Daily recap, Thursday, October 22

Thursday October 22nd, 62 stock ideas

Most viewed

This Week in Special Situations: Solstice, Albertsons, Brockhaus, GM

Latticework by MOI Global SOLS $9.6B ACI $6.5B

Solstice, Albertsons, Brockhaus and GM anchor a 34-case survey of activism, buybacks, M&A and strategic reviews, led by Starboard’s Solstice breakup thesis and GM’s $20 billion repurchase.

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Latticework by MOI Global MOS $5.5B

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

4 Boring Non-AI Stocks Trading at Attractive Valuations

Jimmy's Journal ROL $16B

Rollins, North America’s largest pest-control provider, gets 75–80% of revenue from recurring contracts but has fallen about 45% year to date after weather-driven growth misses.

Technology and AI

𝕏  @aleabitoreddit

$NVDA Jensen Huang: Surplus of memory supply is unlikely by 2029. The CNBC question referenced a Korean newspaper opinion on $KOSPI / Samsung / SK Hynix that predicted "new supply will leave the memory sector a red ocean in 2029." "One of the things that's really great about memory is that you can always use more of it", Jensen said, citing LPDDR usage in DCs. And responded "I don't think so" in…

Serenity

NVDA $5.1T

Field Trip: AI Has to Be Seen to Be Believed

Aurelion Research NVDA $5.1T

Seattle AI users report major productivity gains and expect firms to shift from OpenAI and Anthropic toward owned hardware, supporting Nvidia across scenarios.

𝕏  @convequity

We think Huawei's control of lasers, optics and packaging could weaken pricing power at NVIDIA ($NVDA) and Broadcom ($AVGO). Our view: designing these components together lets Huawei choose embedded lasers based on what works best for the whole system, with less need to accommodate separate suppliers' products and margins. That makes lower-power embedded lasers easier to use and reduces…

Convequity

NVDA $5.1T

𝕏  @convequity

Nvidia's ($NVDA) own new programming language makes it easier to move AI code to rival chips. In December 2025 Nvidia launched CUDA Tile. In a tile language the programmer describes work as blocks of data and the compiler works out how to run it on whichever GPU it is given. Our read: Nvidia no longer writes code around the CUDA core. Code written for one GPU generation increasingly breaks on the…

Convequity

NVDA $5.1T

𝕏  @RagingVentures

@starsofrhun I’m short $AAPL too

Raging Capital Ventures

AAPL $5T

Lam Research Q1 FY6/27 Earnings Review

Cestrian Capital Research LRCX $326B

Lam Research reported $8.22 billion in Q1 FY6/27 revenue, with systems up 62% and operating margin reaching a record 40% as memory spending accelerated.

Undercovered Dozen: Western Digital, Penguin Solutions, Millrose Properties And More

Seeking Alpha WDC $132B PENG $3B

CoreWeave Vs. Nebius: Battle Of The Neoclouds, I'm Backing Nebius

Seeking Alpha NBIS $46B CRWV $34B

CoreWeave: Why Patient Investors Should Hold Through Volatility

Seeking Alpha CRWV $34B

CoreWeave targets 8 GW of active power by 2030, expands into India and builds its AI cloud ecosystem through Google Cloud and partner integrations.

OCP 2026: MicroVCSELs are gaining attention, but microLEDs still have a case

Vik's Newsletter CRDO $32B

Credo’s microVCSEL pivot targets 10–20m data-center links where copper falls short, while microLEDs compete nearer compute on integration, power and thermal performance.

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Consumer Discretionary

𝕏  @BlueDuckCap

$META said ARPU on Muse will eventually be higher than existing ARPU on family of apps. That's triple digit. Incredibly bullish for META if it happens - would 2x revenue at least, using low end of Zuck comments. But where does the share come from? Agentic shopping is not nearly enough GMV to take unless they take a substantial chunk of the TAM and fully disrupt companies like $AMZN. You start…

BDC

AMZN $2.8T

Tesla Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

Cestrian Capital Research TSLA $1.5T

Tesla’s Q3 revenue was flat at $28.0 billion, while operating income fell 56% as R&D spending on AI rose 69%; SpaceX merger discussions are under study.

𝕏  @irbezek

With $BABA back under $100 this morning, your periodic reminder not to buy EM funds that allocate heavily to China. https://t.co/9ZridYbgKF

Ian Bezek

BABA $254B

Sea Limited (SE) Sea Cloud and Monee IPO

Sleep Well Investments SE $47B

Sea Limited plans Sea Cloud and a Monee IPO, using 40-plus data centers and 25,000 GPUs while risking heavier capex and prolonged thin Shopee margins.

𝕏  @irbezek

@ReturnsJourney I bought some $JD recently. You can generally make some money buying China at long-term support and selling into rallies. But it's hard to permanently rerate until CCP is gone.

