When extend and pretend is a virtue
Upstart says longer repayment terms lifted Q1 debt-settlement acceptances 50%, but does not disclose delinquency changes or the number of…
Archive
1299 storiesFeb 6, 2025 – May 6, 2025
Tuesday, May 6, 2025 1 story
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 1 story
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just won the massive jumbotron project for the new Titans stadium. Estimated to be $180M. Will be the largest set of displays in the NFL. Bills, Browns stadiums to be announced soon. Wouldn’t be surprised if Mitsubishi acquires them given interest in the category.
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 1 story
Hallador's "Beautiful, Clean Coal": Near Term Catalyst w/ 200% Upside ($HNRG)
Hallador Energy's Merom plant cleared a MISO review, setting up a potential data-center PPA that could transform the coal miner into a…
Monday, April 21, 2025 2 stories
Little Owl Research on X
With contract disputes and litigation set to surge, I believe Burford is well positioned to benefit. Struggling firms will increasingly look to shore up capital—Many cannot afford to wait 2+ years to see the case through. $BUR
Little Owl Research on X
Burford’s value prop is high to these firms, and the significant supply spike puts them in a fantastic position to capitalize on the demand for cash. Additionally settlement with Argentine government seems highly likely at this point. Long $BUR
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 1 story
Mural Oncology: Former Spin Turned Broken Biotech
Mural Oncology is a former spin-off biotech now described as broken.
Thursday, April 10, 2025 1 story
Brookfield Corp. - Get a Buck for Fifty Cents
Brookfield Corp. trades at 13.2x 2025 distributable earnings and $45.97 against management’s $91.76 sum-of-the-parts Plan Value, discounted…
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 1 story
catechwilliams on X
$NX 5% of COGS/ direct input costs sourced from China. Tariffs + zero pricing power, high fixed cost structure + only 30% GMs = 25-30% hit to EBIT. Add 4x leverage, declining volumes, ambitious mgmt guidance while integrating a large acquisition is a setup for a trainwreck.
Monday, April 7, 2025 1 story
Comeback Season: Evolv Eyes Positive FCF, 40% ARR Growth, and Reputational Revival in '25 ($EVLV)
Evolv ($EVLV) targets positive free cash flow and 40% ARR growth in 2025 as delayed filings, an FTC resolution, and leadership changes seek…
Friday, March 21, 2025 1 story
Elevation Oncology: Broken Biotech, Slightly Riskier
Elevation Oncology is a broken biotech with a slightly riskier setup.
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 1 story
catechwilliams on X
$AVO calling out the fact that they have been overearning and margins reverting. “experienced normalization of our per unit avocado margins during in Q1.” Noted weak harvest anticipated in Mexcico. $CVGW will be even more adversely impacted by these factors.
Monday, March 10, 2025 1 story
Dun & Bradstreet: Strategic Process Wrapping Up, Cheap Valuation
Dun & Bradstreet’s strategic process is wrapping up as the company trades at a cheap valuation.
Thursday, March 6, 2025 1 story
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.
Saturday, March 1, 2025 1 story
Rusholme Capital on X
Software, semiconductors and financials look expensive, while CDW returned to revenue growth. High-ticket consumer goods and transport are weak, but travel and Canadian housing show strength.
Friday, February 28, 2025 1 story
catechwilliams on X
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
Thursday, February 27, 2025 1 story
CYD and H22 Results First Take:
CYD’s FY24 earnings miss reflected ¥200m of one-offs; adjusted net income reached roughly ¥430m and operating cash flow rose 40%.
Tuesday, February 25, 2025 1 story
Insureco w/ Potential Strat Alts Announcement Soon + 100% Upside on Buyout ($TIPT)
Tiptree ($TIPT) is positioned around a potential Fortegra sale announcement; Fortegra generates substantially all revenue.
Monday, February 24, 2025 1 story
Portfolio Updates
CYD was sold near $21 versus an $11 entry after exceeding a $19.50 target; proceeds moved to H22.SI, whose CYD stake implies $1.30 NAV and…
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 2 stories
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
Yonex (TYO:7906) - Playing the Long Game
Yonex controls 60%+ of global badminton and trades at 8.5x forward EBITDA despite 40% five-year earnings compounding, with buybacks…
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 3 stories
Third Harmonic Bio: Strategic Alternatives, Keeping Options Open on THB335
Third Harmonic Bio is pursuing strategic alternatives while preserving options for its THB335 program.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
Hong Leong Asia: Unveiling Undervalued Gems in CYD’s Parent Company
Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22) has 40% base-case upside, driven by its CYD stake’s data-center opportunity and Singapore-Malaysia…
Thursday, February 6, 2025 1 story
Unpacking eDreams' Capital Markets Day
EDreams nears 7.25 million Prime members and €180 million of Cash EBITDA, marking its shift from an online travel agency to a…
