Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
From X
catechwilliams on X
@TheMuffinMan28 SRS is a PE rollout, bit of a hodgepodge of assets. Concentration in landscaping, pool and roofing. No exclusive relationships (GMS is for $AWI, regional duopoly across most categories). End customers are small homebuilders (more competitive, less scale benefit for distributors).
catechwilliams on X
$GMS Underfollowed building products distributor, HSD growth, favorable mix shift/ margin, tracking to beat estimates, trading at 10x EPS, 7x EBITDA. Peers at >50% higher multiples. $HD just acquired lower quality peer SRS for 17x EBITDA. GMS = $240 or +150% at that multiple.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Situation getting : 1) being investigated by SEC, DOJ for bribery, cartel dealings, 2) intensely competitive biz, losing customers/ share w zero earnings; 3) sale of struggling prepared segment faltering. None of this is priced-in yet. Next 2 quarters likely a disaster.
catechwilliams on X
$LYTS Very attractive acq of EMI following successful prior M&A blueprint--significant cross-selling op, cost reduction, expands product set which further solidifies dominant national position. Seeing +50% upside to shares from here.
Little Owl Research on X
@DeepDuDiligence Doing some DD on $TPET at the moment, have they given any guidance on how many wells they expect to start producing this year? Or what the BOPD could be?
Little Owl Research on X
@Tonyforever2003 @marketplunger1 This is exactly what came to my mind when reading this. I'm long $GPRK and $GTE for precisely this reason.
Little Owl Research on X
Here is a little pricing guide for any of you looking into $HHH at the moment. Credit to @mfwarder for the format. https://t.co/MeZP5qopmR
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT. Over the last 3 weeks have won several large upgrades—Colorado, UVa football stadiums. Each $15M projects to boost backlog and revenue >10% in the next quarter, further solidifying dominant market position. https://t.co/JFou9jCYxr
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $136M082920 $890M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $103MEVGGF $17B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6BBRSL $2B
- Maran Capital Management second quarter SPCX
- Intrepid Capital 2Q 2026
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $83BHDIH
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45BBABA $285B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5TORCL $430B
BHVN 2026-08-27 Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels
Edmund Ingham 5 clicks KSTR 2026-08-27 KSTR: Exposure To China's Chips And Potential Diversifier For SOXX
Chetan Woodun 4 clicks ACIW 2026-08-27 ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
SiliconBytes Insights 5 clicks
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
MT 2026-08-27 ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
Capital Connoisseur 3 clicks VRT 2026-08-27 Vertiv: AI's Physical Bottleneck Is Expanding Its Value Per Megawatt
LL Insights 3 clicks FUFU 2026-08-27 BitFuFu: A $93 Million Liability No One Can Explain
Dorine Cherop 1 click
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket
Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
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