Daily recap, Sunday, October 4

Sunday October 4th

Technology and AI

𝕏 @partners_road

You can trade many things on the Chicago Merc: soyabeans, gold, lean hogs, crude & rates. Now, CME Group plans to introduce a new commodity to the list: compute. CME calls it “the new currency for the AI economy.” Be careful what you wish for (re: price discovery outside $NVDA).

RiverRoadPartners

NVDA $5.5T

𝕏 @convequity

What $MNDY can learn from Cursor’s breakout and $PLTR’s head start General productivity AI may still be waiting for the foundation-model capabilities that helped coding applications take off. That leaves a possible breakout ahead for MNDY. But waiting for the next model release would give its competitors the same opportunity. Our latest SaaS Survival Scorecard explores what MNDY could build in…

Convequity

PLTR $455B

𝕏 @partners_road

$PSKY and $ORCL: The cost to insure the debt of both companies against default has converged and is increasingly moving in lock-step, a sign investors are beginning to treat the two credits as intertwined. This appears, to me, a very dangerous game the Ellison family is playing.

RiverRoadPartners

ORCL $419B

Practical Parametric Yield

Irrational Analysis CBRS $40B

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next 12 to 18 months.

𝕏 @John_Hempton

@DavidWeinetayg @TidefallCapital Debt covenants matter. It won't however be the first or last company to buy itself back into ch11. I mean look at last quarter's buy backs in $FICO.

John_Hempton

FICO $14B

Consumer Discretionary

Geely: Strategic NIO Battery Deal Is A Win

Seeking Alpha GELYF $21B NIO $8.4B

Geely’s ZEEKR nearly doubled first-half 2026 deliveries to 178,000, while Geely bought 30% of NIO’s battery-swapping unit to reduce infrastructure costs.

𝕏 @leevalueroach

Looks like we got 13.5 million shares trading of $GME tonight. Not sure what’s going on. Besides the heavy insider buys. https://t.co/cU9aBeRwRR

Lee Roach

GME $12B

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

$ONON so in vogue, it made it to the WSJ The Sneaker Taking Over America Was Inspired by iPhones and a Vacuum Cleaner https://t.co/rNjjRCEEnb

Barbarian Capital

ONON $9.8B

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Cannibal Stocks GPI $2.9B

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of debt.

Outdoor Holding Company: Undervalued Against Peers

Seeking Alpha POWW $266M

Outdoor Holding (POWW) trades at 7.5x forward EV/EBITDA, 33% below peers, after 22% first-quarter revenue growth; 20 million in-the-money warrants could dilute shares 15%.

💥Leslies Term Lenders Toss a Life Preserver💥

PETITION LESL $1.6M

Leslie’s and nine affiliates filed Chapter 11 in Texas on September 30, 2026, after 18 months of deteriorating performance.

🤿New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - Leslie’s Inc.🤿

PETITION LESL $1.6M

Leslie’s, the pool-supplies retailer, filed Chapter 11 after deteriorating operations, pricing and inventory missteps, and a burdensome capital structure.

Energy

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU): Long

Value Investors Club written July 6th BTU $3B

Peabody Energy, ticker BTU, is a low-cost producer of thermal and metallurgical coal with mines in the United States and Australia.

Kimbell Royalty Partners: The Growth Story Is Just Getting Started

Seeking Alpha KRP $1.6B

Kimbell Royalty Partners’ Mesa and Drop Down acquisitions lift 2026 production guidance 15%, while 13% dividend yield, unit dilution and commodity exposure shape the outlook.

Healthcare

Pyxis Oncology: Better Runway Is Bullish For MICVO's Remaining R&D

Seeking Alpha PYXS $183M

Pyxis Oncology's recent financing extends MICVO's runway to clinical milestones as the oncology candidate works to establish a safe, effective dose.

𝕏 @stockgutter

$CVM looks like this shitco is about to make another run. I'm sure it will be followed with massive dilution. https://t.co/wYduCbMgrd

CVM $37M

Communication Services

𝕏 @convequity

Convequity’s AI Bubble Barometer (ABBX) — Week of 2 October 2026 Our weekly framework tracks valuations, returns, capex, financing risk and infrastructure capacity across hyperscalers, neoclouds and model labs. Friday 2 Oct 2026 close (US ET): - Price drove the move: EV rose about $44B to about $14,114B. Invested capital (IC) was unchanged at $2,338B. - EV/IC: 6.04x, up 0.02x from 6.02x on 25…

Convequity

GOOGL $4.1T

𝕏 @ACapitalLP

The Muse point is exactly why I think perception is increasingly the whole game. If $GOOGL acquired Muse competitor Instinct tomorrow, does $META’s implied multiple compress before a single earnings estimate changes? Probably. The market is repricing perceived competitive advantage long before anyone can quantify the actual economics.

A Capital

GOOGL $4.1T

40 Best Stock Pitches (28th-4th October) 🟢

Capital Employed OMCC $27M

Old Market Capital, a delisted holding company owning a rural fiber network, trades below comparable network valuations after institutional selling.

Consumer Staples

𝕏 @DevinLaSarre

Newest out. British American Tobacco: Harvest $BTI $PM $MO $IMBBY $HAYPP $STG https://t.co/IjOEe4izVz

Devin LaSarre

PM $297B

British American Tobacco: Harvest

Invariant BTI $118B

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo 1.0’s failure.

Industrials

𝕏 @Adam_Wyden

@At50w50882 @310Value @ctfn_news All of their existing debt is portable… this was by design and both mgmt / IR call this out regularly. Only need to raise the new debt….dovigi haters are always gonna hate. That’s why it needs to go private $GFL