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Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
Our $WRBY 'buy with impunity' call said on Friday afternoon that it is a 10-bagger. That was premature. By the time we got done with some of the best modeling work and research I've ever seen (props to Ian Lukasik and Luke Eissler), we arrived at this name as a 25-bagger by the time we presented our case this morning. Yes, Our call is that this will be a $500 stock in 5-years. Let's go!!!
Best Idea Short $OLLI missed on comp -- +3.3% vs 4.1%...and that's after the company called around to Old Wall and talked down comp estimates toward the end of the quarter from 7%. This was an extremely easy base effect...with a strong business cycle for off-price. This company -- if it was performing as it should -- should be comping 10% or better. Stock will be 50% lower over 1-2 years.
CALL INVITE -> $WRBY | 5-Year 10-Bagger That Starts In 2026 https://t.co/cpKbAGLwDM via @hedgeye
Wanna know why $WRBY is +10% this morning? Ask @Hedgeye
Monster print by $REAL. Best Idea Long. We went long at $1 with a call for a $20 stock. Admittedly, this quarter was concerning me. If I was running a book I'd have peeled some off heading into this one. That would have been the wrong move. Lo and behold, it annihilated numbers and guided up materially. @KeithMcCullough -- score another one for The Signal.
This $FND print is a VERY weak quality beat. Revs missed, with an increasingly negative exit rate for the quarter, which carried into 4Q. Pre-opening expenses lower, opex barely grew at an inflationary rate, and a lower tax rate accounted for all the upside.
$BOOT just took up its unit growth goal from 900 stores to 1,200. This is a joke. The company needs to cap units at 500. It's building a fleet of long-lived assets for a transitory fashion trend. Management at $BOOT is delusional... CEO left for good reason.
These $CVNA numbers suggest profitability is unraveling. Units looked good, in line w alt data...revenue accel, but massive EBITDA deceleration. Something ain't right here...
Monster print out of $NKE -- spot on with our estimate and nearly double the Street. Revenue and Gross Profit both ahead. The company is clearly filling the channel by returning to wholesale. Now it needs to EARN that space back with better product. Punchline is that people are underestimating the recovery EPS power, and this print proved that, in part. Stock is 'expensive', I get it. But will look cheaper over $100 as earnings and cash flow recover.
$BBWI at $26 might just offer the best upside/downside skew in all of retail across durations. The only one buying the stock today is the company, which is telling you something...
$HELE doing what it does best...Massive miss and even bigger guide down. Of course they're stripping out this huge goodwill impairment from 'adjusted EPS', which we won't do. Stock getting clocked, as it should. We've been short since over $100. CH11 is not off the table here...
This $DKS $FL deal is going to go down as one of the most destructive deals ever done in Retail, like, EVER. Right up there with $DLTR $FDO, and $MW $JOSB. We're pressing our $DKS short here, hard. And good riddance to our $FL long.
Seriously considering going dark on $RH from a coverage perspective -- so I can buy it in my PA. The risk/reward here is unlike anything I've seen...
$LULU guide down...and it still is likely to miss the guide. This company has more problems than a $300 stock is giving it credit for. Been short it since $470, and I'm not covering at this price.
Really, this Q is just $HELE being HELE. The company is structurally broken. Not investing enough to prevent a melt down in the core, while it overpays for 'average' assets, and tries to make up for it with creative accounting. Best Idea Short -- the gift that will forever give back... That does not mean it's a perma-short. The price at any given point in time matters. But right now, it's still a Short. @HedgeyeRetailJM @HedgeyeRetailRW
We went Long $BIRK this past weekend. The call was timed ahead of this print, which we thought would be well ahead. But the call is much bigger than beating the qtr. No reason why this won't compound to a double+ over TAIL duration.
Where are all the $RH haters/trolls this morning? <crickets> This stock could be $600 in short order, and it will likely STILL be a long!
Pumped about this Well upgrade of $REAL. We've been long and strong this one since a buck. Don't need to rethink my thesis until it's over $10. Quad 2 will likely take it there...It's got the hot hand right now.
Yes, $HELE just paid $225mm and levered up to buy a nail polish company. 11x EBITDA, when HELE trades at 7x. But don't worry, this will work out just great!
Today's Old Wall downgrade of $RH on liquidity risk is laughable. Reads like the analyst was fed a thesis by a hedge fund who's short the stock. I give 'em credit for making a bold call...it's just missing real clarity on RH liquidity and margin structure.
$CPRI only missed by $0.07 -- with EPS of $0.65. I was seriously bracing for earnings to come in closer to break-even given that nobody is running that company. Shows the resilience of margins at Kors. That brand is trading at 1-2x EBITDA, which is just nuts...
$LULU ripping today. Been short this since $470. But I think it's a better short today than it was back then. The stock doesn't know that margins are going to fall apart here. This story is going to end badly. Restructuring, mgmt fired. Badly... We're presenting a Black Book next Friday to outline why.
$CPRI is is fascinating on this sell off. When you do the math on a sale of Versace and Jimmy Choo (for 10-20% less than initial purchase price) it suggests that the Kors brand is trading at 1x EBITDA with the stock at $19. This market is throwing away the baby with the bathwater...
Great day to be short $BOOT and $CROX. On Boot, the CEO leaving is a massive tell. If he believed his bull narrative, then he'd get paid more by doubling the store base than he would at ROST. I get to TAIL earnings power here of about $3.50 -- the Street is double that. If I'm right, this will be a $30-$40 stock. Still plenty of downside...
