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$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
$CVGW RFG sale is delayed again (latest 10-Q stated will close end of July). This is the 3rd delay. Now unlikely to close at all. Will require a restatement of the last 2 quarters, revealing much lower earnings (likely negative EPS, negative FCF). https://t.co/lVsZZT37Cf
$CVGW USDA crackdown on Mexican avocado corruption significantly erroding import vols (region where $CVGW sources all product). S. America taking share at accelerating rate as customers (ie. $CMG, grocers) shift suppliers. $CVGW sales vol -13% MRQ. Current Q could be a disaster. https://t.co/KJgK8fXbM4
@Mike10947310 $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocados from Michoacan, MX. $CMG purchases ~10% of tot US avocados. Its latest ESG report noted “diversifying away from Mexican suppliers.” This latest drama down there will almost certainly accelerate sourcing away from $CVGW, etc.
$CVGW Bloomberg: USDA halting avocado shipments from Michoacan, Mexico following threats to inspection officers. $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocado from Michoacan. Potentially related to FCPA investigation given agencies involved. https://t.co/j15wm3bbIa
$CVGW Problems intensifying, another promised deadline passes. The RFG sale announced in Dec w CEO Cole stating “it will close within a month.” April AGM, he declared “I’m 100% sure it will close in May, likely sooner!” This guy has zero credibility and is borderline pathological https://t.co/Hg7gVfxeEF
Sow Good trades below 6x NTM earnings after retiring debt and raising $12.8 million to expand freeze-dried candy capacity amid rapid…
$CVGW Situation getting : 1) being investigated by SEC, DOJ for bribery, cartel dealings, 2) intensely competitive biz, losing customers/ share w zero earnings; 3) sale of struggling prepared segment faltering. None of this is priced-in yet. Next 2 quarters likely a disaster.
$CVGW It appears DOJ and SEC are investigating for Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violations in Mexico. Could result in fines, revocation of FDA license to distribute in US. Shocking no one is considering this existential risk. https://t.co/Icgbfgjn4a
$CVGW Announced expanded FCPA investigation by DOJ SEC related to Mexico ops (ie. cartel dealings). Likely large fines, potentially criminal charges. Customer losses almost certain, big grocers, restaurant chains want no association. Unclear how it isn’t down >50% on this news. https://t.co/KnTFnsTbcs
$CVGW Trainwreck coming--Delayed filing (again) due to issues w internal controls. Potential restatement? CEO has a history of playing games. Commodity business deteriorating due to competition. Desperately trying to sell-off assets.
$CVGW Just delayed earnings release and 10K filing date 1 month, changed filing status. Note the ongoing dispute w Mexican authorities for tax underpayments. That liability is nearly the size of $CVGW mkt cap. The jig may be up.
Campari’s five-year loyalty plan grants five votes per share, letting its controlling shareholder sell stock while retaining control and…
