Under The Hood, Wingstop Inc. ($WING)
Wingstop generates most of its $697 million revenue from franchise royalties across a 3,153-restaurant, 98%-franchised system while…
Sector
Food & Beverage
Everything our editor has picked under this sector, best first.
55 stories
Broken Moats on X
@jonathanmaze Thanks for the insight! I don't live near a Caseys so could not conduct my own taste test but was overlaying wingstop locations on top of Caseys yesterday thinking this could be a growing problem for $WING especially undercut on $
Broken Moats on X
??? Two things can be true at the same time. In that you can have a slow down from weak international travel (administration) domestically, weak lower end consumer, glp, and inflation that is dragging down sales. And yet you can continue to invest in new store counts if the economics of your model are intact AND you have the balance sheet to continue to invest in your business. The competitors you cited besides macro have other issues impacting their ability to invest; PTLO has a serious balance sheet issue SG has an economic model problem... *turns out 18$ salads is a tough business*. Mcdonalds increased store openings in 2008 AND 2009 even as SSS growth was slowing every year 06-09....those investments worked out just fine because the model works. $SHAK SSS still going to print solidly positive for the year while most chains won't this year (and thats without the added store count). Shak has issues, all restaurants are tough and tough to scale and Rob and the cfo are far from Mcdonalds level of execution, but at 1x sales and a +20% restaurant margin model with 4m AUV theres a lot more room to the upside then the downside at current levels. I don't think they get to the dream target of 1500 stores, but that would be a 10x from here, whats the downside, at almost 1x current....30% maybe? I'll take that asymmetric set up. (Entered shares today)
LWAY · long Lifeway Foods INC
Lifeway Foods holds 95% market share in kefir, is growing 20% to 35%, and trades at 12 times projected 2027 earnings as its capex cycle…
COCO · short Vita Coco Company INC
Vita Coco, COCO, is pitched short after a 45% monthly rally, arguing investors are overextrapolating coconut water category growth.
Once Upon A Farm Pbc
Once Upon a Farm (OFRM) makes organic baby food, smoothies and kid snacks using high-pressure processing instead of heat pasteurization.
JBT Marel Corporation
JBT Marel is an enduring food-equipment business with low AI risk, automation upside and favorable GLP-1 exposure.
Puregold Price Club INC
PureGold Price Club, the Philippines’ largest food retailer, operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, minimarts and S&R membership warehouses.
Connor Haley on X
This morning, Alta Fox published a press release and full thesis deck on $PBH CN (Premium Brands Holdings), a business we believe is significantly undervalued with 75%+ upside in our base case. The materials outline our investment thesis and highlight specific steps management can take to help close the discount to intrinsic value. Press release: https://t.co/gggqD1X7vZ Full deck: https://t.co/ZHKQmeWhmO
How We Made 233% Trading a Starbucks Condiment Bar
A Kalshi contract on whether Starbucks would mention “condiment bar” on its earnings call rose from 30 cents to $1 after the term went…
Mispriced Kalshi Contract: Condiment Bar
Kalshi’s 76% contract price for Starbucks saying “condiment bar” on its next earnings call exceeds a transcript-based estimate of 31.6%.
National Beverage Update
National Beverage’s rare share repurchase is framed as a buy signal, with 50% upside projected.
Little Owl Research on X
Last week $RAVE put up +22% EPS on 8% SSS growth in a miserable operating environment. Pizza Inn AUV is approaching $1.4m. There are 12 new units expected to come online in FY26, and 31 franchisee agreements in the pipeline, starting from a base of 79 units. They currently have $10.4m in cash and no debt. The enterprise value is $32m. The earnings yield to enterprise value (excluding interest income) currently sits at 8% at a time when the 10-year yields 4.10%. If you want to learn more about the company, I highly recommend listening to the interview CEO Brandon Solano did with Bloomberg in early September. https://t.co/HP7g083zHN
Little Owl Research on X
$RAVE “The ‘I ate at Pizza Inn’ restaurants experienced a 30.6% year over year sales lift and a 34.7% traffic lift for the final eight weeks of the fourth quarter… have completed eleven reimages and the reimage results continue to be very positive. We opened new…” 1/2
catechwilliams on X
$AVO calling out the fact that they have been overearning and margins reverting. “experienced normalization of our per unit avocado margins during in Q1.” Noted weak harvest anticipated in Mexcico. $CVGW will be even more adversely impacted by these factors.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Mexico tariffs likely a negotiating tactic but if enacted would be catastrophic for $CVGW which sources >90% of its avocados from MX. A 25% premium would render MX avocados uncompetitive, drive sourcing of the commodity to South American producers. $CVGW has 0 SA presence.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW. Another red flag. CFO departing after just 2 years w CEO's old buddy as replacement. Massively over-earnings w volumes continuing to decline from lost customers and margins reverting lower.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW RFG sale is delayed again (latest 10-Q stated will close end of July). This is the 3rd delay. Now unlikely to close at all. Will require a restatement of the last 2 quarters, revealing much lower earnings (likely negative EPS, negative FCF). https://t.co/lVsZZT37Cf
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW USDA crackdown on Mexican avocado corruption significantly erroding import vols (region where $CVGW sources all product). S. America taking share at accelerating rate as customers (ie. $CMG, grocers) shift suppliers. $CVGW sales vol -13% MRQ. Current Q could be a disaster. https://t.co/KJgK8fXbM4
catechwilliams on X
@Mike10947310 $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocados from Michoacan, MX. $CMG purchases ~10% of tot US avocados. Its latest ESG report noted “diversifying away from Mexican suppliers.” This latest drama down there will almost certainly accelerate sourcing away from $CVGW, etc.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Bloomberg: USDA halting avocado shipments from Michoacan, Mexico following threats to inspection officers. $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocado from Michoacan. Potentially related to FCPA investigation given agencies involved. https://t.co/j15wm3bbIa
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Problems intensifying, another promised deadline passes. The RFG sale announced in Dec w CEO Cole stating “it will close within a month.” April AGM, he declared “I’m 100% sure it will close in May, likely sooner!” This guy has zero credibility and is borderline pathological https://t.co/Hg7gVfxeEF
