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815 articles about companies over $10B

@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

I've been as skeptical of the semi hype/froth as any of the bears - but also open minded as per our process. We've largely avoided material positions on the long side in the space, with the exception of some trades here and there and some 2nd/3rd order beneficiaries that we identified early-ish. Also short $SOXX in decent size. But that said, and sticking with the open-minded process - it's pretty rare to see gaps between fwd EPS estimates and stock price as wide as what is visible in $SNDK here:

Netflix: DCF Valuation

Netflix’s updated DCF values shares at $88.50 versus $69, with slower revenue growth offset by higher margins and revised…

NFLX $511B
Hated Moats
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

$NFLX incremental margins are 28%, down from 36% in Q1. Tech spend up 22%. Fastest growth in that opex line in many quarters. Incremental margins will improve in 2h, but beyond that, with more live events (expensive sports rights) and investment in short-form, on top of the usual long form scripted, I think there's risk to the pace of operating leverage going forward and thus investors will have less confidence in what has historically been a solid margin expansion story.
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Exceptional idiosyncratic short opportunities emerging from the on/off semi trade that is largely indiscriminately moving the markets and sectors each day. (been long opportunities that emerged too) Private credit exposed names have ripped off financial sector rotation and likely some short squeeze in heavily exposed names - names like $FG $MET $MFC (continue to tout these until their exposure is recognized by the market) Software - each name needs to be looked at on its own accord, the broad software is dead or alive from ai does not work. Big rally across the board has left more disrupted names like $PCTY and $PAYC up for the year now. Plenty of others that look good to build sort positions against (especially if you have long software/dats service provider exposure) Dispersion past quarter should set up some very interesting opportunities that should have to stand on their own fundamentals when earnings come
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

Alpha where you least expect it... Over the past 3-months the FURNITURE space has delivered monster upside relative to the indices. Many of these legacy companies have pristine balance sheets, generate cash, and continue to modestly grow their order books despite the ongoing weakness in housing. These stocks in some cases were trading at close to zero EV ($BSET, $ETD) when including their real estate holdings. They remain cheap and have tons of earnings leverage to a housing upturn. 3-month returns: $BSET 47.7% $BOBS 30.8% $HOFT 17.5% $WSM 17.2% $LZB 14.7% $HVT 13.3% $SPX 6.4%

Thoughts on PayPal Buyout Offer

PayPal faces a $60.50-per-share buyout offer from Stripe and Advent, with a rejection or counteroffer above $80 viewed as more likely.

PYPL $47B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Pretty violent breakdown in the $MTUM and $SPMO ETFs. As you would expect they are now memory heavy indices and won't see a reset of their holding for a while (3rd/4th week of september for both ETFs). Momentum is having a historical selloff which of course was preceded by an unprecedented run (100% outperformance for the $SPMO over the past 3-years relative to the $SPY - never happened before). The charts look awful and the 50-day moving average has been breached. Not good for momentum of the momentum....
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Someone really going to need to explain how Stripe buying $PYPL is also bullish for $XYZ? Venmo now gets unlimited funding, a direct consumer facing application for the biggest player in payments, and the optionality of their checkout/pos business if they want to scale and invest aggressively their for that (like pushing their stable coin initiative that would be well received by retailers). Would think the correct framework for this deal is it is net negative the entire payment space as a new entrant has new pathways to compete and disrupt ($TOST, $STNE $FOUR etc included)

New Position: Volatility Merchant

A digital market-infrastructure platform dominant in rates and expanding in credit trades at 22 times free cash flow, with 45%+ FCF margins…

TW $25B
Aurelion Research

WhatsApp's New Era

WhatsApp named CRED founder Kunal Shah to replace Will Cathcart after Meta bought a 20% CRED stake for $900 million, signaling a push to…

META $1.5T
MBI Deep Dives 1 click