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4920 stories about companies over $300M

@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

LendingTree ($TREE) Upside: ~120% to ~$54. Assumes 7x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance ($148.5 million), less ~$280 million of net debt, across 14.0 million shares. The stock currently trades at about 4x. LendingTree is the largest U.S. online marketplace connecting consumers with lenders and insurers. The stock has fallen 65% from its high, first on a Q2 earnings miss and lowered guidance, then in September on a Wall Street Journal report about Meta’s “Muse” AI agent, which investors fear could let consumers shop for loans and insurance without visiting a marketplace. At $24.43, TREE trades at roughly 4x enterprise value to 2026 EBITDA guidance of $145–152 million. The AI fear overlooks two things. First, insurance is now about two-thirds of revenue ($209 million in Q2, up 42%), paid by carriers buying leads regardless of where the search starts. Second, loan brokering requires state licensing and fraud controls; management notes that ChatGPT and Gemini declined to process loan applications and referred users to marketplaces including LendingTree. Net leverage has fallen from 5.3x in 2023 to 1.9x, removing the balance-sheet risk that once hung over the stock. The disintermediation risk is real, but a 4x multiple prices in a lot of it.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Farmer Mac ($AGM) Upside: ~28% to ~$265. Assumes 2027 core EPS of ~$22 (Q2 run-rate excluding a one-time $7.4 million interest recovery, growing ~12%) at 12x. Farmer Mac is the government-sponsored secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans, the “Fannie Mae of the farm.” The stock fell 12% in February after a Q4 earnings miss and has not fully recovered. At $206.92, AGM trades at about 10.5x normalized core EPS and roughly 1.8x book value, for a business with a 19% core ROE and record Q2 core earnings of $5.40 per share (+24%). The underappreciated shift is in mix. Rural infrastructure is now one of the fastest-growing parts of the business: broadband volume grew 58% and renewable energy 55% in Q2, at net effective spreads of 2.30% and 1.72%, versus 1.01% on traditional farm and ranch loans. As higher-spread infrastructure lending becomes a bigger share of $37.2 billion in total volume, Farmer Mac’s spread should expand. Its GSE status lets it fund at near-agency rates. Tier 1 capital is a healthy 13.2%.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Enova International ($ENVA) Upside: ~30% to ~$215. Assumes 2027 adjusted EPS of ~$19.50 (Q2 run-rate of ~$17 growing ~15%) at 11x. Enova is an online lender to non-prime consumers and small businesses. Shares fell from $227 to $167 in September after Enova withdrew its $369 million bid to acquire Grasshopper Bank, following opposition from 20 state attorneys general and two senators who argued the deal was designed to escape state rate caps. At $167.11, ENVA trades at about 10x annualized Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.31. The sell-off treats the bank charter as if it were in the earnings base, but it was option value; the core business is performing. Q2 adjusted EPS grew 33%, originations rose 27% to a record $2.3 billion, and net charge-offs improved to 7.3% from 8.1%. CEO Steve Cunningham stated that Enova’s “future growth and success do not depend on becoming a bank.” The episode also matters for peers: it shows charter acquisitions by non-bank lenders face real political resistance, a read-across for OppFi’s pending BNC National Bank deal. Enova repurchased $19 million of stock in Q2.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

