Thursday Tailwinds #6: Sep 10, 2026
Chinese coking-coal shutdowns, elevator modernisation and Japan’s cybersecurity push create multiyear demand tailwinds for suppliers.
Thursday, September 10
Everything we published on this day.
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Chinese coking-coal shutdowns, elevator modernisation and Japan’s cybersecurity push create multiyear demand tailwinds for suppliers.
Otis is reversing excessive cost cuts as repair and modernization sales reaccelerate, targeting EBIT stabilization in Q3 after two outlook…
Credo's active electrical cables extend copper links to roughly 7 meters, targeting AI data-center connectivity as revenue grew 115% year…
Dillard’s cut shares outstanding from 74 million to 15.6 million while profits tripled, driving EPS from $2.67 to $36.42 and supporting a…
Looking at housing-related stocks lately... 2022 spin $MBC recently merged with $AMWD to consolidate kitchen cabinet manufacturers 1.5bn cap with ~1.2bn net debt and 2027 EBITDA est. at 350m (7.7x) The ugly: brushing up against debt covs, tariffs ramping, sales still falling https://t.co/hKPm2wXxPZ
August quick value write-ups... 1) $CALM -- cheap P/B mean reversion idea 2) $MNRO -- strategic review + activist + CEO incentive 3) $FOUR -- beaten down roll-up 4) $MKTW -- fundamental inflection point https://t.co/RcptMg3HfE
Commentary from $SHOE on Q2 results Footwear market sounds pretty awful right now Literally just wrote up $DECK and thinking might still be early https://t.co/gzUth0HisU
GeoPark’s Bare Block acquisition targets $1.2 billion of 2030 EBITDA, but 42.1 million to 47.6 million new shares and Gilinski control…
Signet, Medipal and First REIT headline 27 situations spanning buybacks, activism, M&A and liquidation catalysts.
Imperial Petroleum's record Q2 cash generation, major share repurchases and a $32 million Suezmax sale gain set up another record quarter.
Does anyone know a way for an $IBKR account to sell the Oracle default swaps, and have those still been going up a ton? IE: I want to get paid if Oracle does not in fact go bust.
@tomicki I can't even see what possibly resolves this for many, many years. Could see the big three $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN hit insane market caps.
Very well stated, short $PANW https://t.co/QcEgBbM9Mg
Brin owns at least two jets as well as a 466 foot yacht that is regularly seen cruising around the Mediterranean. Does he really have the intensity and focus to lead $GOOG’s efforts in AI? Start-ups are a young man’s game. (I also think Larry Page was more critical than Brin in Google’s early product and tech architecture successes)
Williams Companies faces a revoked Northeast pipeline permit while pursuing growth through Momentum Midstream, Gulf export access and…
In the 2000 example, $QQQ tried to take one final leg up... but it took 3 months. So even if we get a bit higher move up in $SOXX short term, I won't read into it too much. It'll really be new highs that makes me change my mind here. https://t.co/V5l640oDKE
$SOXX lost 30% in a month. So similar to $QQQ in 2000.
This could still be a 1996/1997-like pause, and maybe $SOXX does start roaring higher in another couple of months. In that instance, it'll be worth reacting fast and listening to the market quickly. Especially if $SOXX starts making new highs, that'll be the time to brace for another melt up / get defensive on shorts. I guess long only guys have the luxury or ignoring all of this.
$SOXX made a sharp dive in from June 30th to July 29th. The fact that it still hasn't recovered a month and a half later makes this look a lot more like a 2000's twilight-before-the-collapse market than a 1999 bear trap. Put that another way: On a sharp sell off, you can easily point to technical / positioning factors being the cause. Situational Awareness's blow up could have been a textbook example. But it's just not working that way. In fact, we had a sharp sell off, and there's seemingly no fuel for a rebound despite AI improvement news seeming to come out strong. Markets have wisdom to them. It's worth listening, bull or bear. Right now, the set up seems super bearish, like the market knows there is a problem with AI. And the most likely problem I see is that there's simply no sites available to build more electricity-hungry compute centers. Someone smart I talked with recently pointed out politics could block AI as well ... which could exasberate that problem a bit by individual small local areas or by state and possibly by country. But I still think the root issue here is just not enough electricity, there's simple a hard barrier in the world of atoms that takes many years to resolve.
Here's what I don't understand about $BWET : - the fund supposedly invests in exchange-cleared freight futures, not swaps tied to a freight futures index. See below from the latest 10-Q for the commodity trust, available on the fund docs page. - when I look up the futures I see no volume at all on CME, and I can't find an actual derivatives (not just index) quote on Bloomberg that shows volume traded - if the freight futures barely trade on exchange, what happens when the ETF needs to buy futures to issue shares or sell futures to redeem? What % of the OI in the lead months does the ETF own? - Is the underlying Ras Tanura to Ningbo specification for the futures accounting for ~90% of holdings relevant right now with pipeline diversion and tankers going dark through the strait? Without this information it seems impossible to even guess at how crazy things could get should the ETF see a lot of buy or sell interest. cc: @DryBulkETF @TheShortBear @EricBalchunas
I wrote up $APP. Gave it my thoughts. I think it is one of the best business models in the world. And if they can successfully get into the e-commerce space then there is a ton of white space for growth. Found a decent way to track their move to e-commerce too which I don't think many are doing. I am not buying here as this is like a 4% free cash flow yield. But this stock is volatile and I plan to take advantage of any sort of downturn and freak out price drop, which tends to happen in this industry. Putting it on my watch list. Have a read if you like ad-tech space. I find it fascinating.
