Daily recap, Monday, October 5

Monday October 5th

This day on bullpen.news

Technology and AI

𝕏 @TidefallCapital

Burry getting buried $NVDA https://t.co/XkT5ORphez

Trevor Scott

NVDA $5.5T

NVIDIA SERIES | PART 1 : Jensen's Math and the Blackwell Gap: Dies, Chips, GPUs, and Revenue

Kakashii's Materials NVDA $5.5T

Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU rollout created an AI compute oversupply after customers preordered millions of chips amid expected shortages.

𝕏 @negligible_cap

*META STAFF USING CLAUDE LOWER TO 30,000 FROM 60,000:INFORMATION *MICROSOFT LOWERS CLAUDE SPENDING BY OVER A THIRD: INFORMATION $META and $MSFT just doing their part in pacing the frontier. Good thing Q3 is in the books for Anthropic’s S-1

Negligible Capital

MSFT $3.8T

𝕏 @convequity

High-bandwidth memory generally costs about 5x more per GB than conventional DRAM. As AI systems support longer context windows and more complex reasoning, memory demand is spreading into conventional DRAM and NAND. The mechanism is a tiered memory system. HBM holds active model weights and the context needed now. External DRAM holds a broader pool of context that the model can retrieve, while…

Convequity

MU $1.2T

𝕏 @convequity

$NET's AI hosting is limited by the physics of its edge footprint and by the role of its products. Carrier-hotel sites built for fast network traffic are a different proposition from purpose-built AI datacenters. Cloudflare’s own engineering disclosures acknowledge power constraints, and management distinguishes its strategy from the hyperscalers’ GPU spending race. Our assessment starts with a…

Convequity

NET $125B

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Seeking Alpha CIEN $55B

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives CRWV $49B

CoreWeave’s compute-selling economics face a narrowing margin of safety if new capacity closes today’s AI supply-demand gap.

Consumer Discretionary

𝕏 @ChrisCamillo

@RealSalesCrap i rarely pay attention to daily stock moves even on big positions like $AMZN . it’s a distraction

Chris Camillo

AMZN $2.7T

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

$MELI - Long term vision. https://t.co/EXtoxpWBg3

Deep Sail Capital

MELI $88B

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

$MELI - Excellent Brazil outcome. Stock was at a technical bottom of its consolidation wedge. Business results will begin inflecting as the credit portfolio growth slows due to it’s now to size. Very bullish: Economic Backdrop, Business Results forward, and technicals

Deep Sail Capital

MELI $88B

𝕏 @leevalueroach

I went around to $GME stores and everyone said the exact same thing. They can't keep Pokemon cards on the shelves and the One Piece stuff is selling so fast that sometimes they can't even get product in.

Lee Roach

GME $13B

Harvia Oyj (HARVIA FH): Long

Value Investors Club written July 7th HRVFF $895M

Solid Power Still Has Promise

Seeking Alpha SLDP $539M

Solid Power reported a $0.11 Q2 loss and $419.3 million of cash, with its electrolyte pilot line and BMW and SK On validation central to commercialization.

Financials

𝕏 @ActAccordingly

Maybe I'm being too simplistic, but it seems like it's going to be hard for the market to have a sustained move higher if $GS doesn't start acting better.

PAA Research

GS $267B

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Substack von Philipp NU $61B INTR $2.4B

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the dollar against the real.

𝕏 @John_Hempton

@FedexSTi $NU back to the price it was three weeks ago.

John_Hempton

NU $61B

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

@grok how has $LPLA performed since this tweet? Basically since the “Muse” scare?

A Capital

LPLA $26B

𝕏 @kab604

$FOUR trading on ME headlines is one of the dumbest things in this dumbass mkt

kab60

FOUR $2.9B

Energy

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Bison Insights CVE $57B

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

Alliance Resource Partners: A ~10% Yield Backed By Contracted Coal And Growing Royalties

Seeking Alpha ARLP $3.1B

Alliance Resource Partners has 2026 coal sales fully contracted and is expanding oil and gas royalties through AllDale, supporting its 9.8% yield.

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

@AtlasShrug1 The JV with Sharon AI. Look into that. The PPA gives away 5% equity for the right for $NUAI to buy power from Vista.