Blue Owl Capital Corporation ($OBDC) Upside: ~34% total return. Assumes the shares re-rate to 0.90x NAV ($12.83, +22%) plus a ~12% dividend yield. Blue Owl Capital Corporation is one of the largest business development companies (BDCs), with a $15 billion portfolio of loans to sponsor-backed middle-market companies. The stock has fallen on contagion from its manager, Blue Owl, which gated redemptions at a retail credit fund and sold assets amid fears that AI will disrupt the software companies private credit lends to. At $10.49, OBDC trades at 0.74x NAV of $14.26 and yields 11.8% on its $0.31 base dividend, which is covered by adjusted net investment income of $0.34. A detail in the credit disclosures suggests the marks are already conservative: non-accruals rose to 2.8% at cost but fell to 0.8% at fair value, meaning troubled loans have been written down hard. With 73% of the portfolio in first-lien debt and leverage at a two-year low of 1.11x, the market price implies losses far beyond what the marks show. Every share OBDC buys back at a 26% discount adds to NAV per share, and it repurchased $35 million in Q2. The risk to watch is a shrinking portfolio: repayments ($747 million) outran new commitments ($319 million) last quarter.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Encore Capital Group ($ECPG) Upside: ~30% to ~$124. Assumes 2027 EPS of ~$15.50 (2026 guidance midpoint of $13.50 plus the $1.00 non-recurring refinancing cost, growing ~7%) at 8x. Encore Capital is the largest buyer of defaulted consumer debt in the U.S., operating as Midland Credit Management, and in Europe through Cabot. The stock has more than doubled from its low, yet still trades at just 7x the midpoint of raised 2026 EPS guidance of $13–14 at $94.44. The less appreciated point is that Encore is a counter-cyclical business. Rising credit card charge-offs, the same trend that worries investors in lenders like OneMain, create more supply for Encore to buy at better prices. That’s why U.S. purchases hit a record $372 million in Q2 and collections rose 17%. Estimated remaining collections of $10.2 billion are about 2.4x its $4.2 billion of debt, and the May refinancing should save about $15 million of interest a year. Encore repurchased $27 million of stock in Q2, reducing diluted shares to 22.8 million from 23.6 million a year ago.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Atlanticus ($ATLC) Upside: ~35% to ~$120. Assumes 2027 EPS of ~$12 (H1 2026 run-rate of ~$10 growing ~20%, consistent with management’s 20%+ ROE target) at 10x. Atlanticus is a technology-driven lender serving near-prime consumers through private-label and general-purpose credit cards. The stock fell 13% after a Q2 beat, as investors focused on rising interest expense ($123 million versus $54 million a year ago) and integration risk from the ~$3 billion Mercury card portfolio. At $87.53, ATLC trades at about 9x annualized 2026 EPS and roughly 2.3x common book value, for a business earning a 28% return on equity. The footnotes show why reported earnings understate the economics. Atlanticus carries its receivables at fair value, currently 96.6% of face, so expected lifetime losses are marked upfront when loans are booked. Rapid growth therefore depresses near-term earnings rather than flattering them, the opposite of most lenders, where growth front-loads interest income and back-loads losses. Excluding Mercury, managed receivables still grew 26%, and the company added 790,000 new customers in the quarter. Management has guided that Mercury product and pricing changes will add meaningful revenue over the next several quarters.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

OppFi (OneMain Holdings ($OMF) is the largest installment lender to non-prime consumers in the U.S. The stock has fallen from the high $60s on fears that sticky inflation and slowing wage growth will squeeze its borrowers, a worry crystallized by JPMorgan’s downgrade to Underweight. At $55.39, the regular dividend alone yields about 7.6%, and Q2 capital generation of $229 million annualizes to roughly $0.9 billion. That’s a mid-teens yield on the market cap for a lender earning 20%+ returns on new loans. The bears miss that OneMain’s credit problem is shrinking. Loans originated before management tightened underwriting in August 2022 now make up only about 4% of the portfolio but roughly 12% of 30+ day delinquencies, so losses should keep improving as that book runs off. Every new loan is still underwritten with a 30% stress overlay and must clear a 20% return-on-equity hurdle. Management reiterated 2026 charge-off guidance of 7.4–7.9% and expects improvement into 2027. Meanwhile, the BrightWay credit card (1.3 million accounts, charge-offs down 186bps year over year) and auto finance (receivables up 14%) are diversifying growth.OPFI) is a tech-enabled installment lender to consumers underserved by banks. Shares have nearly halved this year after OppFi cut 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $1.76–1.84 to $1.34–1.51, as delays in its LOLA platform migration and line-of-credit launch weighed on originations. At $6.03, the stock trades at about 4x the midpoint of revised 2026 guidance and 2x management’s reaffirmed target of roughly $3 of EPS by 2028. The headline charge-off spike is partly arithmetic: originations fell 9% as underwriting tightened, and with fewer new loans in the denominator, the ratio rises. Management expects a return to growth in the second half. The overlooked catalyst is OppFi’s pending acquisition of BNC National Bank, filed with the OCC and targeted to close in Q4. A national charter would let OppFi lend directly instead of through partner banks, removing its biggest regulatory overhang, the “true lender” challenges states use against bank-partnership lenders. OppFi has authorized a $40 million buyback.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

GAMCO Investors ($GAMI) is the value-investing asset manager founded by Mario Gabelli, with $36.6 billion of AUM. The shares trade at a steep discount largely because of structure, not operations: GAMCO voluntarily left the NYSE for the OTCQX market, which puts it outside most indexes and institutional mandates. Its public float is small, and voting control sits with non-traded Class B shares held by Gabelli’s family entity. At $25.32, GAMCO holds $231 million of cash and investments with no debt, about $11 per share, or more than 40% of the market cap. With Q2 EPS of $1.07 (up from $0.93 on 13% revenue growth), the stock trades at about 6x annualized earnings, and the operating business excluding cash at roughly 3–4x. Part of its AUM sits in closed-end funds, permanent capital that cannot be redeemed, which makes the fee stream stickier than a typical active manager’s. Key-person risk around Mr. Gabelli is real, and the recent addition of Christopher Marangi to the board supports succession.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