AppLovin trades at 18 times EBITDA after a 57% drop, despite 84% EBITDA margins, rapid growth and a machine-learning advertising platform.
*MICROSOFT PLANS TO TRIPLE DATA CENTER CAPACITY TO 38 GIGAWATTS $MSFT planning on having more than 38 GW of capacity up in 2032, compared to 12 GW currently. Jeez man we might be early
Robert DeMartini and the entire board of $PRPL qualify for my special rule of “if you turn down multiple acquisition offers and then the company goes down 90% you go to jail for 5 years and all comp is clawed back and dividended back to shareholders”
Looks like $NU US operations are live. Might consider if it has Zelle. https://t.co/SATYDU8b7y
this is definitely about the war and the strait, but even more specifically the route to China from the gulf. Derivatives on that route account for about 90% of $BWET holdings. I'm not sure how frequently the underlying derivatives trade and cannot find a chart. Even on the terminal I can only chart the index not any derivatives that might show volume.
$CIFR< $16 👀
Great @YetAnotherValue interview with Zack Buckley on Priority Technology $PRTH out today. If you had told me that PRTH would only be up 65% (including massive, unwarranted share-price volatility) from my 5/2024 article after: ° Enormous capital structure improvements (expensive pref was strangling profitability) ° Successful deleveraging ° Solid business execution I would have been very surprised. It is a shame CEO Priore chose a take-private offer rather than capital allocation/return strategy (which I advocated for). Would have been easy enough to stabilize the equity and in my view rocket it higher over time - creating a successful, useful public equity and track record.
Rigetti's 108-qubit chiplet technology, $100 million CHIPS Act award and cash reserves support a speculative quantum case despite minimal…
Sobering one: of 31 distinct names, only 2 have actually reached my Realistic Valuation target. $EVTL and $RR. Median downside capture on the Sept '25 list: 73% of the decline I forecast. On the 2026 lists: 22-41%. Direction right. Magnitude still pending. This means there is still lots of meat on the bone in many of these names.
What I'm carrying into the next list: → Short arithmetic, not narratives → Overleveraged and Industry Bubble earn their slot → Potential Fraud has to clear a much higher bar → Stop re-shorting $RUM Full table and methodology at Shorts & Squeeze Corner.
Across all 110 position-instances: Average short return: +25.7%Median: +23.1%Hit rate: 81% — 89 of 110 names fell Best call, and it wasn't close: $EVTL Vertical Aerospace $5.00 → $0.58 Top performer on all five lists. The Sept '25 entry is +88%. Even the July '26 entry is +66%. The company flagged going-concern risk in a filing this month.
The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.
Biggest miss was $RUM. $RUM was my worst pick on four of five lists. Average: -23%. $PLTR: -13% average across four lists. Right on the multiple, wrong on the stock, repeatedly. $CVNA: -4% average — and I had it tagged Potential Fraud.
@BertrandPirel to what do you attribute the substantial availability (1.85m shares) and low borrow cost (3.25%) for $GPRO at IBKR?
Astute observation here. $STLN could not be better situated for the current environment, imo. https://t.co/sy97F9J9YU
Amplitude reported Q2 revenue of $100.9 million, up 21%, as agentic AI and LLM vendors challenge the moat of its product analytics software.
$COO vs. $STE https://t.co/9MyttwErCs
Sony's financial-services deconsolidation and TSMC sensor venture sharpen a higher-margin entertainment and imaging business, with segment…
$DBI out with a beat-and-raise, strong commentary: "Our second quarter results represent significant improvement in profitability year-over-year, highlighted by meaningful gross margin expansion as well as impressive sales growth in our Brand Portfolio segment," said Doug Howe, Chief Executive Officer. "We remain focused on generating long term value for our shareholders and are encouraged by the progress we are making against our strategic plan. These efforts have contributed to improved retail trends and a positive start to the third quarter, giving us confidence in raising our full year guidance." This is a stark contrast to rival $SHOE, which is puking on poor results and citing heavy promotional activity, and suppliers $NKE and $DECK which are testing 52-week lows.
$BKD - accelerating occupancy on operational improvements. Red-hot August making up for a softer than expected June. New chief sales officer seems to be doing a solid job. Renovations also helping. Like this management team. It might be an obvious play on Boomers aging but just because its obvious doesn't mean it won't work. The supply/demand mismatch is just econ 101. Lots of room to go if they keep up this solid execution under new management. Higher rates for longer keeps deters new supply too.