Ian Bezek

JD $34B

𝕏  @AsifSuria

This is a positive development in the right direction for Mattel $MAT It was also good to see this at the heels of Hasbro's $HAS strong earnings this week https://t.co/X6gYlKpmFM https://t.co/UBY85cb3SR

Asif Suria

HAS $16B

Group 1 Automotive (GPI) vs Lithia Motors (LAD)

Cannibal Stocks LAD $6.6B GPI $2.7B

Group 1 Automotive and Lithia Motors divide two longtime value investors: David Abrams switched to Lithia in 2018, while Greg Alexander built a 16% Group 1 stake.

Atour Lifestyle ($ATAT): The Hotel Chain That Is Secretly a (Sleep) DTC E-Commerce Brand

Substack von Philipp ATAT $4.5B

Atour Lifestyle combines an asset-light Chinese hotel franchise network with Atour Planet sleep-product sales, using guest rooms as product showrooms.

Financials

𝕏  @BrokenMoats

Full disclosure my frustration with these dispersion short trades intra ai squeezing has likely emotionally walked me into aggressively shorting a bunch of them today and yesterday after following for weeks in bewilderment. $DOCU $V $APPN $GDDY $PCTY $PAYC $KSS $ROL puts and shares on all. Won't stay forever just for reality to comeback, seems like the goal/twst setup from a few weeks ago

Broken Moats

V $763B

𝕏  @irbezek

$EDV (long-duration U.S. bonds) now up 11% from recent levels on a 2.5% decline in the S&P 500. Wonder what happens if $SPY drops 25%... https://t.co/qPbmH2tVba

Ian Bezek

SPY $654B

Moody's: Q3 Earnings Emphasize Detached Valuation

Seeking Alpha MCO $84B

Moody’s Q3 revenue rose 1% as operating margins fell, while shares trade near 30 times forward earnings despite slower growth and a weaker business mix.

𝕏  @stockgutter

two names I like that benefit from a decline in 10-year: $MRP Millrose Properties - two angles here. First, its high dividend looks even better when the risk-free rate declines. Second, it finances land for homebuilders so has upside from any improvement in that sector. $RKT Rocket Companies - largest nonbank mortgage lender will be a survivor as competitors like UWM flounder I own both. May add.

RKT $31B

𝕏  @BillAckman

Some thoughts on Fannie $FNMA and Freddie Mac $FMCC https://t.co/KQTuaRsx9v

Bill Ackman

FNMA $4.4B

Energy

𝕏  @Mr_Neutral_Man

@credealjunkie Weird days in my portfolio Calls in $USO up Puts in $IWM and $SPY up Event driven name up REITs up Puts in Coreweave up + 4.3% vs Nasdaq today Some pod long/short factor favoring my positioning I'm not smart like this, I'm not sure if I'm smart at all https://t.co/AOgWSRqhKt

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs”

IWM $83B

Healthcare

[ISRG – Intuitive Surgical] the robot is the easy part

scuttleblurb ISRG $153B

Intuitive Surgical built a razor-razorblade model around da Vinci robots, with procedure growth driving recurring instrument revenue and hospital system purchases.

𝕏  @BarbarianCap

Moderna’s Stock Plummets After Cancer-Vaccine Data Shared on Social Media $MRNA https://t.co/AM3j4IgqVS

Barbarian Capital

MRNA $98B

𝕏  @BlueDuckCap

@srg444 bullish scenario on $MRNA is ~$50-60 / share. So yeah - more than cut in half.

BDC

MRNA $98B

𝕏  @kevin__mak

$MRNA Update on the realtime short-interest from Markit. Note that on 10/8 there was the NDX100 inclusion event, that mechanically increases short interest (due to index arb/basket/swap/etc) type of trades, so don't look at that step-up in short interest as indicative of anything. I am very interested in observing how positioning evolves from this point onwards, now that the "data is out". Most…

Kevin Mak

MRNA $98B

𝕏  @finphysnerd

$MRNA down 17% it's a beautiful day🥳

Myles

MRNA $98B

Revvity: A Diagnostics Annuity Is Quietly Funding An AI Data Engine

Seeking Alpha RVTY $17B

Revvity’s diagnostics revenue grew 11% and software ARR rose mid-20%, funding an AI-enabled platform despite life sciences weakness. EPS grew 13% on 3% organic growth.

Unicycive (UNCY):

Triple S Special Situations Investing UNCY $110M

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical or safety concerns.

Communication Services

𝕏  @aleabitoreddit

AI names are backed by actual earnings and contractual demand. Memory names are under <3x fwd P/E, with LTAs extending 5-10 years from your richest companies in the world like $GOOGL. Optical names are compressing to <10x fwd P/E despite 500-1000%+ growth next year Back in the day companies like Cisco/Yahoo were in 100x-600x+ earnings range.

Serenity

GOOGL $4.2T

𝕏  @finphysnerd

It's fascinating to me that the best capital allocators in the world ( $AMZN, $GOOGL, $TCEHY, $MSFT) with clear views of returns and use cases across many industries are saying that AI Capex is their best use of capital, yet everyone is still skeptical.