Radian ($RDN) is a leading U.S. private mortgage insurer that is reshaping itself into a global specialty insurer through its $1.7 billion acquisition of Lloyd’s carrier Inigo, closed in February. Investors are skeptical of the pivot: Q2 missed estimates as a $30 million reserve charge tied to Middle East exposure pushed Inigo’s combined ratio to 97.7%. At $30.61, RDN trades at about 0.85x book value of $36 and roughly 7x annualized operating earnings of $1.14 per quarter. The core mortgage book is better than ever: primary insurance in force hit a record $284 billion, and higher rates keep policies in force longer because fewer borrowers refinance. Radian still holds $1.45 billion of capital above the mortgage insurance standard (PMIERs), 37% above requirements, and excluding the one-off charge, specialty margins were in the high 80s. Book value grew 8.5% year over year, and buybacks are tracking toward the top of the $200–250 million target.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Virtus Investment Partners ($VRTS) is a multi-boutique asset manager with $152 billion of AUM. The stock has fallen about 20% since August as quality-style equity strategies suffered $14.1 billion of year-to-date outflows. At $132.29, VRTS trades at about 6x annualized adjusted EPS of $5.54 with a ~7% dividend yield, and net debt is just 0.9x EBITDA. The less obvious fact: Virtus’s average fee rate rose to 43.1bps from 41.3bps a year ago despite outflows. Lower-fee equity assets are leaving, while higher-fee alternatives ($19.7 billion of AUM) and ETFs are growing, including the 56% stake in private-credit manager Keystone, acquired in March. One caveat from the footnotes: the noncontrolling interest liability jumped to $152.5 million, largely Keystone, which signals a future obligation to buy the remaining equity. Buybacks have shrunk the share count to 6.6 million.
@calvinblissett 4 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

Alexander’s ($ALX) is a Vornado-managed REIT whose crown jewel is 731 Lexington Avenue, where Bloomberg leases the entire office condominium through 2040. The stock trades below asset value because of tenant concentration and a gap in Bloomberg cash rent: in March, Bloomberg agreed to swap $56.8 million of its unused tenant-improvement allowance for free rent from April through December 2026. At $246.50, ALX yields over 7% on its regular $18 dividend and trades at a meaningful discount to independent net asset value estimates in the mid-$300s, with cash approaching $100 per share after the Rego Park I sale. The free-rent period is less damaging than it looks: the abatement is funded from a lender reserve that covers debt service, and full rent resumes in December. ALX sold the vacant Rego Park I to Northwell Health for $235.5 million in May, at roughly double some prior estimates of its value, booking a ~$148 million gain. The sale generated about $97 million of taxable gain in 2026, which REIT distribution rules likely force out as a special dividend.
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

"I don't know of any other system that's as good… The snapshot it presents is an enormously efficient way for us to garner information about various businesses… I have yet to see a better way, including fooling around on the internet, that gives me the information as quickly." -Warren E Buffett on Value Line. I will do deep dives on the 2 opportunities you guys are most interested in. I think $GAMI, $ALX and $TREE (due to the narrative) are the most itneresting.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

Reposting because of the amount of work I put into this and how quality of an opportunity I think it is. A 300bps rate hike affects 9% of NI. I think Wall Street still thinks it’s same old keep every loan or wholesale interest rate sensitive $SLM. Not giving them credit at a LTM 5.8x multiple for the new expanding TAM and Capital light partnership model. Just like it took Wall Street ages to figure out $FNMA in the early 80s when Lynch was accumulating every share he could.
@convequity 8 clicks

Convequity on X

We think the gross margin gap between Cerebras ($CBRS) and NVIDIA ($NVDA) says little about which company delivers compute more cheaply. Cerebras reported a 14% gross margin in Q2 2026, against roughly 75% for NVIDIA. That is not a clean comparison, because Cerebras's commercial agreements include customer warrants. A customer warrant gives a buyer of Cerebras compute the right to buy Cerebras shares at an agreed price, adding potential equity upside to the compute it purchases. Cerebras records the value of these incentives over time as a reduction in revenue. Its cost of delivering the compute stays the same, so the full amount comes out of gross profit and its reported gross margin falls too. Add the warrants and a few other items back and Cerebras's Q2 margin was 41%, so the reported gap tells us little about what each company spends to deliver equivalent compute. Cerebras could challenge NVIDIA with attractive economics on selected workloads without matching every capability of NVIDIA's platform. In our view NVIDIA's stronger answer is Feynman reaching customers on schedule with the 3D-stacked SRAM we expect. Stacking more fast memory close to the compute would reduce the need to fetch data from slower external memory, helping NVIDIA narrow the architectural advantage behind Cerebras's fast inference. NVIDIA's adoption of Groq technology could ease some of this pressure, but we believe Groq's current architecture remains weaker than Cerebras's for low-latency inference. The longer Feynman takes to arrive at scale, the more time Cerebras has to win customers.