Asif Suria on X
Agreed. The spread for the $WBD deal is the lowest it has ever been since this saga started, except on day one. https://t.co/XiWxUbanLQ https://t.co/snmvnKZyor
X
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
Agreed. The spread for the $WBD deal is the lowest it has ever been since this saga started, except on day one. https://t.co/XiWxUbanLQ https://t.co/snmvnKZyor
@tclaugus2 Interesting to see $FF in your portfolio. A friend was long and I looked at it around the time of their special dividend in 2024 before the appointment of the new CEO. The CEO's insider purchases last November and this June were timed well. https://t.co/b0d756MWkc
And over the last week we saw insider buying both by the COO and more importantly the firm that was a key pre-IPO investor in $SUJA Reminds me an opportunity I missed with $COCO a few years ago. https://t.co/EkfKdOYRSG https://t.co/DbSGfl1Slo
Sometimes we come across the same company multiple times due to different events. Noticed insider buying by a director of TechnipFMC $FTI while combing through insider transactions last night. Name rang a bell and so I looked up my brief note when I added it to my internal watchlist last year after a large stock buyback announcement. It went on to gain an additional 120% over the last year and is now up 1,163% over the last five years. And that too for an oil & gas services business.
We track insider buying in spinoff or their parents in a custom screen on InsideArbitrage that we like to call the Spinsider. There were three companies (spinoffs or parents of spinoffs) that saw insider buying based on Form 4s filed recently. 1. The home safety and security solutions provider Resideo $RESI completed the spinoff of ADI Global Distribution $ADGI just two weeks ago. This week we saw three different insiders of $RESI buy stock on the open market including the CEO and the General Counsel. $RESI was spun out of Honeywell $HON in 2018, making $ADGI Honeywell's grandchild. 2. Enviri $NVRI was less of a spinoff and more of a breakup. It sold its Clean Earth division to to Veolia Environnement S.A. and paid out $15 per share to shareholders from the proceeds of the sale. It then spun out its Harsco Environmental and Rail divisions and renamed them as Enviri just to confuse us a little. This new Enviri saw insider buying by two insiders including the CEO this week. @valuedontlie especially likes these "stubs" as he likes to call them and has done well with stubs like Starz Entertainment $STRZ Much to my detriment, I kept Lions Gate Studios $LION after the spinoff and sold Starz. 3. The building materials company Amrize $AMRZ, which was spun out of Holcim AG in June 2025 continues to see significant insider buying activity. This month six different insiders including the CFO and the Chief Strategy & M&A Officer purchased shares.
Nike's stock $NKE is down almost an additional 10% since I wrote this in June and what is even more remarkable is that On Holding $ONON is down 31% over the last year. The company went public on September 15, 2021 at $24 per share and closed its first day of trading at $35. All the wins On Running had against Nike, didn't matter because the starting valuation the market afforded the company towards the tail end of the COVID-19 bull market was too high. I have a pair of On shoes and had almost forgotten how remarkably comfortable they are until I switched to an older pair of Asics for a day. Ever since my Skechers shares were acquired by the PE firm 3G Capital last year, I have been thinking about investing in a potential turnaround at Nike or betting on $ONON's growth but thankfully decided against either option. Decker's $DECK with its HOKA and UGG brands hasn't been too hot either, down 14% over the last year. The correct move would have been $CROX or Asics in the Japanese market. But that is hindsight bias. Looking forward, two insiders, including the Co-CEO of $ONON appear to be bullish about the company's future prospects and purchased $2 million worth of stock each according to a Form 4 filed yesterday. The same insiders including the other Co-CEO also purchased shares in May at higher prices. Insiders are often early and that could certainly be the case here but these purchases are making me take a fresh look at $ONON again.
As I was working through the insider transactions filed last week for our Insider Weekends article that we have published every Sunday for the last 16 years, these four buys from last Friday stood out to me: 💻 1. A rare insider purchase by Intel's CEO Lip Bu Tan, where he bought $10 million worth of stock after the recent pullback at an average price of $95.00. $INTC The last purchase before that was by the CFO David Zinsner who bought shares in January at an attractive price of $42.50 per share. Former CEO @PGelsinger did even better with his purchases in 2023 and 2024, the last of which were at an average price of $22.53. He is up 365% on that purchase. Lip Bu Tan previously purchased $2.5 million worth of Intel stock in November 2023 when he was the CEO of Cadence $CDNS and was an Intel board member. 🚗 2. A purchase by the Chief Accounting Officer of Valvoline $VVV at an average price of $33.20. While the size of the purchase was not large at about $50K, you don't frequently see purchases by Chief Accounting Officers. @ChrisPavese mentioned that Valvoline was a top contributor to the Broyhill Asset Management portfolio in Q1 2026. ☕️ 3. A purchase by a director of the coffee chain Dutch Bros $BROS where he picked up 2,000 shares at an average price of $51.56. He also purchased shares in May of this year at a slightly lower price. 🧑🎓 4. A purchase by a director of Universal Technical Institute $UTI at an average price of $25.94 after a massive drop in the stock last week. Competitor Lincoln Education Services $LINC was also down sharply and I remember liking the thesis for the business after attending a presentation at an investor conference a couple of years ago. Unfortunately I didn't act and buy stock right away. Lincoln is up over 50% over the last year and is up 365% over the last five years despite this recent pullback.