Owning $PLBY for the lingerie business is like reading playboy for the articles. https://t.co/zzHcF1nVza
$CNSWF back under $2000 https://t.co/oUVWbsP7pB
Broadcom and OpenAI’s Jalapeño inference chip targets lower latency and power use at less than half the cost of Nvidia GPUs.
$SHOP is down almost 15% in the last couple days on Agentic concerns. Per JPM: “We believe there are three key AI agent developments driving incremental concern: 1) Instinct, which remains in closed loop beta and handles features including email, calendar management, & select commerce transactions; 2) SPCX’s Grok Bot beta, which executes real work across apps & websites used by employees, w/bots operating app interfaces directly, retaining memory, and coordinating with one another; & 3) Meta Muse, powered by Muse Spark. Muse can execute daily tasks & select commerce transactions, w/payment infrastructure support from Link by Stripe, w/Shop Pay coming soon. Within emerging consumer AI agents, we view META as the most formidable across the agentic commerce stack given the company’s repository of data across tens of millions of advertisers & 3.5B+ DAPs, and Meta Muse’s leading price-performance value proposition.”
Another example of bozo management teams that exist in our world. Why would you include a one time benefit in adjusted EBITDA and EPS? $VNCE Popped as much as 20%, as some poor investors bought it pre-market. Now, it’s flat. Again - do the manual work. So disingenuous. https://t.co/QLEPxmU81z
@dede_eyesan @shortbus_ace @QuietProsperity $ASR has lower cost of capital than Motiva, and Motiva had too many capital commitments to its CAPEX on other things like the toll roads. Logical transaction for both parties as Motiva didn't have the balance sheet for it, $ASR can pay off the high-interest debt quickly.
@fleximan2222 $ORR hasn't been around for 5 years. Still a relatively short track record. And beta is a bit lower.
Colombia is likely to be extended, especially with Abelardo admin as counterparty. $ASR already in talks to fund Medellin expansion which would lead to new contract. What's wrong with Motiva acquisition? Balance sheet should be levered more, especially when buying at such low multiple. I don't think Cancun has "peaked" quite yet, but it will come at some point probably within 5-10 years. Cabos/PV are decent competition.
Sure $META Muse is good. Really good even. I had it go through my entire email last night and unsubscribe me from dozens of promotions and it only used around 10% of the free token budget But Instinct is also really good and didn’t need to pay Alex Wang a billion dollars to get there. And what happens when $GOOG releases their version? Being the first mover isn’t much of an advantage anymore. Nonetheless Meta Connect will be exciting to see in 2 weeks and expectations are very high for Watermelon
Kosmos Energy (KOS) is pitched as an oil stock poised to outperform if oil stays above $70-$80, supported by a claimed 2 billion-barrel…
BridgeBio Pharma raised Attruby peak-sales guidance as kidney-benefit data, fewer hospital days and competitor setbacks strengthen its…
TransDigm’s sole-source aerospace parts generate roughly 70% aftermarket margins, with 90% of revenue tied to owned IP and 80% from…
Event-Driven 🤮 Opportunity? $COO https://t.co/1oeYSxuPNx
Increasingly do tasks for us. The barriers to product development lowering making marketing the differentiator. Add on to this general economic growth driven by the AI boom. My current ways of expressing this in decreasing size order are $PUB.pa, $RDDT, $META, $SAX.de. $AMZN is
Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…
Priority Technology's CEO-led $6.00 to $6.15 take-private faces opposition citing a $12 to $19 valuation, while the special committee…
Gaming and Leisure Properties raised AFFO guidance and dividends after Q2, trading at 10.2 times forward AFFO with an 80% payout ratio and…
TD Synnex's Hyve growth supports its premium valuation, but weak cash conversion, working-capital absorption and external financing temper…
@matthew_sigel $CIFR https://t.co/YFrXSMIK8i
It's as simple as Dave just needing six paragraphs to (not) answer what the path to positive FCF looks like: $ccoi https://t.co/KfHBpx73J2 https://t.co/tgJbrY6pOF
Recurring revenues and margins up, bullshit adjustments down, honest-to-god FCF on pace to hit >3B in 2028, end-markets (large banks) doing well... And here we are tracking to >15% eFCF yield on a MSD grower... Almost as cheap as $GPN but in a stickier, less competive mkt
$FIS CEO frustrated they can't buyback shares, will prob. divest parts to accelerate: "Can't imagine anything that would accrue any kind of value besides the share repurchase. Very much look forward to getting back in the market." Either way, should restart '27 as leverage ~2.8x
DHT Holdings' low-leverage VLCC fleet has paid 66 consecutive dividends, with charter income covering forecast costs and spot earnings…
Vistra's 12% pullback coincides with higher EBITDA expectations, electricity demand from ERCOT and PJM data centers, and long-term Meta and…