Google’s AI Return on Investment
Alphabet’s $132 billion AI capex produced an estimated 49% post-tax incremental ROIC once only in-service assets are counted, versus a…
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Alphabet’s $132 billion AI capex produced an estimated 49% post-tax incremental ROIC once only in-service assets are counted, versus a…
Dispersion trade creating opportunities of fundamentals not matching price: $FDS now higher than the before SaaS (apocalypse) took off. Hard to argue they are not one of the most disrupted names across data services / software $PAYC $PCTY $WDAY - same challenges across software names and pricing / seat pressures. These names also face heavy increased competition from Rippling $EXPE - Hotels going direct has already started and OTAs should see supply pressure and take rate pressure $RNG - Does anyone legitimately believe they're an AI play? Agents don't need calls, don't need phones, and you don't need RNG to provide those agents - especially as every sb and up software provider and crm/erp Many others across software but also in financials, industrials and consumer
DoorDash built a last-mile logistics network around restaurant delivery, then extended it to groceries, convenience, and other local…
DoorDash positions itself as infrastructure for local commerce.
CME Group trades at 21.7 times trailing earnings versus a 25.1 times 12-month average, despite near-record futures volume and 94%…
$AGYS does not see negative impact of AI on enterprise software companies, argues that they are "seeing the opposite effect." Also notes the cost/benefit analysis favors software subscriptions vs. investing in expensive AI development. https://t.co/W4qnsF26r4
Shelly Group $SLYG has exercised a Call Option for the acquisition of the remaining stake of 24 % of the share capital in its Slovenian IoT subsidiary Shelly Tech. The total purchase price for the 24%-stake under the exercised Call Option is EUR 0.9 million. https://t.co/qlSBzPVtnU
I pitched $ORCL at $285 as a short last October at my conference. Now at $120 think it is intriguing as a long… https://t.co/8QB7O3VSoH
@retaox The $CHTR broadband offering is much more competitively priced today due to tech upgrades, limited pricing increases in recent years, aggressive retention incentives, and investments into the video/wireless bundle.
Shorted a bunch of $AAPL and bought puts over last few days. Seems very overbought (was it a funding short?) and at a good level to find resistance. Edge AI models should ultimately be good for $AAPL, but company still has grossly mismanaged the AI opp and memory is a headwind.
The capex spend is mind boggling, but I held my nose and bought $META today around $590-600 I don’t how the AI bet will shake out, but I do know that… - $META Reels is sucking up engagement share from everyone, even $NFLX - $GOOG search refers are in free fall, which should benefit $META’s ad network - Zuck is the best owner-operator in the business who is willing to pivot if necessary - There are tremendous AI cost efficiency opps in core $META operations (Note: I have a long and fruitful history with $META and my family members still own their shares going back to 2013, knock on wood)
I’m now very bullish on $CMCSA as well. In my view, Peacock/NBCU/theme parks are likely worth around the current market cap alone. Importantly, Peacock / NBC are now competitively advantaged in sports media thanks to a superior combination of reach with their NBC broadcast network and their scaled streaming platform. Comcast Cable is struggling, but they have frontloaded a lot of pain; wireless and the bundle is a growth engine; and the balance sheet is actually a strength (not a weakness). Plus, the 6% dividend pays you to wait for the spin in 2027.
Not the greatest quarter but no change in my $CHTR view, although I did sell some of my October calls today. Owning common and LEAPs are most interesting now. The Cox acquisition should close in mid- to late-August, which I view as a catalyst for analysts and investors to revisit their models. $CHTR is now trading at around 2x pro forma 2028 FCF per share, with incredible balance sheet optionality (which they have started to monetize via buybacks and swaps at a discount). I also think $CHTR has front-loaded a lot of ARPU pain and invested heavily to stabilize video in recent years. While broadband will remain challenged, I don’t believe the worst case scenarios and think wireless growth and pricing can provide a valuable offset.
I’ve been legging into $AMD short https://t.co/XWmhyYgpFC
$NN An investor bought 5,000 Sept $15 option contracts today for $1.40. Assuming shares were $25 post NPRM, these have a 7x return or an implied 15% chance of happening. I think at $1.40, these options were priced far below intrinsic value. I like this trade very much. Very smart
Resideo will spin off lower-margin ADI Global distribution after ending its $1.59 billion Honeywell indemnity, separating manufacturing and…
Adobe generates 96% of revenue from subscriptions and converts over 40% into free cash flow, but generative AI tests whether Creative…
Hmmm so what happens to China WFE and local semicap? $ACMR https://t.co/zCLlueeF3O
Uber’s hybrid-network proposal would keep AVs and human drivers on its dispatch platform, while Waymo and Tesla pursue vertically…
Caris Life Sciences, CAI, uses AI-trained molecular oncology data for therapy selection and multi-cancer early detection, with 97% of…
Ally Financial's Q2 FY26 consumer auto originations rose 21% to $13.3 billion as newer, 9%+ yield vintages replace troubled 2022 loans;…
AI momentum trades are unwinding as leveraged products amplify volatility; TFS Financial offers a 7.5% yield on cost and potential upside…
I think the worry is that the committed capex toward current RPO could be in excess of the demand that the market will ultimately finance. Demand is there now. But capital financing is getting more expensive and Frontier lab revenues better keep ripping. In $meta case they really need to pivot on their excess capacity
@TidefallCapital I think macro beer is still deeply challenged, though I own a little bit of $TAP and $ABEV. I'm much more confident spirits will recover.