Ally Financial: The Next Vintage
Ally Financial's Q2 FY26 consumer auto originations rose 21% to $13.3 billion as newer, 9%+ yield vintages replace troubled 2022 loans;…
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Weekend Digest 351: Market Volatility, TFSL, Roper, Booz Allen, TIPS Vs. Treasury Bonds
AI momentum trades are unwinding as leveraged products amplify volatility; TFS Financial offers a 7.5% yield on cost and potential upside…
BDC on X
I think the worry is that the committed capex toward current RPO could be in excess of the demand that the market will ultimately finance. Demand is there now. But capital financing is getting more expensive and Frontier lab revenues better keep ripping. In $meta case they really need to pivot on their excess capacity
Ian Bezek on X
@TidefallCapital I think macro beer is still deeply challenged, though I own a little bit of $TAP and $ABEV. I'm much more confident spirits will recover.
JabroniCoin.USD on X
“Huawei’s report on its progress gave Ding leeway to be more aggressive. He delivered a blunt warning to China’s largest AI users, according to people familiar with the message: Anyone who resisted employing domestic chips was a traitor.” $ACMR https://t.co/2DDOgMTQEW
Texas Instruments 2Q'26: Not Another Head Fake
Texas Instruments’ 2Q’26 revenue grew 23% year over year and 13% sequentially, supporting management’s view that pricing and demand have…
BDC on X
Remember the good ole days when covering internet meant you just needed to have a view on: - If $GOOGL Search was going to accelerate or decelerate and what the opex was likely to be - $META fxn ad revs...how big a beat? Opex? - $NFLX are they going to beat on subs? - $AMZN AWS to accelerate? How much? Margins? EBIT guide? - $BKNG room nights ! I started my career covering these companies and a bunch of other internets....at that time capex was not something we cared about bc it didn't matter. It was a simpler time.
Netflix: Deep Dive Analysis
Netflix's Q3 guidance points to sub-12% growth as viewing hours rise about 2%, increasing reliance on pricing, paid sharing and advertising.
BDC on X
@FrostByte123456 Yes. $GOOGL needs to feed TWO capex intensive businesses: 1. Search (Gemeni) and 2. Cloud. $AMZN needs to only feed one, which is AWS.
BDC on X
$SNAP will generate more FCF this year than $GOOGL and maybe more than the hyperscalers combined in the 2H ex MSFT! Just sayin...
Clark Square Capital on X
Good, solid quarter from $BWMX https://t.co/rRzlwT85tX
Netflix: Below forward 20 PE Ratio for one of the best companies in the world
Netflix trades below 20 times forward earnings despite $51 billion in revenue, 31.5% guided operating margin and ad revenue expected to…
PayPal, Declined
Stripe and Advent’s reported $53 billion bid for PayPal follows a decade in which Stripe’s payment volume outgrew PayPal’s Braintree.
TSOH Weekly Roundup (07/24/2026)
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers the Paramount-Warner court block, Xbox Game Pass’s subscriber shortfall and pricing reset, and Red Bull’s 28%…
Tesla and SpaceX's Likely Merger, Portfolio Change
Tesla and SpaceX are increasingly integrated through Terafab, Optimus, Grok and Starlink, strengthening the case for a merger to pool…
BDC on X
Good point here re how OBBB flatters cash flow. $GOOGL https://t.co/MkSPZ5NNOZ
JabroniCoin.USD on X
$THC smoked the hospital narrative and HCA, with a beat, raise and $2 Bn additional buyback. Bears might not be ambulatory for long… https://t.co/Jqp3snqr1l
marginofdanger on X
$FPH mentions on call they are currently talking to anchor tenants for the 2.8mm sf of R&D/tech-dedicated entitlements for Candlestick. Not many options for contiguous brand new space in SF. Would be interesting if they secured a whale like Anthropic, OpenAI or Databricks.
JabroniCoin.USD on X
As usual with Hemingway, the last three sentences here are key $ACMR https://t.co/GhNV2Ci8IM
BDC on X
@kermankohli GCP is baked into $GOOGL's price already. $META's cloud optionality is obviously not. You may prefer the known thing but its the unknown things that over much more asymmetry.
PAA Research on X
I guess it's time to sharpen my pencil a bit on $TSCO. The stock has been a disaster to say the least and the chart could not look worse. However, the company lowered guidance and it's trading up modestly in a pretty tough tape. This was once a great growth story/compounder. Is it finally washed out? Watching.
Ian Bezek on X
@InvestsCletus That's probably part of it. Day like today $CIB up $AVAL down would play toward that idea.
BDC on X
$mRna shots don't work either but it has a $25B market cap. https://t.co/vvreFW1UpQ
BDC on X
This is obviously unsustainable. The larger the gap, the worse the crash. Semis are printing cash now - but for a buyer and seller relationship to be healthy over a long time, everyone, both sides, needs to make $. I think $AMZN can make $ because their flagship business sells compute capacity and their capex ramp has funded more capacity to sell. $META can work because their flagship biz benefits from internal AI and they may in fact have excess compute capacity to sell - which is a positive pivot. $GOOGL is less clear to me. Their flagship biz is soaking up internal compute because new entrants in search, gPT for one, have $750B in capex earmarked - not to sell compute but to improve their own frontier capabilities. At the same time, $GOOGL's external compute biz is going to do great - but in this theater they are also competing with AMZN/MSFT etc. So for $GOOGL there's no pivot opportunity akin to $META and there's 2x the capex need as the arms race accelerates for both internal and external needs.
