Daily recap, Monday, September 28

Monday September 28th

Most viewed

What the AI Boom Looks Like From Inside Cisco with Sam Badri | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 77

Cisco’s Sam Badri says roughly 90% of AI users remain at basic prompting, with few advancing to skills files or AI agents.

On’s Premium Playbook

TSOH Investment Research ONON $10B

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170 since 2023.

Veeva Systems (NYSE: VEEV) Stock Rating: Distribute After Q2 FY1/27 - Significant Gains To Bank

Cestrian Capital Research VEEV $44B

Veeva Systems moved VEEV to Distribute at $277 after a 41% gain in less than two months, despite Q2 revenue growth of 18% and 45% EBITDA margins.

Technology and AI

𝕏 @convequity

The $PLTR and $NVDA work on Nemotron, NVIDIA's open model family, is still under the radar, unlike partnerships that promise more than they deliver. In our view it could be industry-transforming, because each side needs the other: Nemotron is the Western open model that fits, and Palantir is the only vendor that can put a model into an enterprise securely, safely and privacy-first, and limit it…

Convequity

NVDA $5.6T

Nvidia: The Valuation Has Gotten Too Cheap, I'm Upgrading To A Buy

Seeking Alpha NVDA $5.6T

Nvidia trades at a 0.36x PEG and about half its 10-year average P/E while retaining more than 75% of the AI accelerator market.

𝕏 @negligible_cap

$NVDA’s $150B buyback authorization is bigger than the market cap of around 84% of all S&P500 companies

Negligible Capital

NVDA $5.6T

The Monday Morning Briefing: Micron and Nike Earnings on Deck

Latticework by MOI Global MU $1.2T NKE $53B

Micron and Nike earnings headline a weekly briefing featuring Exor’s NAV discount, Meta’s Muse agent and Bellway’s UK housing valuation.

Oracle: Here's How Badly The AI Trade Could Go (Rating Downgrade)

Seeking Alpha ORCL $401B

Oracle faces rising credit and spending risks as OpenAI-linked backlog, Project Jupiter delays and higher component costs threaten FY27 returns. The stock is downgraded to sell.

𝕏 @finphysnerd

@ArgonathCapital The real trade is $RSPD/ $QQQ. That's blown out completely.

Myles

QQQ $286B

𝕏 @convequity

An optical circuit switch never converts the light. A conventional switch takes light in, turns it into electricity, makes a decision, turns it back into light. An optical circuit switch steers the beam. The principle in the note: rather than optimizing a difficult conversion step, remove it. Three constraints follow. 1. Power. A 100-terabit-class silicon photonics OCS consumes only 200–300 W,…

Convequity

LITE $83B

INTUIT INC (INTU): Long

Value Investors Club written June 30th INTU $74B

Intuit, down 60% year to date, is the Nasdaq 100’s worst performer, ahead of declines at Workday and Adobe.

Zscaler (NASDAQ: ZS) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q4 FY7/26 Earnings

Cestrian Capital Research ZS $35B

Zscaler posted 25% Q4 revenue growth to $898.2 million and a 24.3% operating margin, but guided FY27 growth down to 16.6%-17.5% as free cash flow fell.

Syntec Optics: Q2 Indicates Inflection Point--Market Already Pricing It In

Seeking Alpha OPTX $298M

Syntec Optics posted $8.3 million Q2 revenue, returned to net income, and raised cash to $14 million after an offering, as communications and defense sales accelerated.

