Apollo and what even is private credit?
Apollo’s Marc Rowan argues private-credit risk depends on underwriting, seniority, leverage and diversification, not whether a bank or fund…
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Apollo’s Marc Rowan argues private-credit risk depends on underwriting, seniority, leverage and diversification, not whether a bank or fund…
Grt🧵on $GSK's cancer biz. But IMHO GSK cant max their ROI b/c $ANAB can block GSK from partnering w/ other PD1s like $MRK's Keytruda. Trial is 7/14 & GSK could lose 100% of JEMPERLI which IMHO is ~10% of GSK's mkt cap. I think GSK settles or buys ANAB for big $$$. Disc: Long https://t.co/N4Rls7h63Z https://t.co/04Zx6UdUwi
$BSX ?? flat over the past 5 years. Can point to slowing growth from very elevated levels as farapulse and watchman have larger bases, some competition entering these spaces, glp1 on the margin to case loads over time, new inhibitors that could be coming from Lilly, novo, but at current $ sure seems like a lot is baked in at current prices. Innovative cardio franchise that has: Revenue has effectively doubled - predominately from farapulse and watchman (not m&a) Operating income 1.8B to 4.1B EBIT - $1.4B to 4.1B 3.5x on EPS (.69 to $2.40/share current) gross, operating, net, ebit, ebitda margins all expanded over that timeframe FCF more than 2x, opcf 2.5x The difference is you get to buy it at the same share price today, shares outstanding are virtually flat. Perhaps the defensive nature of medtech is sold in the aggressive risk on market we are in but growth still solid here with dividend and margin of safety versus other areas certainly seems worth a look, as is the rest of medtech as a place to hunt for value to wait until the market rotates back
Pretty incredible market sells off software again aggressively at the same time ramping up public private credit exposed names like $MFC, $ARES, $FG (CEO left suddenly yesterday) all because they ride alongside the aggressive buying in money center banks in financial etc flows ($JPM up 14% in June). Seems like there needs to be some dispersion in public private credit and software - one side at current prices has to be wrong, guessing private credit lower is how the dispersion resolves itself
While I'm quick to criticize @elonmusk and how he manages the Street (another area where he's clearly brilliant), but this interview is one of the many reasons why he deserves our universal respect for all that he's accomplished and what he could do for humanity going forward. THIS INTERVIEW IS ALMOST 20-YEARS OLD! $SPCX $TSLA https://t.co/uNjq2u089f
@BillAckman Literally every asset that’s managed by you including $HHH $PSHZF and now $PSUS has always traded at a discount. Why would this one be any different?
This is the "funding secured" moment for $SPCX. Will it matter for @elonmusk or the company? Probably not. We've been down this path before and the SEC blinked when there was a moment to enforce the rules we have in place with $TSLA. No question that no other executive gets away with this aside from Elon. This is a clear violation of the "quiet period" surrounding IPOs. To me the more interesting question is: why does Elon feel the need to provide 2030 guidance for his company a couple of days after the first trading day for $SPCX?
Rollins ($ROL) pairs automatically renewing pest-control contracts with route density and family-business acquisitions, producing 24…
Is the price action in every other space related company today a cautionary tale for $SPCX as to what could happen with $MAGS and other tech leaders when #anthropic and #OpenAI go public later this year or does it simply reflect an uninspired pricing on $SPCX and a stock that might not be up in the absence of $GS support? $RKLB $LUNR $ASTS $PL $RDW
what part of the cycle is it when CAVA starts going up 30% in a week on no news? Screwworm, savings rate declines, ridiculous valuation, and unwanted then a 30% snap in 3 days? Bizarre market moves. $TGT, the private credit exposed names like $ARES, etc all similar relentless moves from late in the week
What’s the $BR mega bear case?
