squeeze off float dynamics, but stock basically up 60% in a few weeks. Certainly a different market, but not sure its healthy to either see these names artificial pinned down in relation to the rest of the market narrative or react to slight incremental news with the some of the biggest runs in each individual companies entire trading history.....
Weekend Digest #346 (AVAL, SpaceX QQQ & Passive Indexing, CBOE Vs. Kalshi)
Grupo Aval has doubled from entry, with further upside tied to Colombia’s new government.
Broken Moats on X
what part of the cycle is it when CAVA starts going up 30% in a week on no news? Screwworm, savings rate declines, ridiculous valuation, and unwanted then a 30% snap in 3 days? Bizarre market moves. $TGT, the private credit exposed names like $ARES, etc all similar relentless moves from late in the week
Brian McGough on X
#Quad4 looming in June. To be clear, Quad4 is horrible for retail stocks — with the only exception being housing-linked retail like $RH $FND $HD etc…
Red Dog Capital on X
Bubble Spidey sense is starting to tingle pretty hard here! $GOOG and $META secondaries, silly SpaceX IPO valuation, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs coming. Who is going to soak up all of this incremental equity supply? If investors start to balk, the music stops pretty quickly!
Under The Hood, Universal Health Services - $UHS
Universal Health Services faces a $432 million–$480 million annual Medicaid supplemental-payment hit by 2032, offset by behavioral-health…
Portfolio Update May 2026
Portfolio update: sold Nomad Foods, trimmed Copart, added Pool Corp and Floor & Decor, and bought Tractor Supply as the portfolio trails…
Bubbles, a UK Compounder & Ferrari’s Future
Jeremy Grantham says AI has interrupted a bear market and predicts a 50% market decline, drawing on GMO’s study of 27 bubbles.
Weekend Digest #345 (Colombia Election, AUNA, BRKR, China & EM Risk)
Weekend Digest #345 previews Colombia’s presidential vote, tracks AUNA’s earnings momentum and Bruker’s recovery, and weighs China risk…
Inter, Nu, MercadoLibre Earnings & Outlook + LatAm Political Considerations
Inter, Nu and MercadoLibre reported 38%, 53% and 51% revenue growth, respectively, as Latin American political and macro risks drove a…
Portfolio Update April 2026
Portfolio update sells Amazon, adds Floor & Decor, and projects 6.5% annual market returns, with a base case of negative 0.89% from…
Under The Hood, HCA Healthcare - $HCA
HCA Healthcare generated $75.6 billion of 2025 revenue and an 18.9% ROIC, pairing hospital-market scale with expanding margins and lower…
Our Q1 2026 Letter & Look Ahead: Oil, Iran, OXY & PTON
Open Square Capital’s Q1 2026 letter discusses the oil market, Iran, Occidental Petroleum and Peloton.
Defying the Surveys
PNC CEO Bill Demchak says consumer spending, savings, activity and loan growth contradict record-low University of Michigan consumer…
Updates: Judges Scientific, Jet2, XPEL (JDG, JET2, XPEL)
Judges Scientific reported 6% organic revenue growth, but US sales fell 22%; NIH funding release and a Geotek coring expedition are its key…
Doubling Down on Iran and OXY
Occidental Petroleum is positioned for oil above $80, with a prolonged Iran conflict and Gulf supply shut-ins pushing prices into triple…
Multiples Capital on X
I recently sat down with @StockJabber at @IdeaBrunchEmail to discuss the strategy behind Multiples Capital's outperformance in 2025. The full interview is behind a paywall, but here are 4 core themes we discussed: 1/ The Multi-Asset Edge While many leaned on the "Magnificent 7," we found alpha in global de-dollarization and the massive electricity demands of AI data centers. This approach delivered a 3.15 Sharpe Ratio—with roughly half the turbulence of the S&P 500. 2/ Garrett Motion ($GTX) Update Since my last feature, $GTX has surged ~170%. We discussed the "perfect storm" of index inclusion and aggressive capital allocation that drove this run, and why the "EV-only" fear proved to be premature. 3/ AI Disruption vs. Mispricing The market is correctly identifying "AI Losers" in SaaS, but it’s applying that same anxiety with broad stroke. We broke down why Expedia ($EXPE) is a prime example of this mispricing, trading at a 12%+ FCF yield despite its essential role in the global travel ecosystem and it's growing B2B setment. 4/ My Favorite "Tokenization" Play We closed with a deep dive into the digitalization of finance. I shared my top idea for playing the tokenization trend, a company currently acting as the "digital infrastructure provider" for institutions and growing it's subscription and service revenues. Read the full deep dive here: https://t.co/kuRyJtSPMh Note: As this is premium content, I cannot share the PDF on a open platform. However, if you’d like to join my quarterly investor letter distribution list to see how we are positioning for the "Broadening Trade" in 2026, please send a DM.
The Great Rotation: Long Live the Old Economy — Weekly Treasure Hunt #04
Vaca Muerta’s $36–45-per-barrel breakevens, Milei reforms and $17 billion infrastructure buildout underpin the bullish case for Vista…
Multiples Capital on X
Thinking more about this, the timing feels increasingly closer: The market concentration is extreme: Mag 7 + $AVGO sits at a combined market cap of $18 Trillion. Contrast that with the entire Mid/Small-Cap universe: S&P 400 (Mid): $3T $MDY S&P 600 (Small): $1.4T $IJR Russell 2000: $2.8T $IWM A 10% shift in allocation ($1.8T) from Big Tech could easily double the market cap of these mid/small-cap indexes. It's not a new insight, but with growing AI bubble nervousness in market participants and rising FED rate cut expectations extending into 2026, the potential for this capital shift is getting compelling. #GreatRotation #SmallCaps #MidCaps #MarketTiming
Rates, jobs, and apartments - oh my!
US multifamily REITs face divergent outcomes as jobs and interest rates shape rents, development returns and M&A prospects.
Multiples Capital on X
Foreign Central bank gold holdings go above US Treasuries first time since 1996. $GLD https://t.co/QmZhXchEvA
Multiples Capital on X
$SPY vs $IWM https://t.co/5PhVIbpBfq
Multiples Capital on X
"Rally of the 2nd Tier": the runner-up is running the show over 6m/3m/1m time periods: • Silver > Gold ( $SLV > $GLD) • ETH > BTC • Small caps > S&P 500 ( $IWM > $SPY) Seeing it occur even in individual stock levels: • $AMD > $NVDA • $EXPE > $BKNG • $LYFT > $UBER What it implies: That breadth + beta has been improving, perhaps in anticipation of rate cuts and overall healthier economy than anticipated. Likely keeps the bull run going for now. Charts below