Related from yesterday about the success rate of deal rumors like $WDAY: https://t.co/Ea5tx0kMx6
This potential deal for Workday $WDAY by Silver Lake as reported by @MilanaVinn of Reuters is fascinating. I wonder if Silver Lake is going to try to recreate with @aneelb what they did with @MichaelDell Silver Lake has been selling down their $DELL stock for several weeks/months as we have been reporting in our Insider Weekends articles every Sunday on InsideArbitrage. Workday got up to $300 at least twice in the last five years and I would be surprised if the final deal (if it happens) comes in below $250.
I am more interested in $FICO at its current price than when we wrote about the company last month in a Stock Buyback Wednesdays article. The company was trading at a little over $1,300 and we concluded the article as follows: https://t.co/pPAkm6nlxQ https://t.co/lE1RhBad7w
If Newsom has aspirations to run for president, he can’t be perceived as being bad for big business. The Warner Bros. $WBD situation is not the same as Sable Offshore $SOC and I am sure there is tremendous political pressure through the Ellisons. Larry didn’t get to where he is by backing down from a fight and we saw this in action during the acquisition of Peoplesoft by Oracle $ORCL more than two decades ago.
A friend mentioned MarketAxess $MKTX to me years ago. I followed it for a while but never acted on it. Despite the 44% premium being paid by $ICE to acquire the company, given the five year performance of the stock, this almost feels like a take under. Reminds me of the CBIZ $CBZ acquisition by Grant Thornton from earlier this week. Even after the acquisition related pop in the stock, $CBZ is still down more than 27% over the last year.
Sandisk $SNDK is up 22% in a single day and here I am posting about how the CEO of a grocery store chain joined his EVP in buying shares on the open market. Thankfully the model portfolio also has positions in $SNDK and $MRVL but the software exposure is hurting the overall portfolio today.
I was reminded of this tweet by Siyu Li as I saw the nearly $2 million insider transaction by the EVP, M&A and Corporate Affairs of Albertsons $ACI come in last night. Nice 4.27% move in the stock today. https://t.co/5AabcLpHDw https://t.co/PPbpZMz1NA
It is good to see the market recognizing that some of these SaaS companies like $ADBE, $NAVN, $ADSK and $CRM were oversold. My updated list of 62 software companies with insider buying can be found here in a tool that was built using Claude: https://t.co/ov9dxXgBid Here is some of what I wrote about the data in our July mid-month update a couple of week ago: "Industries in crisis provide fantastic opportunities if you are willing to wait patiently for some of the dust to settle and don’t mind temporary drawdowns as it is nearly impossible to pick bottoms. Earlier this year I started compiling a list of software and software-adjacent companies that were seeing insider buying after a massive drop in the price of their stock. I covered why this was important and included a list of 11 companies with insider buying in my article Where Are The Software Insiders? in February. Software-adjacent Companies What do I mean by “software-adjacent” companies? These are companies that have also seen their stock prices decline because of the perceived threat of AI to their business models. The list includes data providers like S&P Global $SPGI, MSCI $MSCI, and Morningstar $MORN. It includes e-commerce marketplaces like ThredUp $TDUP as well as the Latin America focused juggernaut MercadoLibre $MELI. It includes FinTech companies like SoFi $SOFI, PicS $PICS, PagSeguro Digital $PAGS, and StoneCo $STNE. I also decided to include cybersecurity companies like Palo Alto Networks $PANW and Gen Digital $GEN. Sixty Two Companies With Insider Buying The full list included 72 companies but I decided to get rid of five with a market cap below $500 million and another five whose gross margin was below 40%. The insider data is clean as a whistle because I reviewed every filing, read the footnotes and even adjusted the price of one purchase (Marqeta) to account for a reverse split. The buyback data specified in the Double Dipper column should also be good as I did several spot checks against 10Q and 10K filings. The rest of the data including valuation ratios and company metrics come from our data provider (FMP) and could have some issues. Several of these companies are foreign issuers (EPS reported in Brazilian reals but price reported in U.S. dollars), some went public within the last year and some ratios will be impacted by one-time items or growth from a tiny base. We have covered 18 of these companies in InsideArbitrage articles or newsletters"