Deep Sail Capital

NUAI $670M

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

Because they are bullshiting everyone. $NUAI https://t.co/FMGotqQuEr

Deep Sail Capital

NUAI $670M

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

@BitcoinAIGuy @optionology What assets does $NUAI actually own? A few million of real estate in Texas? Why is everyone so bullish on a company that was run / pivoted into “power shells” by a shady oil field guy like E Will Gray II?

Deep Sail Capital

NUAI $670M

The Monday Morning Briefing: AI Drives Everything, Yet ROI on Massive Capex Remains Uncertain

Latticework by MOI Global OMSE $195M

Latticework’s briefing questions AI capex returns while featuring Close Brothers, Green Landscaping and OMS Energy Technologies.

Healthcare

Iovance: Buy Now Before Many Growth Catalysts Kick In

Seeking Alpha IOVA $6.4B

Iovance raised 2026 revenue guidance to $410–$420 million as Amtagvi adoption accelerates, with melanoma, lung cancer and international expansion targeting a much larger market.

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

@shallowdives1 @peter_mantas Yeah it’s a nice little industry bubble forming. $DNA is also a Shitco

Deep Sail Capital

DNA $842M

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

$DNA - Looks like another genetics short too.

Deep Sail Capital

DNA $842M

𝕏 @BrokenMoats

$DNA another perfectly rational move, happens daily across this low quality business, low quality balance sheet biotech tangential name space (ironically while actual biotech names sell off due to rates). My biggest question is why are these co. not raising $$$, all of them need money in this basket and their stock prices are up 100's% points in a very short period of time (few months). Wh not…

Broken Moats

DNA $842M

Nyxoah: Label Expansion Set To Unlock A Monopoly In A Billion Dollar Market.

Seeking Alpha NYXH $136M

Nyxoah's Genio implant could reach CCC patients after an FDA label expansion, targeting 30% of the obstructive sleep apnea device market by 2027.

𝕏 @SowingAlphaSeed

When is the correct time to short $ARKG? https://t.co/BcdIJj37oj

Farmer

ARKG

Communication Services

Meta And Alphabet Will Beat OpenAI And Anthropic

Seeking Alpha GOOGL $4.1T META $1.8T

Meta and Alphabet can fund AI with core profits, proprietary data and in-house infrastructure, giving META and GOOG pricing and compute-cost advantages over OpenAI and Anthropic.

𝕏 @convequity

Anthropic's $518bn of planned compute obligations is about the same size as $AMZN's entire stack of debt, leases and purchase commitments. Convequity's ABBX barometer adds up borrowings, leases, purchase obligations and leases not yet started for each hyperscaler. On that all-in measure, AMZN and Anthropic are roughly level. 1. Against valuation, the number looks normal. At the $2 trillion…

Convequity

GOOGL $4.1T

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𝕏 @negligible_cap

Seems like as good a week as any for $META to raise $50B or so in equity

Negligible Capital

META $1.8T

𝕏 @RagingVentures

@TarekAntaki I bought $CHTR stock today as well, Godspeed!

Raging Capital Ventures

CHTR $13B

𝕏 @calvinblissett

$BBGI diluted 27% (assuming warrants exercised) through that, some asset sales and share sales they generated $19m in cash. It was with an institutional investor. I don’t like getting diluted especially this early. I also don’t like what it implies which is that the liquidity of there assets is not good. There’s a chance this is just evilness by the Beasley family and they are trying to keep the…

Calvin Blissett

BBGI $21M

Industrials

𝕏 @negligible_cap

Why is $SPCX up 12% in the last two days https://t.co/UNaneqcrfX

Negligible Capital

SPCX $2T

Portfolio Update September 2026

D Invests CPRT $25B OTIS $24B

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway. Copart's $1.9 billion ACV Auctions deal accompanies margin and share concerns.

𝕏 @BrokenMoats

$CHRW shareholders not buying. Incredible amount of uncertainty in brokerage and how that will look in a few years from litigation impacts on costs (insurance and liability) and AI on margins/take rates. It is a phenomenal deal for $QXO shareholders as they get to exit at cyclical high pricing into incredible uncertainty. (why CHRW down) Also in your multiple assessment above, you need to…

Broken Moats

CHRW $18B

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

When rates jerk higher and everything rate-sensitive gets smoked together, that’s when you want to swoop in on the names where you actually have conviction. Rates spike. $FTAI, $CORZ, $CIFR, $OWL all gap down 5%. Did anything change in the catalyst? No? Buy the dislocation.

A Capital

FTAI $17B