$QXO gang anyone have a current cap table, wanted to run some numbers but its hard to keep up with all the issuance/debt offerings.... Pro forma suggests there is around 1.1B shares outstanding? (will that include all the financing to get Topbuild closed (I believe so)? + around $8B in net debt (pro forma) So at $14 a share - that would be roughly $23B EV value? Anyone confirm this or tell me which pieces are wrong (for Kodiak, beacon and Topbuild) Roughly $2B EBITDA off their press release (probably up for debate, rates/economy, then need to look how much synergies might be backed into that) So 4x leveraged (means likely more shares need to get issued to de-risk especially with interest rate risks and transmission to demand) so 11.5x with mote dilution (likely).....getting close but not there yet - still think you need to wait for 10x or < Last and most important question does the math around Beacon change - 15x is meaty for a distributor multiple so unlikely they walk. But with the 45/55 split (is there floor conditions or will TopBuild eat that difference if/when they vote later this month (if not anyone know what the break fee is). Thanks in advance
I call this the "LLOK" trade (Lower Leg of the K). This is a really interesting non-consensus thematic opportunity, dare I call it contrarian (if you're old enough to remember when that was a preferred approach to alpha generation). Investors have been quick to dismiss anything resembling a LLOK trade, but look what's happened in the past few weeks: $DLTR, $CASY, $CBRL, $PENN, $PRKS all massively outperforming in the past month. I'll include my beloved $CAKE in this group. Yes, some of that is factor rotation, but employment tailwinds for this consumer set might be better as a result of data center CAPEX/reindustrialization, and the "sell these names on gas prices" trade couldn't be hackneyed analysis. Finally, follow @TiberiusCapital, he's one of the best investors I know.
$LLY has nlrp3 trials so that would just put them in the same conversation no with a head start? Agree its valuable to NVO but wouldn't the derivatives like a $BIOA get more juice of ZEUS then $NVO from validating the space. I like NVO but management shoots themselves in the foot constantly and AZN etc competition on weight loss is coming
Fiserv trades below 7 times 2026 earnings after a 60% decline, as new management resets guidance and seeks to stabilize its banking…
@YodeLeaheyWho Sorry yes, I always think of $MS as Musk's banker. $GS will have its hands full
This infographic looks hugely bearish to me and clearly I'm not the only one seeing it that way. That bar chart in the middle looks like a disaster as does allocating 30% of this deal to retail. Being multiple times oversubscribed is not what people want to hear at this point. How many guys put in orders expecting to get one-tenth or 1-20th of their ask? If those funds get filled at higher levels, you can expect $MS to really extend its balance sheet tomorrow to prevent this from breaking issue. Maybe the book really fills in over the next 30 hours, but usually if a deal's hot you would see stronger orders at this point. The $MS equity capital markets team has a long few days ahead. $SPCX
$MTN is the $FICO of consumer discretionary.
@firstadopter any thoughts or expectations heading into $NTDOY's #NintendoDirect event?
Verisk’s exit from healthcare, financial-services and energy data restored a pure-play insurance analytics model, but D.E.
If/when @altcap and $NVDA sell their shares in the next year or two, how is this different then what Andrew left did twitting a thesis and going to do the opposite shortly after?? That was deemed illegal and I am sure there they'll blame some event in the near future that disrupted their thesis, etc but this feels no different then self promotion in the opposite direction Bigger issue is existing shareholders from dramatically lower prices going on a retail oriented TV program to hype their holdings to buy in at inflated prices is blatantly perfidious and morally bankrupt. Bookmark this for when they sellout. Amazon ipo at a $438m valuation and Google at a $27B valuation by law of large numbers his statement is already categorically false unless all of GDP will be produced by these 3 companies
Is there a company that has employed a more "prisoner of the moment" approach to capital allocation than $META?
CrowdStrike’s $318 million quarterly stock compensation and payroll taxes equaled 23% of revenue, diluting shareholders while non-GAAP…
LULU · long Lululemon Athletica, a high-end women’s sportswear retailer, is presented as a long investment.