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Wednesday, August 26, 2026

From X

@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

$NFLX incremental margins are 28%, down from 36% in Q1. Tech spend up 22%. Fastest growth in that opex line in many quarters. Incremental margins will improve in 2h, but beyond that, with more live events (expensive sports rights) and investment in short-form, on top of the usual long form scripted, I think there's risk to the pace of operating leverage going forward and thus investors will have less confidence in what has historically been a solid margin expansion story.
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Exceptional idiosyncratic short opportunities emerging from the on/off semi trade that is largely indiscriminately moving the markets and sectors each day. (been long opportunities that emerged too) Private credit exposed names have ripped off financial sector rotation and likely some short squeeze in heavily exposed names - names like $FG $MET $MFC (continue to tout these until their exposure is recognized by the market) Software - each name needs to be looked at on its own accord, the broad software is dead or alive from ai does not work. Big rally across the board has left more disrupted names like $PCTY and $PAYC up for the year now. Plenty of others that look good to build sort positions against (especially if you have long software/dats service provider exposure) Dispersion past quarter should set up some very interesting opportunities that should have to stand on their own fundamentals when earnings come
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

Alpha where you least expect it... Over the past 3-months the FURNITURE space has delivered monster upside relative to the indices. Many of these legacy companies have pristine balance sheets, generate cash, and continue to modestly grow their order books despite the ongoing weakness in housing. These stocks in some cases were trading at close to zero EV ($BSET, $ETD) when including their real estate holdings. They remain cheap and have tons of earnings leverage to a housing upturn. 3-month returns: $BSET 47.7% $BOBS 30.8% $HOFT 17.5% $WSM 17.2% $LZB 14.7% $HVT 13.3% $SPX 6.4%

Investor Letters

All letters

The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb

Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.

STRR $37MHHS $31M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 11 clicks

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $7.7B
The Oak Bloke 16 clicks
ANET · long 2026-05-28

Arista Networks INC

Arista Networks, at about $150 per share, is a $190 billion data-center networking franchise generating $9.7 billion of LTM revenue with…

ANET $254B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks
STRL · short 2026-05-28

Sterling Infrastructure INC

Sterling Infrastructure short pairs STRL against EME and FIX, arguing data-center sitework contractors lack the margin upside available to…

STRL $15B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks
IAC · long 2026-05-28

Iac INC

IAC is simplifying its portfolio around a 33% stake in MGM Resorts International, positioning the holding company for a later-stage…

IAC delisted
Value Investors Club 1 click

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