Consumer Discretionary

𝕏 @finphysnerd

I'm not a big chart guy but this feels like something. $RSPD https://t.co/V4jLm7iMmQ

Myles

RSPD $31B

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

$CROX new demand driver uncovered https://t.co/sJumnF7PRz

Barbarian Capital

CROX $5.9B

𝕏 @kab604

Detroit 3 losing mkt share, while Asian brands benefit from hybrid demand (high gas prices?) & more affordable vehicles. At high end, Mercedes seems to be doing well with refreshed lineup after EV snafu https://t.co/ZDQwaY1npT $AN $GPI $ABG

kab60

AN $5.5B

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

Vail Resorts Loss Widens After a Year of Tough Weather $MTN https://t.co/8UH8LNPKDb

Barbarian Capital

MTN $4.9B

QuantumScape: Sell The Stock That Has No Revenue And No Factory Until 2029

Seeking Alpha QS $3.1B

QuantumScape faces a 2029 PowerCo plant delay, reduced partner commitments and no revenue, with a scenario-weighted $2.12 per-share valuation against a $3 billion market cap.

Shake Shack: The Perfect Storm For A 2027 Breakout

Seeking Alpha SHAK $2.2B

Shake Shack combines 23% restaurant-level margins, 703 locations and positive free cash flow; the bullish thesis targets $4 billion intrinsic value by 2027.

STITCH FIX INC (SFIX): Long

Value Investors Club written June 30th SFIX $376M

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

Financials

𝕏 @irbezek

@ThainRos @MF_Camillus Credit cycle is bad in Brazil but $NU's book is performing. Look at peers instead to find the bodies. https://t.co/rpxE5Dp03v

Ian Bezek

NU $66B

CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS INC (CBOE): Long

Value Investors Club written June 30th CBOE $28B

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

𝕏 @TimyanBankAlert

Valley National Bancorp $VLY to Acquire Bluevine Inc., Accelerating Its Digital Small Business Growth Strategy and Meaningfully Enhancing Its Core Funding Capabilities https://t.co/KIPzCi3JLb

Timyan Bank Alert

VLY $7.2B

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

Burford Capital to gain up to $1.4 bn from Apple patent defeat $BUR https://t.co/FijYGEP3fo

Barbarian Capital

BUR $794M

INTERNATIONAL MONEY EXPR INC (IMXI): Short

Value Investors Club written June 30th IMXI $338M

International Money Express is shorted on the market pricing an 80-85% chance that Western Union closes its roughly $500 million acquisition.

𝕏 @valuedontlie

$SANG getting bought out by $RILY at ~$5.23/share 47% premium to $3.60 close price https://t.co/AuHqgNIh0G

Colin King

RILY $231M

Energy

𝕏 @convequity

Natural gas itself has not been the scarce input. The turbines have. Once AI data-centre load outran what the grid, renewables, and near-term nuclear could cover on a GW scale, gas became the compromise — and turbine demand surged from 2024–2025. Lead times still run roughly three to five years, with manufacturers already sold out into 2029–2031. That puts the first large batch of those ordered…

Convequity

EXE $20B

𝕏 @DOMOCAPITAL

@taketheLearly @GasBuddyGuy @grok $ALTO $GPRE

DOMO Capital Management, LLC

GPRE $1.1B

Riley Exploration Permian: 30% Oil Growth At Half The Sector's Multiple

Seeking Alpha REPX $910M

Riley Exploration Permian raised oil production guidance after a Q2 beat, targeting 30% growth while trading at 6.52 times forward earnings.

Healthcare

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

AstraZeneca to Invest $2 Billion in Summit Therapeutics, Collaborate on Cancer Drugs $AZN https://t.co/6MhBe4m8cP

Barbarian Capital

AZN $255B

𝕏 @DeepSailCapital

$TEM is being pumped by just about everyone on the recent FDA clearance on EKG-AI wins, but the revenue is far off and unsure if it materialises.

Deep Sail Capital

TEM $15B

𝕏 @BrokenMoats

A bunch of these bio tech "arms dealers" and "tech" companies need cash and are sitting on tremendous short term gains (2-4x in less than a few months) as they are being pushed aggressively by someone* Kind of odd to not see them hit the bid - $TXG, $GRAL, $MRNA could all use more cash, what are they waiting for?