Myles

GOOGL $4.2T

𝕏  @leevalueroach

By the end of 2026 $META will have spent $390 billion on AI and they have this to show for it. LMAOOOO https://t.co/DD2bkZKltR

Lee Roach

META $1.8T

𝕏  @SouthernValue95

Absent the very odd 8k, $META results were strong. - 26% revenue growth - Guided to ~150bp acceleration in 4Q at the midpoint - 10M muse accounts, 15M Meta One, and both are in infancy and mostly just rolled to North America. 92% of META users are outside NA - Committed to bring down FRL losses and trend towards profitability over time Stock is trading at a low-mid teens multiple of ex-Muse/FRL…

SouthernValue

META $1.8T

Meta 3Q’26: Healthy Core, But Investors Spooked by Potential Funding Ambitions

MBI Deep Dives META $1.8T

Meta’s ad revenue grew 26% to $63.1 billion, but negative free cash flow and $135-145 billion of capex raise concerns over AI funding and a new share class.

Meta Earnings Update: Q3 2026

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets META $1.8T

Meta’s Q3 revenue rose 26% to $64.6 billion, but $34.9 billion in AI infrastructure spending drove free cash flow negative as it created non-voting Class C shares.

Meta: 3Q26 Business Update

Speedwell Memos META $1.8T

Meta’s Family of Apps revenue grew 26% as Muse reached 10 million users, testing AI-agent commerce while Amazon restricts access and Walmart welcomes it.

META Q3 FY12/26 - Hold - Earnings Review

Cestrian Capital Research META $1.8T

Meta reported Q3 revenue of $64.6 billion, up 26%, while $34.9 billion of capex drove negative free cash flow and a $9.89 billion legal charge cut operating margin to 20%.

Consumer Staples

𝕏  @RagingVentures

Shorted some of the "defensives" which seem a bit overdone here: e.g. $MO, $DEO, and $BRKB. Any other names of this ilk that look interesting?

Raging Capital Ventures

MO $125B

Diageo: Gen Z Is Drinking Again, And They Want Cocktails

Seeking Alpha DEO $52B

Industrials

𝕏  @junkbondinvest

SpaceX is looking to raise a massive $40bn of debt, led by Apollo and GS (per Semafor) $SPCX https://t.co/vtBR80mqx9

junkbondinvestor

SPCX $2.1T

𝕏  @convequity

SpaceX ($SPCX) targets 13GW, close to our own estimate. In August 2026, our calculation put SpaceX's visible compute capacity over the coming years at roughly 13GW. On the Q3 call, Elon Musk targeted 13GW online by the end of 2027. The numerical match is encouraging. Musk's target concerns terrestrial compute, while our work examined the longer-term orbital opportunity. It supports our view of…

Convequity

SPCX $2.1T

𝕏  @aleabitoreddit

I don't own $ASTS and not advice, but if you're capitulating just because a stock price went down.. There's little investment thesis or conviction in the first place. People always have multi-year ideas like $RKLB becoming the next $SPCX or AST becoming the next Starlink competitor. Kinda reminiscent of retail favorite names like $HOOD back in 2024, or $NBIS later in 2025... But there's always…

Serenity

RKLB $31B

𝕏  @StableBread

Curtiss-Wright $CW is BWX Technologies’ $BWXT closest comp, and $BWXT trades below it on every measure but FCF yield. Since naval propulsion is close to half of $BWXT’s revenue, its closest comps are other Navy suppliers. Small-reactor developers like Oklo $OKLO and NuScale $SMR wouldn’t work anyway, as they lost $73.2M and $64.0M from operations in Q2 2026, leaving no EBITDA multiple to compare…

Fajasy

CW $18B

Materials

𝕏  @AsifSuria

A whole new way to "mine" for gold!! Although I prefer the way Newmont $NEM does it. At its current cost of production, the company is essentially printing cash. https://t.co/wz0ugYpeK1

Asif Suria

NEM $123B

𝕏  @KEDM_COM

Inside buying at Amrize $AMRZ continues while the stock makes new lows. This US aggregates-and-cement spin from Holcim saw revenues accelerate in H1, but not enough to offset pricing pressure from low cement prices and high energy costs. The market argues for a multiple closer to peers MLM and VMC, but maybe the cement and construction exposure deserves a bit of a discount?

KEDM.com

AMRZ $21B

Mosaic: Cash from Potash Now, a Recovery in Phosphates Later

Latticework by MOI Global MOS $5.5B

Mosaic’s potash business generated $930 million after capital spending and closure cash in 2025, while phosphate operations consumed $207 million ahead of a projected recovery.

Moon River Moly: Research Note

Atrium Research - Equity Research MRIVF $16M

Moon River Moly’s updated Davidson PEA lifts after-tax NPV to $1.24 billion as flotation raises tungsten output 350% and cuts molybdenum AISC to US$4.36 per pound.

Real Estate

𝕏  @Mr_Neutral_Man

Had Serenity bought the $PSA preferred yielding 7.1%, $964,850 of annual dividend income would've been locked in for life https://t.co/Y24BMKCeeq

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs”

PSA $55B

Weyerhaeuser Company: Timberland Assets Offer Long-Term Upside At A Discount

Seeking Alpha WY $14B

Weyerhaeuser’s $23.07 sum-of-the-parts valuation rests on discounted timberlands, while its 4.3% dividend needs stronger free cash flow and industrial recovery for full coverage.