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Wednesday, September 16

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Everything we published on this day.

61 stories — the front page that day →

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Given what is happening with most housing related stocks including Floor & Decor $FND and $QXO, I would have expected to see more insider buying at these companies but that is yet to materialize. We did see the home builder D.R. Horton $DHI increase its stock buyback authorization by an additional $5 billion yesterday (nearly 13% of market cap). The last insider purchase at the company was in 2014. With mortgage rates going up, it might be too early to get into this industry but I am starting to get interested.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Waystar $WAY putting itself up for sale just a little over two years after it went public at $21.50 is surprising to me. I used their product when I used to work in healthcare services. As most startups in healthcare services eventually realize, the money is often made on the backend RCM (revenue cycle management) side of things. Waystar is an essential link between hospitals/clinics and insurance companies helping with claims processing and rejections. Think of them like a midstream oil pipeline company connecting the independent oil & gas producers with refiners. They have hired Evercore $EVR and Barclays $BCS is also advising. The stock is down more than 30% over the last year even after accounting for the pop after this sale announcement. Feels like the baby being thrown out with the SaaS bathwater. The financials however look strong to me whether you consider improving gross margin, free cash flow that is better than net income most quarters or stable debt on the balance sheet. Revenue grew 18% year-over-year last quarters and net margin was nearly 13%. So not a GAAP unprofitable SaaS company that is giving way most of the value to employees through stock-based compensation. I'll have to dig into competitive dynamics and understand the business better. What am I missing?

Research Roundup Vol. LII

Dell’s AI-server demand and Microchip’s data-center components lead updates on Cirrus Logic and STMicroelectronics, alongside a weekly…

DELL $302BCRUS $5.7B
Monte Independent Investment Research 1 click

A2Gold: Research Note

A2Gold's McIntosh drilling found 0.23 g/t gold over 65.5m, 370m southwest of the existing resource, and extended mineralization 86m…

KGC $27B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks
@MaiusPartners

Maius on X

Full disclosure: Have closed out the Kimi idea to concentrate LLM exposure in what we think is the most mispriced remaining proxy on the list: $META. The fact that someone could have identified the potential in any of these LLMs, yet still lost money investing in nearly all of them over the last few months shows how difficult the game is for secondary market investors. And as capital flows into the sector increase, the game will not be getting any easier from here.
@BlueDuckCap 2 clicks

BDC on X

Maybe this earlier post is hyperbolic. But Specs potential is real and the applications are very real and the implied value to $snap is negative. Btw go back and look at all my snap tweets - been as big a bear as any of you. But the worm is turning. Sub business 85% yy $1b+ rr and ads stable and 16% HC reduction to cut $500mn opex and SBC offset by buyback. So there’s a lot to like here and if specs can get a minority investor which i think is much more likely after today then game on. Oh and by the way snap could still cut opex by 50% just to get in line with $rddt on cost/employee.
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

The trading action in $LEN should be pretty interesting following a disappointing print and underwhelming guidance (albeit not surprising). The stock trades at tangible book value with a 2.5% dividend yield (that used to mean something) and they look set to buyback 5-7% of the shares outstanding annually. They've moved their entire pricing and gross margin model down to meet the market so they can move volumes. They're moving units in Arkansas at $230,000. There's definitely a market at that price point. There's some controversy about their land bank accounting practices from the work of @hntrbrkmedia, but you still have a biz that's not impairing book and generating profits. Insiders own a fair amount, Berkshire bought last quarter. Is there enough bad news here? Is it finally washed out? https://t.co/j7W0oY1pY5
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Good luck today Evan. Ultimately, a home run partnership could be made with $SPCX. Give XAI distribution on SNAP, replacing Perplexity. Offer a bundled Spec's price with Starlink cellular connections. Specs will need direct cellular connections to truly become untethered to Wifi/Phone so as to maximize the human connection without reliance on the other two. Make Specs a potential phone replacement even - not a total replacement as everyone still needs a phone - but give people the ability to go out and about with just their Specs and have all the functionality needed to go about modern life. SPCX has the spectrum needed to make this work.
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

Adestella @AdestellaInvest holds Dell $DELL as its largest position, arguing that agentic AI token costs push routine inference back on-premise, onto Dell servers. “AI-optimized servers such as Dell’s become an important component of capex budgets – a trend we’ve already seen begin in recent quarters (see graphs). It’s a bit of a full circle moment. A decade ago, enterprises migrated everything to the cloud and software was king; now, companies are re-adding on-prem capability and hardware reigns supreme.”
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

$AIRS needs to refi their debt. Its a mega catalyst which we have no reason to believe won't happen. "term sheets on our desk". Been a frustrating stock and mgmt still has a lot to prove. Think they are the right team, but again, show me. GLP1 creating all sorts of new aesthetic demand. ASPS flagged lift/contour as the defining category. Facial fat grafting +39%, brow lift +29%, upper body lift +22%, arm lift +21%, neck lift +21%, thigh lift +20%, facelift +13%, breast lift +8% — broadest gains in the report, tied to post-GLP-1 skin laxity. AIRS has direct shots on goal to address much of this (not all). They also have partnered on AlloClae which looks timely. Checks here are encouraging. Minimally invasive still dominant by volume. Neuromodulators (~50%) and HA fillers (~30%) account for most non-surgical treatment volume — the space AIRS's new AlloClae partnership targets. These new pockets of growth need to offset what was a -1% lipo print in 2025 per ASPS. Still #1 by volume, though. Time to make it happen, Yogi. The opportunity is too big and timely for it to not start showing up. Start by signing those term sheets.
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

Deep Sail @DeepSailCapital turns up twice in our Q2 sweep. SK Hynix was one. Celestica $CLS is the bigger bet: Deep Sail initiated $CLS in Q2 and holds it as its largest conviction: after canvassing the whole space, it sees Celestica as the cheapest way to own the AI data-center build-out, with structural margin expansion and design wins secured in 1.6T and co-packaged optics. Deep Sail puts at least three years of runway on the build-out.
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

This is the fundamental reason we too like $SNAP. And the catalyst now is that a decade of Specs capital deployment with material negative ROE to date is coming to a cross roads. Either Specs shows enough promise, while fully acknowledging that the units sold this season will not be much due to price point/form factor, OR it's a pretty underwhelming event which will raise pressure to guardrail spend going forward. Wildcard would be some sort of partner announcement. We'd love that to be a minority investor in Specs such as $SPCX where we've found a lot of industrial logic. In any event, FCF per share is going up.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Old KEDM flag Butler National $BUKS continues to perform, and insiders are still adding shares on the open market. The last quarter (ending Jan. 2026) showed very strong, accelerating revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of>40%. As a reminder, Butler has a casino and an aerospace business (because why not). It's mainly the latter that is performing quite well. Plenty of aircraft need (military) modifications. Still 8x LTM EV/EBITDA (though EBITDA can be lumpy), strong margins, ramping cash flow, no coverage.