Sector
Everything our editor has picked under this sector, best first.
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$QXO finally in my valuation zone, acquired shares this afternoon. Rates present a challenge, soft commodities surging and geopolitical could further stress inflation/yields but you usually do not get deal when everything is firing on all cylinders
This $WY looks like another dirt cheap timber REIT. Been doing a deep dive on the entire sector. Getting slammed from higher yields and home building slowing down. But these are incredible inflation assets and irreplaceable. It’s something I would hold as a cash alternative. Because you can’t trust cash at this point in the credit cycle. Own cheap timber.
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
The bigger issue I think is if changes in commission structures ongoing in real estate changes Zillows position in the industry and if they need to overhaul their model on the housing side? ZG running straight into https://t.co/xkzar3nuEl with success to increase supply and they'll both likely end up sharing that market (more a negative against csgp as they have the larger share in the rental space currently) but I think they end up shrinking that pie with their competitive attacks against each other. The compass and regional MLS provider lawsuit on exclusives, supply I think is the bigger case hanging over $ZG currently because thats one of the few threats to their dominance in mindhare in shopping/looking at homes online and their ad revenues there
Must read imo on $OPEN. Scott raises some great points about the potential if things go right. I have no position rn, and have a more pessimistic view than Scott on the value of Eric Jackson's involvement (my view: he certainly kickstarted but unfortunately showed his true colors stalking a random celebrity for no reason. He is a liability now).
I don't know what people expected for the $RKT print and guide. Always puts and takes, but this was a solid print in this environment. $UWMC just went through the windshield and my guess is that $RKT has some share gains to be had there. Gain on sale in the Pro channel was tight in the quarter so perhaps that reflects some of that.
Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…
Builders FirstSource reported Q2 2026 sales down 9% to $3.9 billion as weak housing demand and aggressive competitor pricing cut EBITDA…
Floor & Decor held 2026 guidance after a 2Q beat, with comps improving through June; tariff refunds lifted margins and may fund pricing…
Thanks again to @realsteveeisman for having me on his podcast again. It's always fun chopping it up with Steve. We talked about a lot of things: the ever shifting dynamics of the residential real estate market ($Z/$ZG, $COMP $RKT, $CSGP etc.), structural problems in for-profit education (it's not just AI), and why I'm short $GOOG among other things. You can listen to the episode here! https://t.co/PdhE7ro93h
Alpha where you least expect it... Over the past 3-months the FURNITURE space has delivered monster upside relative to the indices. Many of these legacy companies have pristine balance sheets, generate cash, and continue to modestly grow their order books despite the ongoing weakness in housing. These stocks in some cases were trading at close to zero EV ($BSET, $ETD) when including their real estate holdings. They remain cheap and have tons of earnings leverage to a housing upturn. 3-month returns: $BSET 47.7% $BOBS 30.8% $HOFT 17.5% $WSM 17.2% $LZB 14.7% $HVT 13.3% $SPX 6.4%
Airbnb spent 1.1% of 2025 GBV on field operations and policy as regulatory costs persisted; New York’s short-term-rental crackdown cut…
Sector action is bizarre today --- travel/discretionary (ex amazon (who posted very lousy prime sales) are surging), housing and adjacent like furniture ($w $wsm), biotech adjacent bid ($rgen, $medp) and waste stocks ($wcn). You want to derrick micron, I get it. And I get gas prices lower, market expects to fade out rate cuts that were priced moving forward as Warsh moves to trim mean/new data versus actually being hawkish, and some impact on a name like $hd off the housing bill. But all of these things are at the margin and known leading up to today --- so why target, kbh (on relatively inline to disappointing numbers yesterday) Expedia today versus yesterday? Market moves in very funny ways recently
$FGMC $3.5B mkt cap tiny home builder. $1M sales. -1,000% GMs. Incinerating cash. 83% SPAC redemption, only $14M in cash. Auditor: "substantial going concern doubts.” Modular homes industry littered with recent bankruptcies. Dubious leadership backgrounds.
$QXO gang anyone have a current cap table, wanted to run some numbers but its hard to keep up with all the issuance/debt offerings.... Pro forma suggests there is around 1.1B shares outstanding? (will that include all the financing to get Topbuild closed (I believe so)? + around $8B in net debt (pro forma) So at $14 a share - that would be roughly $23B EV value? Anyone confirm this or tell me which pieces are wrong (for Kodiak, beacon and Topbuild) Roughly $2B EBITDA off their press release (probably up for debate, rates/economy, then need to look how much synergies might be backed into that) So 4x leveraged (means likely more shares need to get issued to de-risk especially with interest rate risks and transmission to demand) so 11.5x with mote dilution (likely).....getting close but not there yet - still think you need to wait for 10x or < Last and most important question does the math around Beacon change - 15x is meaty for a distributor multiple so unlikely they walk. But with the 45/55 split (is there floor conditions or will TopBuild eat that difference if/when they vote later this month (if not anyone know what the break fee is). Thanks in advance
You wouldn't know it based on the way investors on this platform talk about homebuilders and the housing market in general but Berkshire Hathaway's deal for $TMHC is the THIRD announced takeout of a publicly traded homebuilder this year. Sentiment in the space has rarely been worse than it is now, but some longer term thinkers see the opportunity... $XHB $ITB $TPH $UHG
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q1 revenue down 15.5%, gross margin at 3%, and a $1.73 million loss while drawing $2 million on its…
The SF housing market is on fire. Should bode very well for $FPH's Candlestick project, including finding financing partners. https://t.co/vFjXoS2coK
Otis Worldwide's largest global elevator installed base generates 95% recurring revenue, with service margins above 90% supporting a…
Zillow is pitched as a long with a $72 target, implying 58% upside from trough earnings and a trough valuation multiple.
QXO, led by Brad Jacobs, is consolidating North America’s fragmented building-products distribution industry after rapidly building scale…
$NX 5% of COGS/ direct input costs sourced from China. Tariffs + zero pricing power, high fixed cost structure + only 30% GMs = 25-30% hit to EBIT. Add 4x leverage, declining volumes, ambitious mgmt guidance while integrating a large acquisition is a setup for a trainwreck.
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
