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56 stories

$1.6T Market cap · 2026-10-21

@Mike10947310 1 click

Mike on X

During the Iran dip initially there was a lot of behind the scenes AI progress. And so when there was finally relief — in the form of the initial detente -> MOU — things totally ripped. I feel like with these insane $NVDA and $AVGO guides we are almost in this spot again. Hedge funds have delevered, momo has been historically crushed, Warsh has said a lot of hawkish things, and the next FOMC the market expects a hike. Obviously the big overhang is yields. But it feels to me like for all the discussion of guidance/rates/the yield curve… really the bond market just wants the war to end or at least be paused. I am not so sure that the US has no power to at least have things significantly deescalate when it wants (maybe into midterms). It’s like, we can “lose” a war, but Iran can still recognize that with time its leverage will decrease, its economy will be destroyed further… like it seems a bit naive just to think that because the war is going badly, Iran has no desire to see it wind down. This latest tit for tat for example hasn’t been that crazy. So IF you think that we get some sort of detente, which is really what I think yields need — are we not kind of a coiled spring here and running back a similar setup to when things started ripping?
@OddDiligence

Odd Diligence on X

I think what this guy @dylan522p does not understand is that receiving semianalysis institutional is just an information edge right now. Funds know they can short on publication and know they can cover lower- easy His negative pieces have been proven wrong more often than not, and when they’re right, the stories are often less material than stock moves on day of publication But he probably feels untouchable when he can take tens of billions off company values now, so he’s gonna typically act like a dick- but this type of edge rarely lasts long (and it won’t here) $AVGO $AMD $MU $NVDA
@convequity

Convequity on X

I do feel like people have cognitive dissonance here: Jeff Dean isn't only about the model application layer — he is the one who masterminded TPU, GOOG's incredible global distributed systems, and making efficient hardware + software actually work. The story isn't simply that models don't matter anymore for GOOG, that GOOG is all in on just AI infra as a more neutral player at the model layer, avoiding heavy investment that could get quickly depreciated by Chinese open source models because infra is the better business. It is simply that GOOG's current model effort is turning south at an accelerated speed. And they know this area is strategically important — otherwise Pichai wouldn't have fought so hard to keep Jeff and others from leaving. You can also excuse GOOG's strategic failure — not foreseeing this year's huge demand, not reserving enough TPU in-house for both model serving and training, and instead selling the capacity to Anthropic — as a smart move to profit from infra and shield away from model competition. It is just that GOOG's internal divisions don't collaborate with each other: the infra team sold out TPU to Anthropic this year in a negotiation done last year, while the model serving and training team never saw the demand coming and never worked that closely with the infra team. By the sheer fact that there are still people sugar-coating this story, I feel less confident about GOOG — although I am still quite bullish on its TPU and infra business. BTW, Anthropic is looking for building its ASIC with $AVGO directly, and also building and running its infra as well. Already they have pivoted away from directly renting GPU from GCP to hosting its TPU and building its kernel to juice up perf by 50% to 2X, and they will continue this optimization route just happening slower than OpenAI does.
@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

Thinking more about this, the timing feels increasingly closer: ​The market concentration is extreme: Mag 7 + $AVGO sits at a combined market cap of $18 Trillion. ​Contrast that with the entire Mid/Small-Cap universe: ​S&P 400 (Mid): $3T $MDY ​S&P 600 (Small): $1.4T $IJR ​Russell 2000: $2.8T $IWM ​A 10% shift in allocation ($1.8T) from Big Tech could easily double the market cap of these mid/small-cap indexes. ​It's not a new insight, but with growing AI bubble nervousness in market participants and rising FED rate cut expectations extending into 2026, the potential for this capital shift is getting compelling. ​#GreatRotation #SmallCaps #MidCaps #MarketTiming

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