Broken Moats

TXG $10B

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𝕏 @LaughingH20Cap

@chipperPat i am guilty here. I once thought $LFCR could be worth much more. I was wrong. Sort of. If you look at the CVR u can see the max bull case is very much alive. The problem is that w/ a weak balance sheet timing is critical & everything moved slower than anticipated by the bulls.

Laughing Water Capital

LFCR $247M

Communication Services

𝕏 @negligible_cap

So 25% of Anthropic’s revenue comes from 2 customers according to Reuters. One is probably $META based on recent reports (who probably pulls back the spending soon if Watermelon ends up being any good) Who’s the second?

Negligible Capital

META $2T

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

Meta launches enterprise AI business seeking to cash in on vast spending $META https://t.co/YsP5NnbgVz

Barbarian Capital

META $2T

Dox for Me, O Muse: Meta’s New AI Agent Built Lists of People in Vulnerable Groups on Request

Hunterbrook META $2T

Meta’s Muse AI compiled dossiers on vulnerable Facebook and Instagram users, bypassing safeguards with minor prompt changes.

𝕏 @finphysnerd

$META is going to destroy the enterprise software industry. https://t.co/8EICIEJIJZ

Myles

META $2T

𝕏 @negligible_cap

$MDB CEO steps down the day before their investor day to pursue a senior role at $META lol https://t.co/M1zSfOKn0C

Negligible Capital

META $2T

Inside AMD and Meta’s Equity-for-Compute Deal

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets META $2T AMD $1T

AMD granted Meta warrants for nearly 10% of its shares tied to a 6 GW compute commitment, creating roughly $100 billion of potential dilution at a $600 stock price.

Consumer Staples

SPROUTS FARMERS MARKET (SFM): Long

Value Investors Club written June 30th SFM $6.2B

Sprouts Farmers Market benefits from GLP-1 adoption, scrutiny of ultra-processed foods and dietary restrictions driving demand for natural and organic foods.

Campbell's: Profit Continues To Fall, But The Stock Is Becoming Interesting

Seeking Alpha CPB $6B

Campbell’s $500 million savings program and Rao’s growth could lift EBIT despite weak FY2027 guidance, while volume declines and inflation pressure margins.

Industrials

𝕏 @junkbondinvest

Which bond would you rather own at current levels? $SPCX 6.65% 2056s at ~85 / 7.9% / 238bps or $ORCL 6.7% 2056s at ~84 / 8.2% / 263bps

junkbondinvestor

SPCX $2T

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

Raytheon Gets $20.7 Billion Contract to Accelerate AMRAAM Missile Production $RTX https://t.co/qzm27WPV1F

Barbarian Capital

RTX $255B

RTX Corporation: Improving Margins Could Unlock More Value From Its Backlog

Seeking Alpha RTX $255B

RTX’s $289 billion backlog and margin gains at Raytheon and Collins support its 2026 sales target of $95–96 billion, while Pratt & Whitney engine repairs remain the key risk.

𝕏 @P_Remarks

There’s a special perk when you’re a shareholder where you can get aids $uber ‘d right to your house

Prepared Remarks

UBER $142B

Uber: The Aggregator on Trial

MBI Deep Dives UBER $142B DASH $81B

Uber's $193 billion in gross bookings and $10 billion in free cash flow contrast with modest stock gains as autonomous vehicles and delivery competition shape its outlook.

Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)

Value Don't Lie MOD $11B THRM $1.1B

Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with under 1x leverage.

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

AAR to Pay $1.8 Billion for Stake in Aircraft-Maintenance Company $AIR https://t.co/y3DZLQRhaO

Barbarian Capital

AIR $4.8B

Materials

𝕏 @BarbarianCap

Northern Star Rejects $27 Billion Takeover Proposal From Gold Fields $GFI https://t.co/loTzZWh7IZ

Barbarian Capital

GFI $36B

Real Estate

𝕏 @leevalueroach

Timberland companies looking pretty decent here. $RYN. https://t.co/tlr3d7MiCs